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Max
Very poor at Wolverhampton last night, you were better off doing something else. I’ll take the hint next time.
In the 2.55 at Lingfield, I thought Bonus was priced up on the style rather than substance of his win last time. Qadar and Red Cape both have similar chances on the book and with the latter having well-being to prove, I thought Qadar was worth a few quid.
All the best with Qadar DJ, he frustrates the hell out of me, but you normally get a good run for your money.
FWIW, I just couldn’t get away from Red Cape this morning, but as you say, well being is the question mark and i’ve ended up deciding on a watching brief for this one
Can’t seem to quite workout Kempton yet as the following will probably prove but I will give it a try as Southwell looks like a favourites day.
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Not a lot to go on, Busy Man seems to run well at Kempton and its LTO run would give him a decent chance.
Megalala ran OK in October finishing 2nd to Bridegwater Boys at Brighton though is unplaced in 9 attempts on the AW. Salvestro winless after 35 races, and I can’t find any reason why think that will change today.
Ponte Vecchio has bits of form and at least seems reasonably consistent, its run LTO behind Lordswood is possibly the best recent form on offer.
The likely favourite Straight Face has plummeted in the ratings and didn’t perform when favourite LTO, can’t have it.The one that interests me at 33/1 is Ernmoor. Its race over C&D in November was run in a decent time with Granary Girl, the forecast favourite later today for a class 6 hcap about 4 lengths in front.
So small stakes EW Ernmoor for me
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Compton Classic won nicely over C&D in a claimer in November but has struggled in hcaps lately. Maybe better suited to 5F as well.
Dvinsky won well over C&D in Dec and should ensure a decent pace. Some strong contenders like coming off the pace in this race so will probably find one or two too good for it today
Hucking Hill seems to have struggled a bit since winning over C&D in 2006. Behind Hythe Bay LTO and no reason to assume any different today.
Hythe Bay ran a little better at the weekend but an overall record of 1 win in 23, nought from 10 on the AW seems to suggest a win is unlikely.
Monashee Prince has won at both lingfield & Wolves in the last three months and has steadily risen as a result.Unplaced the last twice over C&D although both races were fast times. Likely to get a good pace although could have been better drawn.
Arfinnit won well from the front LTO after getting away on level terms. Would be danger if doing so again however does have a tendency to be slow away on occasion.
Perlachy has been running well at Wolves recently and does have course form from October. Only just broke his maiden status but I can it be challenging for a place
Muktasb is running well at present. As the RP states taking his riders allowance in to consideration is 2lb better in than LTO and looks likely to get the decent pace it needs.
Inka Dancer has yet to win on the AW in nine attempts and might have given Dvinsky a tougher time LTO if run was made earlier. Overall form not good enough for me however.Muktasb could be hard to beat with a clear run but I’m going to plump for Monashee Prince. Not ideally drawn but does need to come from behind so stall 2 not so much of an inconvenience. Its C&D runs recently as mentioned wer in decent times so at 16/1 I’ll take a chance. Perlachy might squeak second for a bumper Exacta !
2:30 Southwell 15/01/2008
I’m not a big fan of expecting horses to act properly on this surface and much prefer proven course ability. This handicap features four horses either new to the track or with one poor effort here up against three (probable) fibresand specialists.
Whilst the quartet without proven fibresand ability have all shown ability and include a trio with half decent recent efforts, none look to be especially progressive or any more than fairly treated. As such, I’m happy to concentrate on the three with course form.
Ballycroy Boy has won both times he has run here with the benefit of a previous recent run, and finished placed on the other two occasions he raced at Southwell when fresh. This compares very favourably with efforts on turf or polytrack and he genuinely looks like a Southwell specialist.
On the negative side, he has been put up a whopping 11lbs for a forestry job last time out in a claimer. Theoretically, he was badly treated with several rivals in that heat, but I have a strong suspicion that the result was more a case of his opponents not being able to run up to their official handicap marks rather than him improving by the best part of a stone. This is at least partly backed up by the fact that he was backed heavily and went off the 7/4 favourite. With 9st 4lbs here (OR 75), my feeling is that he has it all to do.
