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Max
Wouldn’t put you off Buxton because as you say down in class, also back over 6Fand dropped a couple of pounds. I might give Mine Behind one more chance. They should go a good clip with George The Second & Chjimes both liking to force the pace so it would possibly suit Best’s other runner Monashee Prince as well. I would go Mine Behind, George The Second, Monashee Prince.
I’m also going to have a go in the last at Lingfield where I shall go for Josr’s Magic. Has run well last two times over C&D and might just be able to get his head in front today. For the forecast I like Lord Of Dreams. King After for the tricast
Max
Had a quick look at Southwell and…
Race 6 – i like the look of Blue Hills here with your fancy George Henson for the forecast.
Race 7 – I would be looking to take on the favourite here and like the Dunnett pair with preference for Kennington although I think
Gone N Dunnett is a great EW bet at 16/1. Might lay the favourite for a place.Best of luck
Max
Good call on Buxton & the Best horses. Hope you got a decent early morning price.
Cheers Carvs.
An excellent day for the thread.
Nice one on Blue Hills aaron -and an excellent forecast. Wrong way round for me, but I’ve had worse days.
Two belting races today at Southwell.
Race 5: What looks a competitive dash may not be what it seems. Andronikos would pick up the likes of Memphis Man and Sand Cat if we could guarantee he acts at Southwell. Sparkles of his old form appeared at Lingers around Christmas. In the anticipation he may be back to normal, I’ll be backing this one. Simply, P Coles horse better class than some worthy sandburghers.
Race 6: I’m taking a wild punt with this one. Three Boars, Calculating and Bentley Brook are badly handicapped, but strong as oxen on the sand. Any could win. However Trachonitis, who was beaten some way last time by several in the field, looked like it had some improvement in him and should be ideally suited to the race conditions. The ex-Irish animal looks to be steadily acclimatising at J Jenkins yard.
If you ever complain about your luck (as I do) check out Mr Jenkins trainerform recently:
102388342232
His luck must turn soon. JP Guillambert and Jim Crowley seem to ride his buzzers nowadays and the former rides later today. He is a big price and a sporting bet.
Best of luck.
Here’s an interesting one, bearing in mind recent discussions. I could have backed Trachonitis at 18 last night to a small amount, but decided to leave it. I had it at 20/1 minimum.
It’s now 8/1 in places. The Jenkins stable love a punt and there were definite signs that this one was better than it has been showing. A winner is a winner vs the tissue/value approach. Do I back it or not? And do I put more on it with the seeming extra information available that it is fancied.
Andronikos is very easy to back.
Interesting gamble on Imperial Echo – not much chance by my reckoning on recent form, however, if you go back a few runs, he would have fair claims if taking to the surface.
Though a leap of faith is needed, he probably was worth a small interest in double figs, but i wouldn’t go near it at current odds
Tempted to forgive Hills horse it’s last run – can’t seem to find any excuses for his poor run LTO though and that puts me off a tad
Well done yesterday Max and thanks for the positive remarks NV,Charlie D and Carvillshill.
Race 5 at Southwell , best of luck with Andronikos but he’s not for me. Not won for nearly three years and a new surface are enough to put me off. It seems to me as if trying Southwell is a shot in the dark by Mr Cole although it could all be part of a carefully planned coup ! I am going to go for Kabeer to cope with the drop in trip as he clearly loves it at Southwell and also goes well for todays rider. I rate Bonnie Prince Blue the danger if it reproduces its win two runs back.
Race 6 – Wouldn’t put you off Trachonitis Max and I would maybe wait closer to the off before deciding to bet. I certainly wouldn’t place a larger bet than originally considered just because the price has shortened. I don’t really like this race but I would side with Calculating who seems reasonably consistent and finished in front of your LTO although worse off today.
I’m going to have a go on probably the worse race on the card , the 2.10. I’m going to have a little EW on Miss Tilen who ran reasonably in a race at Wolverhampton before running respectably over C&D LTO. The 2nd in that race has won since and if she runs to a similar level has every chance of a place. For the forecast I’m going to try Coral Shores at a big price coming back in distance, although her previous run over C&D was pretty abysmal if she can reproduce either of her last two runs could be thereabouts. For the tricast Tobouggornotobougg who ran reasonably LTO over 9.5F at Wolves and should appreciate the drop in trip.
Forgot
FWIW Max, I have Andronikus as having decent place claims, but thats on his best synthetic surface performance
Here’s an interesting one, bearing in mind recent discussions. I could have backed Trachonitis at 18 last night to a small amount, but decided to leave it. I had it at 20/1 minimum.
It’s now 8/1 in places. The Jenkins stable love a punt and there were definite signs that this one was better than it has been showing. A winner is a winner vs the tissue/value approach. Do I back it or not? And do I put more on it with the seeming extra information available that it is fancied.
Andronikos is very easy to back.
FWIW I could never bring myself to back a horse at 8/1 having passed on 18/1. Make your tissue, set your price and back it if it’s bigger is my advice- whether it’s "fancied" or not should in my view be irrelevant if the form is in the book.
I’d tread carefully with that rule carvillshill. The more that Magic Amour drifted to today, the less value it became in my opinion.
In the end, I ended up backing Trachonitis to the same stake – and was unlucky not to collect. Could have gone either way. To lose to horse racings’ pantomime villain was a doubly bitter pill to swallow, I must say.
And I’m sure the hapless Jenkins yard felt the same way.I don’t think we’ll ever get to the bottom of this winner/value conundrum, lads. I couldn’t let the horse go unbacked. A part of me knows that I should have done, but the emotional consequences of the horse winning without me being on would be a lot worse than backing the horse and losing (which is the real punters’ dilemma imo).
Will be hopefully back for Kempton tonight – Lingers looks too tricky.
Best of luck.
130Ling
I like the look of the probable favourite here, Wrighty Almighty. Won over C&D in December in a race that has thrown up subsequent winners before running two good races at Kempton. Will be hard to beat I think, however one that might go close is Moonlight Man. Has run respectably in its last two runs and has dropped ten pounds since October. A good EW chance. For the tricast I’m suggesting Satyricon who won LTO over the distance at Kempton. Its fourth over 7F at Lingfield last year would give it a decent chance today.
335Ling
The favourite Halsion Chancer looks to have a great chance today, loves Lingfield and a good C&D winner LTO. I’m going to leave him for the tricast spot however and take him on with two others. For the win I’m chancing Tender The Great. A reproduction of its run over C&D in November in a decent handicap would give him every chance today. For the forecast, Super Frank.6lb better off with Halsion Dancer for a 2.5l beating before running really well when stumbling from the stalls LTO.
I like a couple of other races but no time for brief write up but they are
200Ling Joy And Pain, f/c King After
410Ling Monadreen Flyer f/c Mister New York
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