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Aintree Day One – Betting Thoughts

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  • This topic has 38 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 17 years ago by Avatar photoCav.
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  • #219792
    Avatar photoIan
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    • Total Posts 1415

    Can’t really blame ED’s death on the ground – he suffered a heart attack.

    I know but my point is that watering ground does not stop fatalities.

    All is does is produce artificial racing conditions. Its become a bandwagon thing and its about time people jumped back off it. If there is one thing I wish and ask for from the new flat season its that courses aren’t weatered unless they are otherwise like a road.

    #219802
    Avatar photoTuffers
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    • Total Posts 1402

    If Big Bucks hadn’t switched to hurdles, Punchestowns would have completed a rare treble of Long Walk, Cleeve and Wordl Hurdle wins, the last named by at least 15 lengths. He’d be hailed as a superstar on that evidence, so how good is Big Bucks? For those that don’t mind betting odds on, 4/5 is generous.

    How Starluck can be the same or shorter price than Walkon is a mystery to me. The idea that Starluck will do better on this track seems widespread, but where’s the evidence? If Aintree is better for ‘speed’ horses, how did Detroit City and Katchit win here after Cheltenham? Perhaps they were just the best horse in the race, which is how I view Walkon. He should be 6/4, not 11/4.

    That’s not to say that Starluck can’t win, just that imo the prices are wrong.

    Chapoturgeon was one of three miracle improvers from the Nicholls team at Cheltenham ( with American Trilogy and Denman) and that was some transformation from the dismal animal beaten 17L by Araldur at Warwick. From a handicap off 135 to a top class Graded race is a big jump and I reckon he’s too short against the Arkle horses. Tartak looks rock solid each way back to this trip.

    The Golden Anorak strikes again!

    I haven’t seen you post much pre-race analysis, AP, but it’s nice to know you haven’t lost your touch :wink:

    #219819
    Avatar photoDrone
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    • Total Posts 6257

    Impressive analysis APR

    If I’m not mistaken you’ve made it plain in the past that this is one of your favourite meetings

    Normal service resumed then :)

    #219820
    Bulwark
    Member
    • Total Posts 3119

    I dont really have a problem with them watering the track, but IMO if they do, then they should be obligated to give an accurate going discription. To water the track and then put out false going descriptions is as good as race fixing IMO, because it renders the form as not worth a sausage.

    #219822
    Avatar photoCav
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    • Total Posts 4833

    Very good analysis, well done to all concerned. Overall a bit of a sad day. The Pipe, Hendo, Nicholls, King stranglehold of jumps racing continues apace. Bad day for Timmy Murphy – very strange tactics on Our Vic. Roll on tomorrow.

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