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The Rosebery Meeting. The best AW meeting this year and if there was this quality every Saturday, the discipline wouldn’t get many brickbats.
2.40 Vhujon Well drawn fresh front runner who could get the run of the race. His Redcar Tote Gold Trophy run is the pick here. FTO may be the time to catch him and front runners round Kempton are money in the bank. The faster surface on the inner track will suit. Evans is a fan:
“He’s like a machine. I always thought he was good and now he’s proved it. He works on his own and I knew he was better than the rest” (David Evans, RP April 2007).
3.10 No Bet, but Smokey The Bear is likely to perform better than his odds suggest. His Kempton figures over 11/12F are 123116.
3.45 Grand Passion was totally unsuited to the farcical Winter Derby pace last week and still ran on nicely at the end. Runner up in this last year, the luckless but gallant old stagers’ chance would be dramatically increased if Steven Drowne was caught in traffic on the M25. This is a clifftop horse for me and no other will do in the Magnolia.
5.20 One of the unluckiest losers of the entire AW season reappears in the Queens Prize. For ten bonus points, which horse does this describe?
“Dropped in and held up in last, repeatedly ran into trouble from over 2f out to over 1f out, pulled wide just over 1f out, flew home final furlong, just failed, unlucky”
Moon Mix, (NAP) trained by the in-form Johnny Jenkins and reunited with Guillambert tomorrow. Track, trip and surface suit – only the class rise is the question – was up to the Class in his younger days in France. This one has the look of a horse set up for this prestigious race and is excellent value at a double figure price.
Haven’t decided how to bet these yet. Best of luck.
Great call with Vhujon ~ a real favourite of mine and what a run to overcome a shocking start.
Top pick with Vhujon, Max. He put in an outstanding speed figure early last year, and that was some performance today.
Thanks fellas.
I do feel as if I fluked a profit today as all the other horses I found last night ran without much inspiration and this one got himself – and me – out of jail with a late burst. Nice horse, this – and a beautiful price.Western Roots has a much better chance than his odds suggest in the Great Leigh’s nightcap.
This AW stalwart is a classic example of a horse improving for “a change of scenery”, as discussed elsewhere on the forum/
The case is compelling: one from one at the building site; cast-iron polytrack credentials (winner on all four polytrack surfaces); carrying a relative featherweight (gets 14lb from the top-weight) and hailing from a stable which continues in good form (4 winners in the last ten days) and, importantly, a yard who enjoy winners on the all weather.
Despite improvement since April, Western Roots is still able to run off a 4lb lower mark compared to his peak winning rating of 74 so a case for him being well handicapped could be seriously argued.
Typically, WR is a non-runner. Drat – what a bloody week!
Western Roots has struck up a superb relationship with this year’s hot apprentice, David Probert: (14113). He is currently 9/1 and that’s the best bet I’ve seen all week.
Thank God for the all weather once again. Kempton’s September meeting is the sole Saturday survivor!
2.50 September Stakes (G3)
“Cheerful” Clive Brittain, like a few Newmarket yards, has had a season to forget, but the signs are that this autumn may prove an Indian summer.
Three winners for the yard in the last fortnight is a good sign for Lingfield Derby winner Hattan at a juicy price. If the race was 1m2f, I’d back it win only (record on polytrack 101) but the old horse could be done for toe in the final furlong over this trip.
Young Mick has to be backed for his amazing record on polytrack 430911122112365 and if any horse (and yard) deserves a change of luck it’s this combo.
In the conditions stakes, (4.00) I’m taking a right old chainsaw punt on Paddythefish at a massive price. Nicely backed for his Ripon debut and entered in the Middle Park, the juvenile failed to follow the script and ran too badly to be true. Burke is 12 – 66 when taking the long journey down the A1 to Kempton and iron man Jimmy Fortune is booked to make up the colt’s mind.
12.30Ling
I don’t like the look of potential favourite Danehillsundance in this one, although dropped in grade it hasn’t been running particularly well and would narrow it down to the following three. My Gacho has done all of its winning over 6f however ran really well in a quick race over C&D last time out. A reproduction of that would take it very close. Compton’s Eleven like My Gacho ran well in a quick race over C&D last month and would have a chance of a place at least at decent odds. Mister New York won nicely LTO and has won over the course earlier this year so would have every chance of following up under a 6lb penalty. At the odds I think I will plump for Compton’s Eleven EW although the absence of frontrunners in the field does worry me as it seems most of the runners do like to be held up.
