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Oooooooph, time to get some money down on Mount Benbulben if that’s correct Zarks. And Ipsos Du Berlais looks a good e/w squeak.
Lucinda Russell’s Brindisi Breeze put himself firmly into the Albert Bartlett picture with a convincing win at Haydock today. If there’s one concern it’s that he may need cut in the ground.
If Brindisi Breeze was trained by Mullins he would now be favourite.
What did everyone think of the facile success of Brindisi Breeze yesterday?Can’t help but think if he was trained by Nicholls or Henderson he’d be half the price he is now for this race?!
Well, having looked at the trends and figures, a resounding agreement to the 3 chaps above – as long as Boston Bob doesn’t run.
Brindisi Breeze has the recent form, the RPR & an excellent topspeed figure.
I haven’t finished my research by any means as I’m too tired to speak, but 2005-07, 7 horses with a topspeed figure of 130+ over hurdles ran in the Albert Bartlett. They finished; 1232310.
The Tother One, Pride of Dulcote & Kennel Hill also all placed between 2008 and 2010 after recording similar figures. Bob’s Worth had run to 129 before winning last year.
Brindisi Breeze’s figure? 142. Also by King’s Theatre, a Cheltenham specialist sire, and also won the 3m Novice Hurdle at Haydock that Nenuphar Collonges & Moulin Riche took part in en route to winning this race – they both finished 2nd.
Let’s also have a look at RPRs. 2005-07, 7 runners had achieved a 145+ RPR over hurdlers. They finished; 1311480
If you combine the 145RPR+ and the 130+ Topspeed figures, you get 4 horses; 1310
Pride of Dulcote also met those 2 trends (finished 2nd), and Bob’s Worth was just 1 below the 130 topspeed threshhold.
Brindisi Breeze’s RPR? 150.
The stats say only Boston Bob, Brindisi Breeze, Mount Benbulben, Benefficient, Ipsos Du Berlais & Alderwood can win. They’ve both reached the 145RPR barrier and also the 100 topspeed barrier.
Alderwood surely doesn’t run after his awful run LTO, Benefficient surely goes for the Neptune or even the Supreme (and is also by Beneficial), Ipsos du Berlais is trained by Noel Meade and Mount Benbulben is also by Beneficial.
Brindisi Breeze, Grand Vision, Cape Dutch & Meister Eckhart are the only 4 to have gotten 130+ topspeed ratings, but the latter 3 are all severely lacking on their RPRs.
Better ground won’t be a problem for Brindisi Breeze either
If Mullins sends Boston Bob to the Neptune, then i think i can whittle this down to a couple of runners now, with maybe an each way on the day as there’s a couple of potential improvers in here.
I haven’t finished my research by any means as I’m too tired to speak, but 2005-07, 7 horses with a topspeed figure of 130+ over hurdles ran in the Albert Bartlett. They finished; 1232310.
The Tother One, Pride of Dulcote & Kennel Hill also all placed between 2008 and 2010 after recording similar figures. Bob’s Worth had run to 129 before winning last year.
Brindisi Breeze’s figure? 142. Also by King’s Theatre, a Cheltenham specialist sire, and also won the 3m Novice Hurdle at Haydock that Nenuphar Collonges & Moulin Riche took part in en route to winning this race – they both finished 2nd.
Let’s also have a look at RPRs. 2005-07, 7 runners had achieved a 145+ RPR over hurdlers. They finished; 1311480
If you combine the 145RPR+ and the 130+ Topspeed figures, you get 4 horses; 1310
Ok, finished looking. The standard of the Albert Bartlett is definitely going up. Indeed Bob’s Worth was handed a higher rating than First Lieutenant after the Festival last year. It’s changing from the perceived slow-boat race into a very hot little contest.
2005-07, 7 horses with a topspeed rating of 130+. 7 horses with a RPR of 145+. 1232310 & 1311480 respectively.
