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9.20 Wolverhampton
An excellent race with angle after angle; not least 2 spring horses in Royal Amnesty (111) and Latif (13) in March/April. The formers’ chance is there for all to see – and should win – but the latter is 65/70 on the machine and I’ve had a nibble at that.
Rebellious Spirit is hard as nails but had a battle last week in the much missed Burgundy’s retirement race. You cannot give Street Life away, the Barker horse comes from a coldish stable and it looks too short for the friendless Quinlan horse so my main bet is Alexander Guru at a massive price.
This recent winner loves Wolverhampton, and this specialist distance (1m2f appears too far) and is an EW bet to nothing. Was one of the only horses from the yard to run well in Blanshard’s horror 2007. I’ve also backed the complete outsider (the terribly named Princewallywogan) to small stakes as a fellow racegoer at Southwell told me that Harris thinks this one is better than his form suggests and will win a small race before the end of the season.
Best of luck all. Max
Raza Cab went into a number of note books after his season opener at Kempton. He runs in the 6:50 at Wolverhampton tonight. Drops in class, and well berthed in stall 4. Nice price on the exchanges, might be worth a bob or two?
The Southwell/Cheltenham Champion Hurdle double is too enticing to resista, so for the first leg (2.25 Southwell) I go for my old friend Anduril to win the worst race he has ever contested. A Classified Claimer. Does it get any better than this? McInnes animal was unsuited by the pace and the draw last time; expect much better tomorrow.
Proper Champion Hurdle selection: Punjabi/Katchit
Bet A: EW Double – Anduril Punjabi
Bet B: EW Double – Anduril Katchit (I just can’t split them)Best of luck. Coming to the end of the thread for this season, methinks.
In the absence of Cheltenham today, how about a Mark Brisbourne double tonight on Buscador and Morbick? Buscador is outclassed on paper but I reckon could get another soft lead which he loves. Morbick is in great form and looks the one to beat on the speed figures
I never knew the Slipper was a member here..
I give [b:aespbu5f]George The Second[/b:aespbu5f] a squeak at around 25’s in the 5:10 at Lingfield today.
George The Second came nowhere, could’nt lead, weakened in the final furlong…
My last bet for the today is [b:4chwig48]Mister Completely[/b:4chwig48] in the 8:50 at Kempton.
I disagree the horse should be 33/1 to steal a 2mile handicap on any of the 3 polytracks from this kind of mark.
Lingfield 3:15 – Winter Derby
Off to watch the Winter Derby at Lingfield as part of my education in A/W course configurations
4/1 Dubai’s Touch, Philatelist, 13/2 Zaham, Silver Pivotal, Red Meloney
For me it’s between the front two in my tissue. Red Meloney will be considered for the forecast based on prices before the off.
See the main forum but I’m on pretty big ante-post on Silver Pivotal. ALso really like Grande Caiman in the 12f handicap. He looks one of the few in the race very much going the right way and the Wolver run looks very much just a sharpener given the ride he got.
Also think Tasdeer is potentially pattern class this year judged on his Yarmouth maiden win. If he settles I think he’ll be too good for what looks an ordinary field for the sprint cup. Not sure Lingfield will pay to the strengths of Paco Boy but he is sure to be finishing strongly.
Have a good day slippery, though not too good
I’m strongly opposing Excusez Moi in the 3.50 Lingfield. I can’t believe that people have got carried away with his last win: he’s 6YO and his overall profile is very inconsistent (its no coincidence that he won that after a break of four months). I strongly doubt that he will repeat the form.
And he’s never won over 5f! – and he’s against some specialists here: King Orchisios, Matsunosuke, Maltese Falcon, Conquest. I’ve layed him and taken 4/7 that one of those will beat him; a place bet on King Orchisios, last year’s winner, is tempting too.
My first trip to Lingfield and had a fantastic day as part my all weather course configuration education. A full write up to follow on the blog in the coming week.
Unfortunately though, I had to pay for the cost of my education. Like many a punter, I am now the proud owner of losing betting slip(s) from Barry Dennis.