2.30Ling
The two I like in this are Buxton and Fiefdom. Buxton won over the distance on Turf in September and although a little disappointing back on the AW the last three times is now down to mark which it won on the course over 6f in February. Its last run over C&D could be franked by a positive display from My Gacho in the 12.30. Fiefdom has been running well over C&D recently and I expect it to be thereabouts again today. At 14/1 early prices I’m going with Buxton EW with a small rfc with Fiefdom
Heyup Aaron!!
Nice to see you back. Are you playing this year?Anyroad.
Best bet of the day is Royal Challenge 9.20 Wolverhampton. By far the best record in this field when considering Class 5, 6f handicaps around Wolverhampton. Still well handicapped, well drawn, a good yard and a jockey with an excellent recent record. Tyfos is the big danger under Baker. Save.
Scoop 6 snippets:
2.10 Capricorn Run (111 in Lingfield class two 7f handicaps) and Fajr (12 – same conditions; loves Lingfield so ignore the recent form figures) are just too big in the forecast and one of them may spoil the Scoop 6 party. I love the Hughes booking for the latter. Holds Markab every day of the week. Atlantic Story is 10-15 on polytrack and could outclass the field though under the ol’ stoneface.
2.40 With Fortune up and form figures of 123531 in class four mile handicaps around Lingers, Spring Goddess is a banker for Scoop 6 players. The normally reliable Jim Crowley gave Ivory Lace too much to do two back and I can’t resist a fiver at ridiculous odds to recoup losses from that day. Too well handicapped to ignore and could well need further as she gets older. She’s the type to upset a few calculations.
3.20 I’ve been to hell and back with this animal, but under his ideal conditions, (1m2f, Lingfield, Listed class and in Oct/Nov/Dec (12512)) Grand Passion could surprise. I’ll back Ajhar back at 1m2f too, but this is the hardest of the four AW contests by some way and I’m not confident.
3.50 Leafy specialist Ceremonial Jade is many people’s banker for tomorrow. I can’t oppose it, but a big run from the in-form David Elsworth animal Swiss Franc wouldn’t surprise me. Highly regarded. The remaining horses have plenty of mileage on the clock.
(Fwiw, for a mini-Scoop 6, I’m on Charlie Mann’s horse and Left Hand Drive at Huntingdon and I haven’t made up my mind at Haydock yet – probably the hardest race I have ever had to assess by some distance. Jump racing huh?)
Best of luck.
Heyup Aaron!!
Nice to see you back. Are you playing this year?Anyroad.
Best bet of the day is Royal Challenge 9.20 Wolverhampton. By far the best record in this field when considering Class 5, 6f handicaps around Wolverhampton. Still well handicapped, well drawn, a good yard and a jockey with an excellent recent record. Tyfos is the big danger under Baker. Save.
Scoop 6 snippets:
2.10 Capricorn Run (111 in Lingfield class two 7f handicaps) and Fajr (12 – same conditions; loves Lingfield so ignore the recent form figures) are just too big in the forecast and one of them may spoil the Scoop 6 party. I love the Hughes booking for the latter. Holds Markab every day of the week. Atlantic Story is 10-15 on polytrack and could outclass the field though under the ol’ stoneface.
2.40 With Fortune up and form figures of 123531 in class four mile handicaps around Lingers, Spring Goddess is a banker for Scoop 6 players. The normally reliable Jim Crowley gave Ivory Lace too much to do two back and I can’t resist a fiver at ridiculous odds to recoup losses from that day. Too well handicapped to ignore and could well need further as she gets older. She’s the type to upset a few calculations.
3.20 I’ve been to hell and back with this animal, but under his ideal conditions, (1m2f, Lingfield, Listed class and in Oct/Nov/Dec (12512)) Grand Passion could surprise. I’ll back Ajhar back at 1m2f too, but this is the hardest of the four AW contests by some way and I’m not confident.
3.50 Leafy specialist Ceremonial Jade is many people’s banker for tomorrow. I can’t oppose it, but a big run from the in-form David Elsworth animal Swiss Franc wouldn’t surprise me. Highly regarded. The remaining horses have plenty of mileage on the clock.
(Fwiw, for a mini-Scoop 6, I’m on Charlie Mann’s horse and Left Hand Drive at Huntingdon and I haven’t made up my mind at Haydock yet – probably the hardest race I have ever had to assess by some distance. Jump racing huh?)
Best of luck.
Hello Max. Apologies for not responding sooner but I’ve been looking after my boy whilst the other half has been sorting Christmas out. That and arguing the toss over Kauto Star & Exotic Dancer elsewhere on the forum ! Yes I shall be looking for the odd winner on the AW over the winter again so no doubt will bump in to you in here sometime over the next few months. Might even make a visit with the old man to Southwell at some point as our AW experiences have been all at Wolverhampton as we seem to do very well there.