The form of Yankee Storm (2 from 2 here) and Diademas (1 win and 1 second from 2 course efforts) is tied together by their meeting just over a week ago, where Yankee Storm was sent off at 8/11 and beat Diademas ridden out by just under two lengths with 5 lengths back to the third and the rest of the field well strung out at the end of a truly run race.
This time round Diademas gets a 6lb pull and, for me, that is enough to give him every chance of reversing the form. Given this, I am slightly surprised that the market differential between them is so great with Yankee Storm assessed as being around three times more likely to win. Hopefully, this wealth of confidence in the Wigham horse may exaggerate the reality of the situation and we can exploit this.
Selection
DIADEMAS – £6 win
DIADEMAS to beat YANKEE STORM – £2 exacta[/color:36mj49l7]Really unlucky with Ernmoor, Aaron. First to come up against a JJ Bridger gamble and then no luck in-running.
Nice tipping though at a good price.
Indeed Aaron – good effort with Ernmoor. Have to admit to not thinking he’d be getting involved…
Cheers Max
I am at work so didn’t get to see the race, the Sporting Life says plenty to do 2f out, strong run to take 3rd near finish. Still I was on EW at 33/1 so musn’t grumble.
"Indeed Aaron – good effort with Ernmoor. Have to admit to not thinking he’d be getting involved…"
NV
From just looking at its form figures I wouldn’t have. However on the AW I seem to be having some successes with considering best times over the C&D of the race during a time period of 4 months ( races in January go back to September, February will only go back to October). Believe it or not Ernmoor came out top on that consideration so at that price and against the poor opposition I figured it worth a go, particularly at such long odds. Kempton up till yesterday hadn’t really proved succesful, however it does seem to work well at Wolverhampton, where after a poor Friday I managed a couple of winners and a 16/1 place on the Saturday.
Long may it continue I say !1240L
Follow The Flag – Dropping down the ratings and although only beat one home LTO was only 4lengths off the winner. Worth a try back at 6F however overall I dont think good enough.
Rosie Cross – Now a non runner
Monashee Brave – Won a couple of sellers recently though LTO was at Southwell. Don’t think this surface will suit as well.
Musical Script – Running reasonably well of late including good run when 2nd over C&D to Bond Becks in December. A repeat of that run would take it close. 1 win from 31 however and 13 place runs to boot indicate forecast material.
Crimson Fern – Respectable runs last twice over 6F though won its only race over 7F at Wolves. Over 7F would consider but not today over 6F.
Desert Light – Should run its race and 1lb lower than last win. However last two wins have been in a seller & an Amateur riders handicap and might just find one or two better today.
Majestical – Been running over 7F recently however all winning been done at 5&6F. Usually comes from well off the pace so wont want to get too far behind early on. Place chance at best for me.
Lost All Alone – Ran poorly LTO however was held up on that occasion. Its win over C&D in November was in a useful time and from the front. If able to do similar would have a big chance although confidence is slighty tempered by the record of todays jockey.I’m going for Lost All Alone to reproduce its November running. Musical Script who seems to prefer being placed is my suggestion for the forecast.
Not got time to put a more detailed write up but going to have a go at Kempton tonight
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The last time Nicada ran over C&D was a useful 2nd to Dens Gift with three subsequent winners , Smokin joe,Chia & Dushstorm behind. Good EW chance at 16/1. If Binnion Bay is on a going day could pick up a decent forecast !
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The two I like are Kamal & Tigers Rocket. Kamal should be better suited by a return to this C&D and should go well. Slight preference is for Tigers Rocket who has to overcome a 6lb penalty but has run reasonably well all visits here. EW at 14/1 with a reverse forecast.
