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BB beat GC without really having a hard race, should beat him further on Thursday; GC is chasing easy cash before he goes..chasing
If Nacarat and Deep Purple don’t stay 3 miles, how did they both manage to win the Charlie Hall Chase over 3m 1f at Wetherby?
The problem they both have with Aintree is that they don’t jump well enough for the Mildmay course. Denman is surely too short – agree he had a really hard race twenty days ago, and he’s also won only one of his last nine starts, not the record of an evens favourite in a Grade 1 race.
Interesting runner is Caroles Legacy, who jumps well, has made the first two in 15 of her 17 career starts and probably ran into a well handicapped horse at Cheltenham, but was some way clear of the rest. I’d take her over stable companion Punchestowns, who has looked like a horse with a problem this season, and wouldn’t have got near Pasco at Kempton if that one hadn’t bled and stopped to nothing.
Fascinating race – I’ll take the mare at 7/1.
AP
I’ve heard she’s in foal too, AP.
Nacarat just falls away far too quickly for my liking. He basically stopped before the 2nd last in the King George 2009, did the same this year, did the same last year at Aintree, did the same the other day in the RP Chase. Perhaps he gets the trip against lesser horses, but not against proper Grade 1/2 runners.
I’d forgotten Deep Purple won the Charlie Hall, but I’m not sure he’s properly gotten over that broken blood vessel he got in the King George. Hasn’t looked the same horse since.
Henderson 1-2 in the reverse forecast for me.
The mare is very tough and Punch’ has the form (if you are picky enough)JJM: Like those chances apart from Somersby who i think will struggle. They are all likely to be pretty short ones so rather than a yankee why not just do the 6 doubles and 4 trebles with an EW acca, you don’t need the singles as the 2 short ones should win, that’s my opinion purely from a maths point of view
Good Luck though
Zarks: I cannot agree with you re Deep Purple, if he can win a Charlie Hall (however weak the race was) at Wetherby over 3.1M he will stay the trip at Aintree on his head. I still cannot back him mind! I also like Punchestowns and the RFC with Caroles Legacy.
In the Anniversary trends dictate that Zarkander cannot win so i will be on Grandouet. However having backed Zarkander at the festival and ante post for next years Champion Hurdle i hope the trends are totally blown out of the water!
Should SILVERHAND turn up in the Silver Cross Listed HCap Hurdle (525) i believe he will go very well indeed and will have a large bet EW.
Great start to the Grand National Meeting
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Nacaratt barely stays 3m, and certainly not against top class opposition. Wetherby is one of the sharper gd1 courses nowadays, and IIRC, the ground is on the fast side for most of their meetings, anyway.
Wouldn’t back Denman with someone else’s, his record around sharp tracks is abysmal, (that’s his real nemesis, Matt Chapman, not RH tracks).
Punchestowns is unreliable, and Deep Purple’s gone at the game, so it’s Carole’s Legacys race by default, imo.Well you say Punchestowns is unreliable but removing his Cheltenham runs, his form is 1111121. This will be a last hurrah in my mind for the Nutty Professor. I basically stopped reading Nick Mordin 2 months ago, some of his theories are just baffling, but occasionally he’s been spot on in the past. Dangerous Midge was a huge winner for me at the Breeders’ Cup and I do think he’s spot on about Behkabad and Planteur and that the French horses last year were very good.
And I remember reading something he wrote about Punchestowns saying that he’s an incredibly fast chaser and if he skips the Gold Cup he’d be a very confident selection should he turn up at Aintree. So, here’s to you, Nick.
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PUNCHESTOWNS (42) looked to be in a hopeless position turning in when he was trading at almost 20-1 in running on Betfair, having gotten badly outpaced. But the lopsidedly fast early pace set by his rival made the race ride much more like a three mile contest and brought his stamina into play. He ended up bounding away to score in very fast time.
This is the third time in succession Punchestowns has earned a seriously big Grade 1 speed rating from me when he’s run outside of Cheltenham. He did win a class 3 handicap at the track back in 2008 but in five starts in higher class races at the course he has lost. He’s run well there several times. But a horse as fast as him should win most of the time. Losing five times out of five in class 1 and 2 races suggests strongly that there’s something about Cheltenham he doesn’t like.
