- This topic has 101 replies, 31 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Paisley park becomes the British version of cracking smart – outpaced mid-race but staying on strong, some finish and some potential considering his jumping was poor… I guess not surprising with only 1 run over hurdles before today. 1 for the shortlist
Chef Des Obeaux looks a serious animal over 3 miles. Must enter the calculations
I’d be against him for this. He beat a real non-stayer at Kempton today and I’m not sure about his ability to handle a quicker pace on a quicker surface. He seems to enjoy easy ground and made plenty of mistakes out there today off an honest pace.
By all accounts connections aren’t even overly keen on going to the festival with him at all this year.
If next Destination goes Ballymore as expected, Cracking Smart is the obvious selection at this stage
Happy with santinis performance, connections said he needs a bit better ground so could still be a fair bit more to come after only his second start.
Nicky henderson said he will get an entry but at this very moment the plan would be to avoid the Albert Bartlett
For those of you on Santini did you the comment below from Henderson on his Unibet blog:
“Speaking of novices, I was extremely pleased with SANTINI at Cheltenham last Saturday and the further he went the better he went, so if we go back to Prestbury Park for the Festival it would have to be for the Albert Bartlett.”
It looks like we might just get to see him after all, which would be great.
Apologies. He also added:
“My first reaction was that he needs to wait another year and come back as a chaser but having spoken with his owners we might give it a go as he’s got to run somewhere and I think he’ll be much better on good ground. He’s such a beautiful mover, he doesn’t even take his feet an inch off the ground and we clearly have a very exciting horse on our hands.”
Double figure odds still available.
Henderson could sweep the lot this year – good chances here, the Ballymore and the Supreme.
But which one mark!!lol
I agree he looks to have a huge chance of winning this.
But I really like all 3 of his !!
Wouldn’t be surprised if he got the 1-2-3!Yeah was good to see that coming out as i backed him after his maiden and again after his last win, mr whipped today is another who could be special
I agree mark, the closer to the fes were getting the more im starting to think he wont be far away, supreme looks the one hes least likely to win atm
Still with the likes of pym to come out, he has a solid enough team for the ballymore, triumph and the AB
Paul Kealy made a very good point at the BetBright preview night and it makes sence. He recons teh reason classy favourites like Barters Hill and Death Duty get beat in this race is down to lack of experience. They usually head here after 2 or 3 hurdle runs; usually on soft ground where they plod around at a slow pace and race off the home turn but when they get to this race the pace is much quicker than what they are used to and their inexperience stops them from settling and they have nothing left for the hill.
Past winners of this have been very experienced horses. Penhill, last year was a flat horse and was having his 17th start. Berties Dream in 2010 was having his 16th start. UnowhatImeanharry was having his 16th start; Martello Tower was having his 9th start which isn’t quite as experienced as the others but he was a slow horse. Another stat is that usually the winner of this has raced in a 3 mile race prior to running.
Based on that theory you can rule out Santini with 2 starts over 2 and a half miles. Chef Des Obeaux has 5 starts so probably the better of the Henderson horses but still inexperienced although he has raced over 3 miles.. Cracking Smart has had 6 starts to date including a 3 miler so he’s the most experienced of the market laders. Duc De Genievres, with his 2 starts at 2 mile and 2 mile 3 can be ruled out too.
The horse Paul Kealy put up for this is a 33/1 Nigel Twiston Davies horse called Calett Mad. Has had 16 starts and has raced over 3 miles on 9 ocassions; once over 4 miles. Might be worth having a small each way on him.
Blow by Blow (20/1 NRNB), for Gordon Elliot, and Carter McKay (25/1 NRNB), for Willie Mullins, would be having their 10th start if they lined up here; but neither have gone 3 miles before. Blow by Blow won recently and has a low enough mark so I/m sure Elliot might be thinking handicap route. Carter McKay looks likes Mullin’s best chance here. Poetic Rythem (14/1) would be interesting also; he has 14 starts to his name; he’s coming off a win and he ran 3 miles in point to points but he’s in the Ballymore as well and hasn’t gone 3 miles in a while so he may go to the Ballymore.
You took the words out of my mouth Vautour. I thought Paul Kealy’s point was great. I have added Calett Mad and Chef Des Obeaux as a result
Old Calett Mad feels a bit muggy to me – bit of a paint by numbers go on a mediocre chaser who has already been found out.
Death Duty got beat in this race because he didn’t stay 3m. Barters Hill got beat in this race because he went far too fast.
You see some fruity results in this race because there is often a pace collapse – a big field of inexperienced horses at a demanding trip, often going too fast for their own good. This is also a race where poor quality jockeys are found out, with Sam Thomas (The Tother One), Henry Oliver (Restless Harry) and a young David Bass (better jockey nowadays) all guilty of going too soon in their years.
If the good ones are given sensible rides (Townend on Penhill last year showed masterful judgement of pace, likewise Fehily on Unowhatimeanharry the year before), then sacks like Callett Mad won’t get a sniff. With good jockeys on the market leaders here (Kennedy/Russell on Cracking Smart, De Boinville on Santini, Walsh on Duc De Genievres, Brennan on Poetic Rhythm) you’d expect to see the best horses given optimal rides.
The jockey can only do so much. Experience seems to be a big factor, looking back at past winners. Duc Des Genievres could end up in The Coral Cup with Ruby on Carter McKay here.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.