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Wind Flow was 2nd beaten half a length behind an improver last time out and should handle the extra furlong, 5/1 would be nice. I have Play Up Pompey as the forecast whose October run behind Bowl of Cherries would take him close here.
Wolverhampton today, I should have been going but with the weather as it is I’m glad I’m not.
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Grimes Faith – Won easily at Southwell LTO however its last two runs at Wolves have been poor which puts me off today.
Doubtful Sound – Ran well both previous visits including C&D win in March 07. Last two runs at Southwell nothing special but wouldn’t be a surprise if it runs well
Chatshow – Running reasonably well without winning and hasn’t won for a while. Finished behind Grimes Faith LTO however this course and distance should see in better light. Todays jockey is a worry though.
Call Off The Search – Made all to win over C&D earlier in the month albeit in an average time. Has a lot to find with with Mafaheem on run before that and two subsequents runs have been disappointing.
Mafaheem – Been running well over C&D lately winning twice, a claimer & a seller. No reason to think it wont run its race again and the one to beat.
Phinerine – Behind Mafaheem over C&D and now worse off. 1 win from 37 on the AW and not for me.
Blackheath – Well behind COTS last time and no reason to see a turn around in form.
Now You See Me – Not a lot to go on but promising enough debut run over 7F at Lingfield. Poor run next time and coming back after long break.
Stormburst – Ran well only previous visit to Wolves and has been pretty consistent on the AW since November.Definite place claims.Quite a tricky opener but I’m going to go for Mafaheem to make it 3 from 5 over C&D. I’m giving the forecast spot to Chatshow just ahead of Stormburst though I might do Mafaheem to beat them both in straight forecasts.
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Not much between The Salwick Flyer & Aggbag over 7F LTO with TSF now 4lb better off. Aggbag however looks the more likely to stay the extra furlong so might come out on top again of this pair. Norwegian is back to its last winning mark and started to run well at this time last year, however its most recent runs are nothing to shout about. Star Of The Deserts last couple of runs at Wolves haven’t been too bad and could run into a place if allowed an easy lead. Private Soldier hasn’t been seen for a while but had decent form over C&D and if fully primed will take the beating
Private Soldier for me with maybe Star Of The Desert at a price for the forecast.
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A match I think between Nimello & Carlton Scroop. I’m going for the latter who has C&D form and has won before after a break.
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Abbondanza has been running really well of late and should get the lead again today and might be difficult to pass however could set it up for one of the finishers today. Alfresco was beaten 5 lengths by Abbondanza over C&D and only 3lb better off although has run well since winning at Lingfield and being shortheaded at Kempton. Gaelic Princess is just 2lb higher than when winning over C&D in October and likely to get a decent pace with Abbondanza in the race. Princess Cocoa was two shortheads behind Abbondanza LTO when a warm favourite. Same terms today so should be close up.
I’m going to risk Gaelic Princess at around 16/1 EW to mow them down late. Abbondanza to hold on for second
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Buscador is the obvious one and if running to its best should win, however if you can get Alasil at 2/1 place only i think this would be a better betting proposition
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Jaarvo has a good pilot and if reproducing it C&D win in May 07 would have a good chance but been a bit disappointing in its last two runs. Shantinas Dream also won over C&D in December and once again a reproduction of that would have a chance. Candy Anchor’s overall form isn’t much but its last run over C&D wasn’t too bad finishing just behind Komreyev Star who won yesterday. Morbick has run creditably in last two runs and a reproduction of its run behind Confidentiality at the end of November would be good enough to win today.
So its Morbick for me with a speculative forecast with Candy Anchor
Now where did I put that wheelbarrow……………….
Hi Aaron,
Great forecast in the first. WD.
I love Gaelic Princess. One of my favourite horses, but she’s pitched up in one of the best AW handicaps run outside Lingers this year. There’s a fiendish Chris Wall horse, an improver, (Abbodanza) and a lightly raced Chapple Hyam beast to consider. There’s been money for Emerald Bay too and that stable is in blinding form.