If three narrow losses had been wins Punchestowns would now have won the last eleven times he’s run outside of Cheltenham. His wins include Grade 1 events over both hurdles and fences.
In the circumstances it’s easy to understand why trainer Nicky Henderson was saying afterwards that he might well skip Cheltenham with Punchestowns and keep him fresh for the totesport Bowl at Aintree.
As a punter I confess I’d love to see Punchestowns run at Cheltenham before he tackles that race as another defeat there would build his odds for the Liverpool contest. But whatever route he takes to it I would not want to oppose Punchestowns in the totesport Bowl. I’d also be very interested in his chances if he went for the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. He’s clearly one of the best three mile chasers of recent years.
Am torn between a Denman lay and Punchestowns bet.
Carole’s Legacy is small and may be even better in a small field over fences – could even be what she needs but has plenty to find – as arguably does Punchestowns. However she will have to jump these normally stiff obstacles.
Punchestowns has won 3 of 4 chases away from Cheltenham at odds on. So has only beaten horses rated inferior to himself! Whilst his times have impressed Mordin. His two main wins from near impossible positions (Pasco & Tchico Polos) suggest he’s one paced (he was a staying hurdler after all).
Carole’s is though the kind of safe play but even Denman running on a track he dislikes will be expected to run to better form than she has so far. Denman has shown a tendency to fall mind when stretched by accelerations in small fields on flat tight tracks
Punchestowns @ 6s is worth the chance but he’ll not be a confident selection. However the value is massive given the race may not take a lot of winning. I would have been with Neptune were he declared.
An argument to forecast up the next 2 or 3 challengers as well.
Having heard that Caroles legacy is in foal she will be my choice and a RFC with Punchestowns.
Silverhand being a NR in the Silver Cross Listed HCap Hurdle i will be backing Gordon Elliots RUSSIAN WAR EW, had a nice break but off this low weight will go very well and looks a very good place opportunity and may even be good enough to win.
For those interested Caroles Legacy is nearly totally blue on oddschecker and down to 5s in places but Bet 365 are still 7s.
Not my sort of card – particularly at the start with a string of short priced favourites. At those prices happy to watch Big Bucks and Zarkandar win. While Zarkandar remains a potential Champion Hurdle horse and given that he is unlikely to desert Hurricane Fly it seems a little surprising that Walsh has got the ride.
Carole’s Legacy was probably the value at double figure prices but not so sure at current odds. Two obvious doubts, Geraghty has chosen Punchestowns and her only poor run was with AP on board.
Hope Zarkandar absolutely bolts up, had a treble at chelts with Zarkandar, Bobs Worth and Baby Run and Baby Run messed it up, I think Carlito Brigante could cause a big surprise to Big Bucks, its the time again when we get Jim Mcgrath with his dodgy calls of fallers or horses in general.
I’m having a good EW double on Grands Crus & Grandouet.
Should be a good days racing tomorrow.
Good card, here’s my bets;
14.00 – BB most likely winner of course but no value at the odds, think Grands Crus might get closer this time if ridden more prominently, however for me
Carlo Brigante
at 11/1 is the value bet, argueably the most impressive winner at Cheltenham, if he gest the trip and I suspect he will superb e/w value.
14.30 – Can’t see anything troubling
Zarkandar
here, should improve futher from the triumph win, today’s banker IMO.
15.05 – Love Denman but not a chance I’ll be backing him, an infrequent winner and performances away from Newbury/Cheltenham leave alot to be desired, just hope he gets round ok.
Caroloes
Legacy
for me is the solid e/w bet at 7/1, tough as old boots and sure to give her run.
15.40 – Love
Baby Run’s
front running style and for me if he gets round he wins.
16.15 – Woolcolmbe Folly has something to prove after dissapointing last time out and is too high in the weights IMO,
Mamlook
has every chance here, one poor performance this season when ground didnt suit and this can be ignored. Classy performer over hurdlers, think he’ll be there or thereabout.
16.50 –
Merdermit
should be much happier back up in trip and I think he’ll be back to winning ways here although Wishful Thinking has a big chance.
17.25 – Plenty with a chance here, don’t think GMOOH can overcome the weight so have sided with the consistent
Bothy
e/w at 11/1, deserves a victory this season and surely must have major place claims.
Fingers crossed!
