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How Starluck can be the same or shorter price than Walkon is a mystery to me. The idea that Starluck will do better on this track seems widespread, but where’s the evidence? If Aintree is better for ‘speed’ horses, how did Detroit City and Katchit win here after Cheltenham? Perhaps they were just the best horse in the race, which is how I view Walkon. He should be 6/4, not 11/4.That’s not to say that Starluck can’t win, just that imo the prices are wrong.
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Katchit and Detroit City were standout picks in their respective races – I don’t think Walkon is quite the same today. The Cheltenham race told me that he lacked the speed of Starluck but beat him for stamina up the hill – (in fact every race Walkon has contested this season has had an emphasis on stamina). Agreed, Starluck still has to go and win the race today and not fold up, but I think there is a strong chacne he will do just that…
As for this stamina/speed debate regarding Cheltenham and Aintree – what about INglis Drever? He was miles better at the former – was it bogus to oppose him with speed horses at this track?
Carvills wrote: "Really fancy Walkon to confirm form with the "wise guy" Aintree horse Starluck- if I can get 3/1 I’ll be playing big each-way."
You thief!!!!
That’s the sorta bet i’d have, EW AT 3 -1
zIP
Interesting tored on teletet last night that Hebridean is Nicholls bet of the day and King reckons Walk on is vulnerable to the speedier horses around aintree, exactly what I was thinking. Hebriden a big positiive this morning
TDK,
Surely Inglis Drever was a speed horse himself – how else did he manage to win a Kingwell Hurdle and finish a close second to Al Eile in an Aintree Hurdle.
And he was beaten here last year by Blazing Bailey – not even his devoted lass would call that one a speed horse.
I’d attribute his two defeats in the Liverpool Hurdle to the fact that he needed more than three weeks between his races once he was running over 3M.
But it’s all history and won’t find us any winners today – if everyone is looking for speed horses at Aintree, I’m happy to take inlated prices on the stayers.
I would say it was a dreadful Kingwell (Perouse and Royal Shakespeare)
…and Al Eile another example of an Aintree specialist who wouldn’t have got near Inglis Drever at Cheltenham!
Anyway – I agree this is all irrelevant really in terms of what will happen today.
For what it is worth, I thought Walkon would win this if Starluck didn’t – the "hype" horse in the race for me is Hebridean.
The way I generally look at it with the 2mile hurdlers is that at aintree, much like at kempton, if the ground is good then it is quite hard to run a 2 mile hurdle race as anything much more testing than a 1m2f-1m3f flat race (in equivalent stamina terms).
Throughout the season, 1m2f flat horses can be run out of 2 mile hurdles by better staying horses but IMO it is significantly harder to do at tracks like aintree and kempton when the ground is good, and they seem to retain all their potency in the last few furlongs.
IMO this years triumph wasnt that strong, but it was 2m1f round cheltenhams watered new track on gd-sft and the pace was decent, and so with horses like starluck being outstayed, it isnt necessarily that likely to happen here. Where last years Triumph was run on gd-sft and won by a 1m6fish flat horse, who came to aintree and was beaten by a 1m2f flat horse, we have a few really decnt 1m2f flat horses who have adapted well to hurdling and will IMO be hard to peg back.
Hebridean gave cheltenham a swerve as Nicholls had already seen him outstayed on slower conditions, and it was fairly easy to see early on in his hurdling career that he was one for aintree rather than cheltenham, and with how easily he won at kempton on good ground, I think he is the real one to beat here.
Also worth remembering the sort of form Pierrot Lunaire was in last year at aintree after a similar campaign to hebridean, both he and the Halo were bang in form.
For what it is worth, I thought Walkon would win this if Starluck didn’t – the "hype" horse in the race for me is Hebridean.
I’d agree with this.
When people want a horse to be good from the outset, that horse is always going to be subject to evaluation different from other horses, and they can convince themselves the horse is something he is not.
I am happy to be proved wrong
My thoughts are that the bookies are being tight fisted gits. If i’ve no luck in the first day then that’s that.
Good luck Marble, i’ll watch out for it. I’ve got my interests in the first three runs, so we’ll see how it goes.
If Big Bucks hadn’t switched to hurdles, Punchestowns would have completed a rare treble of Long Walk, Cleeve and Wordl Hurdle wins, the last named by at least 15 lengths. He’d be hailed as a superstar on that evidence, so how good is Big Bucks? For those that don’t mind betting odds on, 4/5 is generous.
How Starluck can be the same or shorter price than Walkon is a mystery to me. The idea that Starluck will do better on this track seems widespread, but where’s the evidence? If Aintree is better for ‘speed’ horses, how did Detroit City and Katchit win here after Cheltenham? Perhaps they were just the best horse in the race, which is how I view Walkon. He should be 6/4, not 11/4.
That’s not to say that Starluck can’t win, just that imo the prices are wrong.
Chapoturgeon was one of three miracle improvers from the Nicholls team at Cheltenham ( with American Trilogy and Denman) and that was some transformation from the dismal animal beaten 17L by Araldur at Warwick. From a handicap off 135 to a top class Graded race is a big jump and I reckon he’s too short against the Arkle horses. Tartak looks rock solid each way back to this trip.
Analysis so far spot on as ever AP. What are the chances of getting the treble up
Deman at 1/1 is too good to be true. Major bet with absolutely no hesitation.
Wouldn’t have a bet in the Foxhunters with stolen money.
I was told Charlie Mann wouldn’t hear of defeat for Hudibras and he’s at it again with Moon over Miami. Horse certainly ran a lot more like his old self at Cheltenham so you can’t blame him for fancying his chances.
On paper it looks tough though so a sporting EW bet at 14/1 for me hopefully might show a profit.Jonjo regarded Isn’t That Lucky as his best handicapped horse at Cheltenham so the form may not be up to much and we might have a false favourite here. I really like Planet of Sound and he hasn’t been over raced this season and din’t look too happy going round Cheltenham. Had a good bet at 0/3 as I think he’ll find Aintree to his liking.
Sunnyhillboy a little on EW just incase he bounces back.
GL all.
I’m sure that plenty of water has been put on the track, but it’s also worth noting that on the BHA website, regarding the hurdle course, it states that the ‘rails will be moved in each day’.
So presumably, they are running further than the published distances today with the rails pushed out on the bends and with the hurdles on the outside of the course.
The first race was about 17 secs over standard – the time of the scond was almost identical with the time of the Triumph.
Good shout AP.
Have they put quite a bit of water down there?
It definitely isnt good ground the way they have been finishing tired and strung out. Good work racing post, again.
Watering again!!
I really hate it. By the way two horses? have died today. Watering = safe ground eh?
FFS COURSES PLEASE STOP WATERING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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