On the plus side, look at The Princess’s record in fields of 6-8 in Class 4 races.
47121 Only the two Perratt/Semple horses show similar consistency. She can handle the tactics. Trouble is, she seems more of a Class 5 horse at Wolver and I would have prefered Dane O Neil in the irons. However, no horse in the race is proven over the precise conditions and she is a huge price on the Big Blue, (26).
Also like Anduril in the 4.35. Needs to be delivered right on the line and has the only jockey in the field capable of doing it. Disappointing price though, unless it drifts.
Best of luck
Max
Hi Aaron,
Great forecast in the first. WD.
I love Gaelic Princess. One of my favourite horses, but she’s pitched up in one of the best AW handicaps run outside Lingers this year. There’s a fiendish Chris Wall horse, an improver, (Abbodanza) and a lightly raced Chapple Hyam beast to consider. There’s been money for Emerald Bay too and that stable is in blinding form.
On the plus side, look at The Princess’s record in fields of 6-8 in Class 4 races.
47121 Only the two Perratt/Semple horses show similar consistency. She can handle the tactics. Trouble is, she seems more of a Class 5 horse at Wolver and I would have prefered Dane O Neil in the irons. However, no horse in the race is proven over the precise conditions and she is a huge price on the Big Blue, (26).
Also like Anduril in the 4.35. Needs to be delivered right on the line and has the only jockey in the field capable of doing it. Disappointing price though, unless it drifts.
Best of luck
Max
Hi Aaron,
Great forecast in the first. WD.
I love Gaelic Princess. One of my favourite horses, but she’s pitched up in one of the best AW handicaps run outside Lingers this year. There’s a fiendish Chris Wall horse, an improver, (Abbodanza) and a lightly raced Chapple Hyam beast to consider. There’s been money for Emerald Bay too and that stable is in blinding form.
On the plus side, look at The Princess’s record in fields of 6-8 in Class 4 races.
47121 Only the two Perratt/Semple horses show similar consistency. She can handle the tactics. Trouble is, she seems more of a Class 5 horse at Wolver and I would have prefered Dane O Neil in the irons. However, no horse in the race is proven over the precise conditions and she is a huge price on the Big Blue, (26).
Also like Anduril in the 4.35. Needs to be delivered right on the line and has the only jockey in the field capable of doing it. Disappointing price though, unless it drifts.
Best of luck
Max
Double posting.
The case for Anduril running a big race in the 4.35 thickens further. How about this for perfect conditions?
Class 6. 9f. Wolver. Field Size 10-13.
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The favourite used to be as consistent as this, but at 8/1 this must be an EW steal of the century back with his original stable.
As for the headgear, he is 125 at Wolver without headgear and perhaps running without will perk his interest, (ran Smart Ass, who ran in high class company, to half a length at Southwell in first time cheekpieces for Miss Rowland).
Tuning Fork used to be much better class than this and might lead for a very long way. Will be saving a little on this one.
Like many punters, Luke and Jason must have backed Anduril because they too were very subdued after it’s, er, "interesting" never nearer fifth.
However, I thought about it last night and since Anduril last ran at Dunstall Park, the surface has gone from a superquick skating rink to an extended carpet of rice pudding.
Gaelic Princess was caught out too and was unlucky not to be placed. Had Dane O Neill been on board instead of young Travis Block (who never seems to ride winners outside the Morrison stable) I’m sure you would have dragged, Aaron.
As a confirmed hold-up performer, Anduril was never going to be suited by the new Wolverhampton oval. Headgear, 1m, Class 6 and Southwell (where, strangely, hold-up performers are showing their form) would be the obvious plan for this enigmatic beast.
I was going to back Fajr on a fiendish Lingers Saturday card, but I’ve had doubts cast – see Mavricks thread – and the form I’m in, I might leave it out. Nothing else appeals on the sand.
Best of luck. Max
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