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This is a race that by its very nature takes shape a little later than the other novice events. Having said that at Newcastle today Racing Pulse made a couple of reasonable novices look like selling platers. It was a fairly run 2m6f and as he had already trotted up in an extended bumper you would think the Albert Bartlett would represent an obvious target. If he were trained by Willie Mullins he would be vying for favouritism so the 33/1 quote from SkyBet looks much too big.
I think you need look no further than today’s slick-jumping ground-grabbing enthusiast, Kings Chance
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Is this looking to be a Kings Palace vs Briar Hill match or is there a cheeky outsider to be wary of?
For me it’s hard to get away from Kings Palace. Almost looks too good to be true but ticks all of the right boxes and I think he will take all the beating.
I think Oscar Rock could still play a part but he hasn’t progressed as much as seemed likely.
There are a few horses who’ve put in very good performances at around 2m4f, 2m5f but King’s Palace’s has proven himself at the course over 3m+. Also, i watch his races and contemplate likely scenarios in this years race and i can’t help but think about Brindisi Breeze winning from the front two years ago. He was a proven stayer and whilst most people expected him to be pegged back when challenged by Boston Bob, he wasn’t stopping and pinged the last hurdle.
Briar Hill the likely challenger.
Captain Cutter will probably start and is improving
Royal Boy likely to be Neptune bound, as is Red Sherlock
A couple of others like Deputy Dan and Champagne West who i think would struggle to keep with KP unless it was soft.I haven’t yet checked for a distance trend in the race. I haven’t seen one mentioned.
I argued against Kings Palace on the main thread a couple of months ago. Since that time the actual form of his races has taken one knock after another. Strangely, despite remaining in his box, his price has continued to contract. For me he remains the worst ante-post favourite at the Festival.
Brindisi Breeze was 12/1 after Haydock and that was a stronger piece of form than anything Kings Palace has produced and it was also much closer to the Festival.
Why has the form of King’s Palace taken " one knock after another " ?
Creepy = won a Grade 2 after finishing 18 lengths second.
KP’s performance seems to have been round the 150 mark.Masters Hill, Potters Cross = finished 14 and 33 lengths behind KP and confirmed that form when finishing 9 and 23 lengths behind Deputy Dan in another Grade 2 at Warwick
KP puts in an improved display.I’ve not seen any sectionals for these races but the manner in which he beats these horses suggests they simply cannot live with King’s Palace’s pace in the latter half of the race, and he continues to jump well and maintain this up the hill.
No question marks as regards stamina or course form – look through the other principals and see how many times that applies.
Brindisi Breeze was a big price after Haydock but the runners from the Pipe yard will nearly always attract more money.
You might question the price but i think the horse has very strong claims.
Kings Palace is a superb, nimble jumper and added to his ability to maintain a strong gallop he looks a very worthy favourite. The one concern is his absence since December. I really do not like a horse to go into battle without a run under his belt since before mid January. Dynaste was the same last year, likewise Grand Crus in his RSA.
I have a bit of 20/1 on Clondaw Court – really looked the business at Thurles last time out, a step up on his Christmas run where he jumped too big after slipping at the first. It seems like Ruby is ultra sweet on Briar Hill, although he has spoken highly of CC.
Why has the form of King’s Palace taken " one knock after another " ?
Creepy = won a Grade 2 after finishing 18 lengths second.
KP’s performance seems to have been round the 150 mark.Masters Hill, Potters Cross = finished 14 and 33 lengths behind KP and confirmed that form when finishing 9 and 23 lengths behind Deputy Dan in another Grade 2 at Warwick
KP puts in an improved display.I’ve not seen any sectionals for these races but the manner in which he beats these horses suggests they simply cannot live with King’s Palace’s pace in the latter half of the race, and he continues to jump well and maintain this up the hill.
All the earlier form was discussed on the previous thread. Since that thread I don’t think any horse that has finished behind him has won a race. The likes of hard-pulling Creepy, ex-chaser Masters Hill and soft-ground plodder Potters Cross wouldn’t have a prayer in a reasonable Albert Bartlett. Deputy Dan dismissed Masters Hill just as easily and what is he quoted 16/20-1?
Kings Palace is a superb, nimble jumper and added to his ability to maintain a strong gallop he looks a very worthy favourite. The one concern is his absence since December. I really do not like a horse to go into battle without a run under his belt since before mid January. Dynaste was the same last year, likewise Grand Crus in his RSA.
I have a bit of 20/1 on Clondaw Court – really looked the business at Thurles last time out, a step up on his Christmas run where he jumped too big after slipping at the first. It seems like Ruby is ultra sweet on Briar Hill, although he has spoken highly of CC.
Yeah, i’d have preferred to have seen him race this year. Black Jack Ketchum the only horse to win without a recent prep run.
Incidentally, BJK won the Brit Insurance as favourite, like KP. He then lined up in March as Evens favourite.
2005 Moulin Riche – Had not won over 3 miles, placed in a Graded hurdle, had course form. Sire 12.1 stamina index
2006 Black Jack Ketchum – Had won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had course form
2007 Wichita Lineman – Had not won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had course form. Sire 11.4 SI
2008 Nenuphar Collonges – Had won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had course form
2009 Weapons Amnesty – Had won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had no course form
2010 Bertie’s Dream – Had not won over 3 miles, had not won a Graded race, had course form. Sire has no SI.
2011 Bobs Worth – Had not won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had course form. Sire SI 12.4
2012 Brindisi Breeze – Had won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had no course form
2013 At Fisher’s Cross – Had won over 3 miles, had won a Graded hurdle, had course form
So roughly speaking, it’s slightly preferable for the horse to have won over 3 miles. If not, Graded form and an SSI of more than 11 is the next best thing ( although at the time Wichita Lineman won, his sire’s ( King’s Theatre ) SI may have been shorter )
Putting that together with the races i’ve watched, King’s Palace deserves to be favourite in a race that usually only a few horses get into. Most just do not stay 3 miles at Grade 1 level.
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