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I think the form of Black Hercules second win is strong, personally rate Alpha Des Obeaux highly and three miles is definitely his trip, not the two miles he ran over against Douvan, which was one of the strangest bits of placing I’ve seen this season. Black Hercules is short enough now though and not having ran since must be a concern.
As I’ve said earlier, I’m big on No More Heroes and have a small bit on Snow Falcon, but I can see the reasoning in backing Blaklion. I think he and Martello Tower are very similar sorts. Both prefer three miles but ran over an inadequate trip last time, and both look extremely tough. Nether know how to run a bad race.
I think the form of Black Hercules second win is strong, personally rate Alpha Des Obeaux highly and three miles is definitely his trip, not the two miles he ran over against Douvan, which was one of the strangest bits of placing I’ve seen this season. Black Hercules is short enough now though and not having ran since must be a concern.
As I’ve said earlier, I’m big on No More Heroes and have a small bit on Snow Falcon, but I can see the reasoning in backing Blaklion. I think he and Martello Tower are very similar sorts. Both prefer three miles but ran over an inadequate trip last time, and both look extremely tough. Nether know how to run a bad race.
Willie Mullins said it was always the plan to come straight to Cheltenham with Black Hercules but the owner said it was a pity that they hadn’t been able to get another race into him this year.
Sounds like they need to compare hymn sheets before singing to the press
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, T42 looks well overpriced to me at 33s. I think Lizzy ballsed it up last time – the horse is twice the price it should be imo. I’m backing it and Definitly Red at 25s
I’ve just spent ages looking at the race and came up with T42 and Definately Red. Could have saved myself a bit of time! Think they’re quite closely linked form wise, added to which T42 has got first time headgear and horses seem to be winning from the front. Both 25’s at Ladbrokes at the moment.
Thought T42 was too big at 20s after the Lanzarote, turns out I should have waited. Never mind, think he’s in with a real chance.
Also have a big soft spot for Carraci Apache, so I’ve backed both.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I’ve backed Blaklion 14/1, Value At Risk 12/1, Out Sam 16/1 and Definitely Red 25/1 with a saver on Martello Tower 10/1.
Two things may explain T42’s seemingly big price. Nick Williams stable is once again struggling for form in March. And – although am a great fan of Lizzie Kelly, she imo gives an advantage of two or three pounds in handicaps… She is not able to claim in these conditions races. So the opposite is true here, horse is effectively carrying overweight. Backed Blaklion for similar reason, Sam Twister replacing claimer unable to claim in recent races – Ryan Hatch. Think Blaklion is better than able to show. Saw/backed him in the Challow, staying on 3rd, 3m is going to suit. Winner and second franked the form, running excellent races in Neptune, Parlour Games 2nd and 4th Vyta Du Rock, both a bit unlucky. Former came from the back in slowly run race and latter making a bad mistake at the last, costing him a place. T42 not for me, but definitely Definitely Red. Stable in cracking form of late. Horse finds more when needed and has the right man in the saddle for a prominent ride, Richard Johnson.
Can see why the top two in the market are favourite and second fav, but why are they so far in front of the others?
I was there when Value At Risk had his hurdles debut at Newbury, impressive. Then went to Cheltenham where a slowly run 2 1/2 did not suit. Coming back at the winner after looking sure to drop away. Extremely well thought of by up and coming stable.
Out Sam is another that impressed at Newbury before going on to another good victory at Ascot.
I’ve saved on Martello Tower. Staying on really well in 2nd in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown last time out. Coming out the best horse at the weights. Should step up again back at 3m.
Value Is EverythingMilsean just finished runner up at 33/1 at Cheltenham. Beaten the last twice at 4/5 and 1/4.
Davy Russell commented after the Windsor Lad run that its all about one day, seeming to imply results earlier in the season are somehow irrelevant.
They are not irrelevant to punters who lose money when clearly horses were not conditioned to do themselves justice.
Will the stewards/authorities take any action?
I knew Tea For Two was done for after his poor effort last time. There was nothing to suggest that the extra distance was going to suit. His best form was forcing the pace over shorter and to me that’s what they should get back to doing with him. The stable are out of form here as well.
Blaklion was disappointing but then the stable came here with little more than a handful of contenders and they have had a week to forget completely to this point.
A tough old finish and some game staying from the leading three home.
Black Hercules went off, as I had pondered he might, at silly odds. It has been a great week for the stable but they can’t all win and he was one of my lays of the meeting.
Hard lines to Thehorsesmouth if he backed Milsean. I know Tommy gave a good word for the horse early doors and then had to see him disappoint rather badly. He very nearly pulled it off.