2008-11, 11 horses with a topspeed rating of 130+, 15 with a RPR of 145+. 30245P37FU5 & 5001245P1FPP13P
If you allow a bit of leeway for the topspeed figure, you’ll find Bob’s Worth on 129, meaning the record looks slightly better; 300245P37FU15
My overriding feeling about these numbers comes from the 245P you see towards the start. What an unbelievable horse Weapon’s Amnesty is around Cheltenham. Extraordinary. The hottest Albert Bartlett we’ve had by far on the figures.
When Bobs Worth wins the RSA he will be the second horse to perform the double too.
Already looking forward to seeing Boston Bob and Rocky Creek over the big ones.
Totally agree with Brindisi, did a similar review of RPR’s for past races to yours Zark. not as detailed but led me to want to be on Ipsos, Brind, Boston Bob and Mount Benbulben.
For me i like Ipsos but am concerned about the ground more than meade. Mount Benbulben I am confident will be reversed by ipsos if they meet. Thing I like about ipsos is he runs like a lot of top staying hurdlers, constantly getting bustled along but gradually responding.
Brindisi has the RPR and topspeed along with his fantastic jumping whereby he takes a lenght or two at speed out the field, that is some asset. If Bob goes to the neptune which has to be more likely now Fingal is gone, that 12-1 will look huge!!!!
Rocky Creek is on a steep upwards curve if progression from first to second hurdles is anything to go by. Would not be surprised if he made a bug claim. Purely on the type of horses that have won, he has only ran a couple of times over hurdles which is a little worry however as Zarks points out the race is attracting classier types and he might be very smart. 8/1 is a bit small though. Saver.
All indications are Boston Bob is Neptune bound, so comes down Sea of Thunder, Mount Belbuben and Sea of Thunder (10s and 16s) and wondering whether to go Birindisi Breeze just to cover myself. Do not rate Ipsos Du Berlais as a threat in the slightest.
JJM: I would not worry about the Northern horse, has a lot to prove to be in the same league as Sea of Thunder and Mount Bulbulen mate
Not many Northern horses manage to survive the battle of Cheltenham mate
Obviously you get the odd one BUT not too many
Contrary Mary – Not like you Zarks
What can I say? People are idiots
Disclaimer – For those of you lacking a sense of humour, the above is simply meant as a humourous throw-away line and shouldn’t be taken seriously in any shape or form. I cannot be held accountable for any offence you may taken, nor will you be able to sue me in a court of law if offence is indeed taken. I thank you for your consideration & wish you a pleasant day.
After this bollocks yesterday – https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 27&start=0 (starts towards the bottom) – I don’t know if people would understand any of the jokes.
I have to say i think sea of thunder is seriously flattered and overrated. I was on him like just about everyone after his cheltenham form however his hurdle record is dire.
does anyone want to be on a horse in the AB with one win out of 8
His best rpr is when tipping up but even then it is seriously inferior.
Granted a lot of his form has been over 2m and 2m2 but i would expect Boston, Brindiisi, Mount B and ipsos all to run better than a best effort 126 over 2miles.
The race he was winning at kempton was impressive and i might get lucky because i committed a few points at decent prices but the horses he was beating that day are no way near AB class.
I have to say i think sea of thunder is seriously flattered and overrated. I was on him like just about everyone after his cheltenham form however his hurdle record is dire.
does anyone want to be on a horse in the AB with one win out of 8
His best rpr is when tipping up but even then it is seriously inferior.
Granted a lot of his form has been over 2m and 2m2 but i would expect Boston, Brindiisi, Mount B and ipsos all to run better than a best effort 126 over 2miles.
The race he was winning at kempton was impressive and i might get lucky because i committed a few points at decent prices but the horses he was beating that day are no way near AB class.
Agreed. He’s really rated in the betting based on one run. That particular race, whilst at Cheltenham, was pretty poor.
Perhaps Cheltenham really does suit him, but thats the only tangible argument i can make for him being a possible of winner of this race, because every other piece of form he has isn’t good enough to be very competitive in this.
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