February 4, 2018 at 11:37 #1340770
- Total Posts 2603
Double figure odds still available.
Henderson could sweep the lot this year – good chances here, the Ballymore and the Supreme.February 4, 2018 at 12:49 #1340781
- Total Posts 470
But which one mark!!lol
I agree he looks to have a huge chance of winning this.
But I really like all 3 of his !!
Wouldn’t be surprised if he got the 1-2-3!February 4, 2018 at 13:03 #1340785
- Total Posts 2276
Yeah was good to see that coming out as i backed him after his maiden and again after his last win, mr whipped today is another who could be special
I agree mark, the closer to the fes were getting the more im starting to think he wont be far away, supreme looks the one hes least likely to win atm
Still with the likes of pym to come out, he has a solid enough team for the ballymore, triumph and the ABMarch 2, 2018 at 10:35 #1344517
Paul Kealy made a very good point at the BetBright preview night and it makes sence. He recons teh reason classy favourites like Barters Hill and Death Duty get beat in this race is down to lack of experience. They usually head here after 2 or 3 hurdle runs; usually on soft ground where they plod around at a slow pace and race off the home turn but when they get to this race the pace is much quicker than what they are used to and their inexperience stops them from settling and they have nothing left for the hill.
Past winners of this have been very experienced horses. Penhill, last year was a flat horse and was having his 17th start. Berties Dream in 2010 was having his 16th start. UnowhatImeanharry was having his 16th start; Martello Tower was having his 9th start which isn’t quite as experienced as the others but he was a slow horse. Another stat is that usually the winner of this has raced in a 3 mile race prior to running.
Based on that theory you can rule out Santini with 2 starts over 2 and a half miles. Chef Des Obeaux has 5 starts so probably the better of the Henderson horses but still inexperienced although he has raced over 3 miles.. Cracking Smart has had 6 starts to date including a 3 miler so he’s the most experienced of the market laders. Duc De Genievres, with his 2 starts at 2 mile and 2 mile 3 can be ruled out too.
The horse Paul Kealy put up for this is a 33/1 Nigel Twiston Davies horse called Calett Mad. Has had 16 starts and has raced over 3 miles on 9 ocassions; once over 4 miles. Might be worth having a small each way on him.
Blow by Blow (20/1 NRNB), for Gordon Elliot, and Carter McKay (25/1 NRNB), for Willie Mullins, would be having their 10th start if they lined up here; but neither have gone 3 miles before. Blow by Blow won recently and has a low enough mark so I/m sure Elliot might be thinking handicap route. Carter McKay looks likes Mullin’s best chance here. Poetic Rythem (14/1) would be interesting also; he has 14 starts to his name; he’s coming off a win and he ran 3 miles in point to points but he’s in the Ballymore as well and hasn’t gone 3 miles in a while so he may go to the Ballymore.March 2, 2018 at 11:25 #1344529
- Total Posts 780
You took the words out of my mouth Vautour. I thought Paul Kealy’s point was great. I have added Calett Mad and Chef Des Obeaux as a resultMarch 2, 2018 at 11:35 #1344532
- Total Posts 1894
Old Calett Mad feels a bit muggy to me – bit of a paint by numbers go on a mediocre chaser who has already been found out.
Death Duty got beat in this race because he didn’t stay 3m. Barters Hill got beat in this race because he went far too fast.
You see some fruity results in this race because there is often a pace collapse – a big field of inexperienced horses at a demanding trip, often going too fast for their own good. This is also a race where poor quality jockeys are found out, with Sam Thomas (The Tother One), Henry Oliver (Restless Harry) and a young David Bass (better jockey nowadays) all guilty of going too soon in their years.
If the good ones are given sensible rides (Townend on Penhill last year showed masterful judgement of pace, likewise Fehily on Unowhatimeanharry the year before), then sacks like Callett Mad won’t get a sniff. With good jockeys on the market leaders here (Kennedy/Russell on Cracking Smart, De Boinville on Santini, Walsh on Duc De Genievres, Brennan on Poetic Rhythm) you’d expect to see the best horses given optimal rides.March 2, 2018 at 12:14 #1344534
The jockey can only do so much. Experience seems to be a big factor, looking back at past winners. Duc Des Genievres could end up in The Coral Cup with Ruby on Carter McKay here.March 2, 2018 at 12:14 #1344535
- Total Posts 780
Paul Kealy’s point yesterday was that the ‘best horses’ have a poor record in this race. Calett Mad will get the 3m and has Cheltenham festival experience. It’s a sound EW play IMOMarch 2, 2018 at 12:41 #1344538
It’s worth noting that Paul Kealy did the same preview night last year and he managed to pick 2 winners of the 14 grade 1 races including odds on Altior in The Arkle. Hardly red hot form but then again I only managed 2 myselfMarch 2, 2018 at 12:43 #1344540
- Total Posts 1894
Duc De Genievres runs here according to Mullins.March 2, 2018 at 12:57 #1344543
That’s not final though. He said it’s most likely alright but they were waiting to see what mark he got for the handicapsMarch 2, 2018 at 12:58 #1344545
Had a look further back; Bobs Worth won this on his 6th start, At Fishers Crosss won it on his 9th start, Very Wood won it on his 7th start.March 2, 2018 at 13:06 #1344547
- Total Posts 2538
I think Cracking Smart is a fantastic bet at the prices.
He will relish the step up to 3m but has that bit of class about him too.
This can be real gruelling race and any doubts with stamina get found out here. The field will be stretched out up the hill as always and I think CS is strong enough to stay on up the run in bit with enough pace to stay in contention from the early stages.March 3, 2018 at 16:18 #1344678
- Total Posts 630
Cracking Smart out for the season.March 3, 2018 at 17:01 #1344683
- Total Posts 2538
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.