Well done to Martello Tower fans, he was most game in the finish today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Milsean just finished runner up at 33/1 at Cheltenham. Beaten the last twice at 4/5 and 1/4.
Davy Russell commented after the Windsor Lad run that its all about one day, seeming to imply results earlier in the season are somehow irrelevant.
They are not irrelevant to punters who lose money when clearly horses were not conditioned to do themselves justice.
Will the stewards/authorities take any action?
Milsean needs to lead Ivanjica, usually finding nothing off the bridle (as last twice). Only puts it all in now and again. He put it all in today, may be Cheltenham suits him.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ivanjica wrote:</div>
Milsean just finished runner up at 33/1 at Cheltenham. Beaten the last twice at 4/5 and 1/4.Davy Russell commented after the Windsor Lad run that its all about one day, seeming to imply results earlier in the season are somehow irrelevant.
They are not irrelevant to punters who lose money when clearly horses were not conditioned to do themselves justice.
Will the stewards/authorities take any action?
Milsean needs to lead Ivanjica, usually finding nothing off the bridle (as last twice). Only puts it all in now and again. He put it all in today, may be Cheltenham suits him.
He was in the lead when turned over at odds of 1/4f – the more perplexing of the the two odds on defeats. It is a result that needs to be looked it imo.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ivanjica wrote:</div>
Milsean just finished runner up at 33/1 at Cheltenham. Beaten the last twice at 4/5 and 1/4.Davy Russell commented after the Windsor Lad run that its all about one day, seeming to imply results earlier in the season are somehow irrelevant.
They are not irrelevant to punters who lose money when clearly horses were not conditioned to do themselves justice.
Will the stewards/authorities take any action?
Milsean needs to lead Ivanjica, usually finding nothing off the bridle (as last twice). Only puts it all in now and again. He put it all in today, may be Cheltenham suits him.
He was in the lead when turned over at odds of 1/4f – the more perplexing of the the two odds on defeats. It is a result that needs to be looked it imo.
Yes Ivanjica, Milsean was in the lead at that venue. But what I am saying is Milsean probably needs a lot of things in his favour to “put it all in”, and even with ideal conditions only in the horse’s mind whether to go through with his effort. ie He’s inconsistent. As well as contours of the course, atmosphere (crowd) might have something to do with it. I also know Mullins is a great believer in ear plugs which imo make a big difference to horses at Cheltenham. Sadly we do not know which and when horses wear ear plugs.
Yes, may be stewards could enquire, but some pointless excuse will be used; trainers never say “he’s a dog”.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ivanjica wrote:</div>
Yes Ivanjica, Milsean was in the lead at that venue. But what I am saying is Milsean probably needs a lot of things in his favour to “put it all in”, and even with ideal conditions only in the horse’s mind whether to go through with his effort. ie He’s inconsistent. As well as contours of the course, atmosphere (crowd) might have something to do with it. I also know Mullins is a great believer in ear plugs which imo make a big difference to horses at Cheltenham. Sadly we do not know which and when horses wear ear plugs.
Yes, may be stewards could enquire, but some pointless excuse will be used; trainers never say “he’s a dog”.
I take your point Ginge, but I suppose it is one of a few results that has particularly infuriated me. I was having my best season over jumps for a long while until the wheels well and truly came off on and since the Leopardstown Hennessy weekend. I looked back over my stats last night and since October if I had avoided all Irish racing (85% of which were 6/4 or shorter) I would have been in a really good position going into a Festival that has been kind to followers of form in the Graded races. Putting it another way instead of £50 each way on Coneygree it would have been more like £500.
I know I have only myself to blame as for years friends and colleagues have said avoid domestic Irish racing like the plague because it is riddled with “strange” results but I always let my guard down and then end up doing a load chasing.
Hopefully going forward I can learn my lesson and just be patient and only back Irish trained horses in the big UK meetings.
Know nothing about Snow Falcon, Tommy, but your vote is good enough for me. Unusually, 365 who are NRNB everything, are far and away biggest at 40s, at which I’ve had a tenner!
Unfortunately ran in the Neptune, where he ran a cracker, but would have been better suited to the three mile race.
Hard lines to Thehorsesmouth if he backed Milsean. I know Tommy gave a good word for the horse early doors and then had to see him disappoint rather badly. He very nearly pulled it off.
Well done to Martello Tower fans, he was most game in the finish today.
Hadn’t a penny on David, when I put him up I thought he was the sort who could run well if the ground was on the soft side, but when he disappointed so badly I thought he was one to watch rather than back.
I was all over No More Heroes at 14/1 (e/w thankfully) who was the horse to take from the race for me. He’s a bit awkward at his hurdles and fences could be the making of him.
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