He’s a ready nice man in person, not the belligerent bookmaker character who is the scourge of punters as portrayed on Channel 4
Horses I noted on the day.
If he gets the right berth and pace in the race, Atlantic Story will win a listed event here
I also wanted to back Tasdeer DJ but the on course market spoke volumes against his chances. Possibly one to consider next time unfortunately the cat is out of the bag so the price will be short..
The 5:30 summed up for me why Lingfield is considered to be a bookies track by the betting shop fraternity. The course configuration lends itself to chaotic races whatever the distance and grade!
What really blew me away (and something you dont get a feel for watching on TV) is the switch from steady pace to .. all out, pin you ears back maximum, warp speed from the 4 furlong pole as the horses started on the downhill leg
Off the final bend if you are a front runner, you might as well paint a roundel on your back. ANYTHING BEHIND YOU is in with a chance and the short downhill run-in can cause some serious hard luck stories for those literarily jostling for track position.
This was the fate of my best outsider of the day Twilight Star. If ridden again by Chris Catlin in the coming weeks, I’m on again.
I’m looking forward to seeing of Atlantic Story runs in the Spring Mile at Donny on Saturday. With that race being an early closer he runs off a turf mark of just 82!
3.30Wolves
I’m going to risk a little each way on Bahamarama at 25/1. Has run well all three times over 5F at Wolves and although badly in this isn’t the greatest bunch in the world.
It’s a funny little race aaron…
My feeling was that, unless totally gone in the head, Hurricane Hen ought to finally win a race.
Also, I like the chances of Johnny Friendly in the 4:00, against the MJ hotpot…
330 Kemp
I like the look of Wee Buns here at a decent price. Won twice and third beaten three quarters of a length in three previous efforts over C&D and with an apprentice who seems to ride Kempton well taking off 7lb, at around 14/1 a good EW chance.
The Rosebery Meeting. The best AW meeting this year and if there was this quality every Saturday, the discipline wouldn’t get many brickbats.
2.40 Vhujon Well drawn fresh front runner who could get the run of the race. His Redcar Tote Gold Trophy run is the pick here. FTO may be the time to catch him and front runners round Kempton are money in the bank. The faster surface on the inner track will suit. Evans is a fan:
“He’s like a machine. I always thought he was good and now he’s proved it. He works on his own and I knew he was better than the rest” (David Evans, RP April 2007).
3.10 No Bet, but Smokey The Bear is likely to perform better than his odds suggest. His Kempton figures over 11/12F are 123116.
3.45 Grand Passion was totally unsuited to the farcical Winter Derby pace last week and still ran on nicely at the end. Runner up in this last year, the luckless but gallant old stagers’ chance would be dramatically increased if Steven Drowne was caught in traffic on the M25. This is a clifftop horse for me and no other will do in the Magnolia.
5.20 One of the unluckiest losers of the entire AW season reappears in the Queens Prize. For ten bonus points, which horse does this describe?
“Dropped in and held up in last, repeatedly ran into trouble from over 2f out to over 1f out, pulled wide just over 1f out, flew home final furlong, just failed, unlucky”
Moon Mix, (NAP) trained by the in-form Johnny Jenkins and reunited with Guillambert tomorrow. Track, trip and surface suit – only the class rise is the question – was up to the Class in his younger days in France. This one has the look of a horse set up for this prestigious race and is excellent value at a double figure price.
Haven’t decided how to bet these yet. Best of luck.
29th March – Kempton
3:10 – intercasino.co.uk rosebery stakes (heritage handicap) (class 2)
Even though Pricewise has napped it, I’ve backed Philatelist anti-post in the 3.10 Kempton. Unlike the rest of the lemmings who has jumped on the band wagon I was actually at Lingfield to watch the Winter Derby and as most people have noted, Philatelist was cut to pieces in the final stages of that race by others jostling for position.
Not saying that he’ll win today, but that race was much better than this one however, I do “likeâ€
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