3.40 Aintree –
1pt e/w Silver Adonis @ 14/1
Initially I looked at Herons Well for the Fox Hunters but was concerned about its jumping. Has the tendency to jump quite low at his fences which would be a worry for me over the National obstacles.
I was one of the unfortunate group to back Baby Run at Cheltenham, and I remain that he would have won that day had young WTD stayed on, but another one I fear in the jumping department. Unseated last year in this race (and didn’t jump great up until his demise either), and made errors at Cheltenham. If he gets round then it’ll take a good one to beat him – but I would be willing to take it on at the price.
Now my selection has no worries about the course. Obviously any horse can come to grief on the National course, but it’s nice to have good form in the book. My selection, Silver Adonis was the winner of this race last year, staying on well to repel the reopposing Moncadou. That one may have been unlucky last year and could go well again this term.
However, Silver Adonis jumped very well on the whole (was slow at a couple and pecked on landing at Bechers), and stayed on strongly up the run-in. Is relatively young at 10 in this field, and looks capable of putting in a bold attempt to regain his crown.
Couldn’t really land a blow in some decent handicap chases after his success here last year, but was trying to give weight away, and ran respectably enough.
Looked to be primed for this race when sent to Kempton in March to give him a warm-up run, and appeared to be jumping very nicely when he unshipped Tom Weston at the 9th. Was creeping into the race, and didn’t even jump the fence badly. The winner was I Have Dreamed – who is clearly quite a nice horse based on his handicap form.
Ideally would have got round that day and finished competitively, but appeared to be in good health, especially since he has a poor record fresh. Hopefully despite finishing prematurely, that run will have blown away any cobwebs and have the horse ready for his challenge tomorrow.
Richard Newland’s horse have been in excellent form – 4 out of his last 6 runners have won, with Silver Adonis’ blemish, and Lorum Leader’s burst blood vessel stopping a possible 100% record.
Tom Weston is one of the better jockeys in this field, and boasts an impressive £47.17 profit to £1 stakes in chases.
Everything is in place for a big run, though Turko and Baby Run are obvious threats should they complete. Turko may want further, though, and did fall in the 2008 National.
5.25 Aintree –
1pt e/w Pateese @ 12/1
Another minefield of a race, but one down the bottom end of the handicap interests me. It is the Philip Hobbs trained Pateese. This French horse was purchased for £35,000 in July 2009 after racing on the flat over the channel. Despite not being a world beater, he did pick up a 2 mile Longchamp handicap in April 2009.
This obviously would suggest to me that the horse would stay a trip over hurdles, but Hobbs finally had the horse primed in November last year for his first run over obstacles. Ran a very respectable race after an absence, on heavy ground at Exeter – to tire late on to 3rd, having challenged at 3 out.
It stepped up on this, expectedly, at Newbury in December when running 3rd to Minella Class, with Red Merlin back in 2nd. Pateese was beaten under 10l in the end. Minella Class ran 6th in the Neptune Investment and is currently rated 145. Red Merlin has progressed nicely to be rated 130.
Again Pateese found one too strong next time out, when being no match for Buddy Holly at Towcester.
Pateese did manage to get his head in front at Ffos Las, however, on his fourth hurdling start. He stayed on well to beat Ballinteni by 3 3/4l. That horse had some solid hurdling form so it was another step in the right direction.
This horse continued to improve and ran an excellent 2nd next time to Via Galilei. Battled on really well but was no match for the Gary Moore trained horse, though the pair pulled clear of Sire Collonges.
Again Pateese ran a really good race in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. Was right in the frame until just getting done for speed by Alarazi, and Via Galilei again, but finished an excellent 3rd of 24 by just over 5l.
Is now rated 129 but I think that’s fair for this ever improving horse. Jumps really well for a novice, and is tenacious. I think this step up in trip is what the horse has been calling out for, given his staying exploits on the flat, and could give him a greater chance of fighting off the finishers.
Novices have a good record in the race, and off a featherweight, Pateese can give plenty of these a lot to think about.
Unfortunately for me, I’ll be at Ripon Races working, as opposed to sat at home watching BBC!
I don’t understand the hype around Zarkandar, he seems to have more than his share of temperament and was scrubbed along quite early in the Triumph. He could be good enough to win this as well with the lack of quality opposition apart from Grandouet, but will get roughed up I expect.
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