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aaron
I’ve not read all this, but it’ll give you an insight into all this time analysis malarky
http://www.horsestreet.com/products/par … index.html
and if this kind of stuff wets your appetite for more, a book worth reading imo is Modern Pace handicapping by Tom Brohamer, also if you can find someone who has saved the articles from the Weekender that Graham North did about sectional analysis, they are worth a read
125 Lingfield
I like the look of Barton Sands here. Although getting on a bit seems to have kept his ability after a year off running well over C&D and winning over 12F. Does need to come from off the pace so a little luck in running will be required but at around 6’s or 7’s is a solid EW bet.
For the forecast I’m going for Josr’s Magic who ran well over C&D before Christmas. Ran wide off the bend that day and only beaten a length and a half so hopefully wont be too far away. Lordswood who has been running well over 8F recently is worth another try at this trip and I have him for the tricast.
Nice play, Aaron.
In a good bit of form…I couldn’t pick my own nose at the moment, but I’m watching the thread from a distance.
Two knocking bets tomorrow at around 8/1 each. In fact it’s a great card at Southwell tomoz; toying with the idea of going.
1.20 Favouring is back in Banded company for the first time in a good while. The front runner’s form in such events is 112242 which is considerably more consistent than the remainder of the field. Ran really well last time out behind the Blockley improver. His form over a mile is 725260 which isn’t brilliant, but he definitely stays the trip and if promising apprentice can kick on three out, (1 stylish win from 4 rides) Chapman’s charge may have enough left in the tank to hold on. The stable like to use promising apprentices when they can and the 5lb will come in handy.
3.50 Gone N Dunnett is drawn nicely in box 2. He won from an inside box at the same track three runs ago and get’s Super Kirsty back on top.In Class 6 races at Southwell, the horse has run 31751 and is 1/2 over 5f. Main danger Bentley has better numbers, but is horribly drawn in 7 on the slower outside.
Bet: Each Way each and an Each Way double. (I can’t resist Government at a massive price either in the claimer, so that goes in to small stakes).
Thanks Max,
Fortunately I did a combined tricast to small stakes, however the other three races I played in I couldn’t manage a place.
I’ve just got back from Southwell, Aaron. Colder than a witches boob, but a good crowd. Nothing except rubbish bets to report – Favouring was quite fancied but the Bowring horse ruined it for everyone by harrassing Chapman’s animal for the lead. But that’s three bets on this one now and that’s enough. Government was out for a lung opener at those weights and so it proved.
However, be careful of backing low drawn horses next week. I’d punted Gone N Dunnett at 7/1 this morning before leaving, but had I been there I would have ignored it (despite the strong backing; best backed horse of the meeting – Mrs Dunnett was on tenterhooks in the parade ring and the horse looked ready to rock and roll). Unfortunately for everyone concerned, it had no chance whatsoever from 2 and Kirsty was very easy on it in the final furlong.
It appears that in a hamfisted attempt to eliminate the month-long low draw bias in 5f sprints, the Clerk of the Course has not bothered telling the inter-race harrowing man to harrow the inside. As a consequence, the inner track was like a massive strip of chocolate pudding and the kickback was very strong.
Good luck tonight.
Max
I was tossing up between Southwell & Towcester today and decided to go to Towcester because I thought it had the better card. Managed to break even thanks to the 6th race where I backed the winner and got the exacta. Didnt think it was going to be my day as I had 4 seconds prior to the winner including 16/1 & 20/1 seconds in the first two races.
As for tonight not had chance to look but I will have a little on Candy Anchor in the last who should have been placed LTO behind Morbick.
I take it you backed Furze Hill?
What a heartbreaker that was, all the way up that horrible straight. And to be beaten by Ask the Umpire too! (The old mutt). Watching that final furlong was like being chased in a dream.
Unlucky with Candy Anchor; the jockey must have thought he was running over 1m 6f.
Yes Furze Hill it was. I thought for a moment between the last two he might hold on but its a fair run from the last to the line on the chase course.