Cheers
Heyup Martin. Glad to see you’re joining us.
Care to specialise in Great Leighs?Aaron, I hope the pair of you do get up to Southwell. I could do with the help LOL. I’ll be playing mostly on Saturdays as I’m back in the world of work, but I’ll be having a look most nights.
No good whatsoever yesterday and all this talk about The Death of Value in the top room is making me think. Might have to change tactics.
Cheers Max.
Hi Guys.
Another newbie,but i have been reading posts on here for a while now.
Fairly new to the racing game and have decided to specialise on the AW tracks.Finally plucked up the bottle to post one up.
I like the look of Alpes Maritimes in this,goes well fresh,likes the track and has a good hold up jockey on.
Solid e/w i feel.cloffears
Wouldn’t put you off it but I shall chance a small e/w on Prince Of Thebes.
The 1.00 I am chancing Brandywell Boy who goes on the surface and although running under a penalty ought to thereabouts.
In the 1.30 I dont like the likely favourite Monkey Glas although clear on the ratings as I’m not convinced Lingfield and the A/W are up his street. Desert Dreamers record in claimers is good and I would make it between that one and I Confess who has run a decent C&D time.
E/W Torquemada in the 2.00 and old stager Siena Star in the last who loves the A/W at Lingfield and showed he is still capable by winning on turf LTO completes my five timer !Apologies for the lack of write up but work calls.
Hi cloffears and welcome to the forum.
Backing a couple of decent fillies might be the shrewd way in to the trappy handicap ending the card at the sandpit tomorrow. (3.40)
Efisio Princess was mightily impressive last time out and is definitely ahead of the handicapper. Loved the thick fibresand surface under her hooves and looks a Southwell horse. 3/1 is a bit skinny though – old habits die hard – and for a saver I’d back Robert Cowell’s Hurricane Harriet who might just be a bit better class than this bunch. Cowell has had thirteen sandpit winners since 2004 for a thirty quid profit and he clearly enjoys popping in to the sweet shop on his visits north.
If the price is big enough, I’m tempted to back Oberlin in the 3.10. Didn’t stay last time the mile and six last time behind a Fanshawe hotpot and has a much better chance today off a featherweight back at the Derby trip. Brave Mave is the danger.
Thanks Maxilon.
The thing that amazes me,and originally confused me,is the strong cases we all make for different horses in the same race,almost feel compelled to back all of them.
I have had a strong word for one in the last at Southwell too [ funnily enough ].
Count Cougar,ran a prep race last week here and is down in the wieghts,is much fitter for that and will like the extra furlong.
Good e/w.
Lets hope we find the winner between us.Hi cloffears and welcome to the forum.
Backing a couple of decent fillies might be the shrewd way in to the trappy handicap ending the card at the sandpit tomorrow. (3.40)
Efisio Princess was mightily impressive last time out and is definitely ahead of the handicapper. Loved the thick fibresand surface under her hooves and looks a Southwell horse. 3/1 is a bit skinny though – old habits die hard – and for a saver I’d back Robert Cowell’s Hurricane Harriet who might just be a bit better class than this bunch. Cowell has had thirteen sandpit winners since 2004 for a thirty quid profit and he clearly enjoys popping in to the sweet shop on his visits north.
If the price is big enough, I’m tempted to back Oberlin in the 3.10. Didn’t stay last time the mile and six last time behind a Fanshawe hotpot and has a much better chance today off a featherweight back at the Derby trip. Brave Mave is the danger.
In the 3.10 I would give a chance to outsider Inch Lodge EW. Ran a little better last time out and won a couple off higher marks this time last year at Wolves. Brave Mave as you say would have a decent chance.
Brave Mave won nicely, Aaron, but it doesn’t really count for me as I was bewitched by the 16’s available on Oberlin – who was the first beaten. Will I ever learn? Despite being backed from 9/2 to 6/4, Efisio was easily beaten by a rejuvenated Barron sprinter.
Cloffears, Cougar ran really well for a long way. Backed too. Do you think he needs five furlongs and a few more pounds off?
Hi Maxilon.
He was tried over 5f last time out,which i thought was his best trip,but connections, in their wisdom, wanted to try 6.
I think a change of track may help,possibly Dunstall Park as that sand at Southwell is tough going and his action suggests a quicker surface might be better.
As you say,less weight would be usefull,he’s one for the notebook anyway.Cheers
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