415 Wolverhampton
I like the look of Firewalker here who if he produces its second off 67 before Christmas should be hard to beat. For the forecast I like Weetfromthechaff who might benefit from the decent pace I am anticipating Firewalker making.
450 Wolverhampton
I am going against the favoured horses here with some larger priced fancies. Probable favourite Savilles Delight has been running consistently of late though not at Wolverhampton. Also never won over 6F on the AW as yet. Cape Of Storms has been running well at Southwell but not convinced he reproduces the same level of form at Wolves. I am going to go for Just Spike who ran respectably at the end of December after coming wide off the bend when off 60. Now off 52 and likely to get a good pace from the favourite. A knocking EW bet at 20/1. For the forecast Mister Elegant. Ran OK in a claimer here before Christmas before winning a seller at Southwell. For the tricast I’m chucking in Boisdale who invariably runs well at Wolverhampton and could sneak the place at big odds.
520 Wolverhampton
I like the looks of Right Option, Deccan Express & Rollin & Tumblin here. Rollin & Tumblin has been running well at Kempton and if able to reproduce at Wolves will go close although have a reservation about the jockey. Right Option won over C&D in October and reproducing that would have every chance although once again have a reservation about the jockey. Deccan Express ran well over C&D LTO on its first run on the AW and unlike the other two will have a more experienced jockey on board.
A tricky one to decide for me as to whether to go for Right Option with the jockey query or Deccan Express. I’m going to go for Deccan Express with a RFC with Right Option.
Not much time for a write up, but a good value bet might be Troubadour in the Listed race (3.50 K).
His mile record on the AW is 31431245. He has yet to race at Kempton and has a good draw. W Jarvis is in better form now than before Christmas and this horse was slghtly unlucky against Fajr last time.
20/1 available – saving with an Exacta with the Butler filly, who looks special.
Good luck. Max
Hi All,
I quite like the look of Blacktoft in the 3:20 Kemp it won over CD last time out and its running off a low weight, Get On at 7/1 !!
Couple of if’s about Medicine Path, but if ready and if taking to surface, he looks like he could be the the main danger to the jolly here,(who has now drifted to a decent price imo btw)
I know i should have had a 5-2 forecast as a bit of cover , but i”ve played Medicine Path win only
I like the way Medicine Path quickened, Charlie. Off a very slow pace too. I’ve not seen him in the flesh, but he is supposed to be a beautiful looking horse. Well backed today; a good selection.
Unfortunately Troubador is too slow for 1m on a quick surface like Polytrack and needs to go up in distance. Probably with eight flights of hurdles in front of him.
Some good stuff tomorrow. I’ll summarise in note form.
Race 1: Intersky Sports is unbeaten at Southwell. I’d lay Cerebus over the trip.
Race 2: Buzzing Boyzee is 5121 in sellers. Lousiade is 191in Southwell sellers and hard to beat.
Race 3: Samuel Charles is not the same animal at Southwell. (56P1490 over the last seven visits). Local Poet is possible wildcard (11504 at same track). A very tough race.Race 6: Orchard House is 3318 here but might need another run after last weeks laboured effort. George Henson could get Stewie Parr off the mark for 2008 if he stays. Took to the track like a duck to water on last visit.
Race 7: Is Egyptian Lord the day’s Mambazo? The animal would be a good thing on paper otherwise. 1914112158 at Southwell. 1111 at Southwell after a weeks’ rest. One for the travelling professionals. Gone N Dunnet is now drawn 8 after last weeks non event and is is better than that run suggests.
Lingfield.
Race 4: Buxton drops in class and trip in a weak race. Nicely backed last time, but is it all too short? Quality Street has good figures for the conditions, but is a heartbreaking rabbit who might not hold on at a track which doesn’t often favour the brave. I would lay both Best horses in the race – the stable showing has been ropey over the past couple of weeks.Good luck all.
In a good bit of form…
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