Ah yes, "the stable’s in form"

[Steeplechasing]

Ginger, I don’t analyse them in anything like the detail you do. I’ve been playing around for small money the past couple of months using Topspeed figures and the RP’s RTF percentage assessment of a trainer’s form. They have Emma Lavelle at 67% at the moment and I’d certainly be interested in that.

I’ll look at the top 5 or 6 Topspeed figures in a race and bet one or two based on a combination of the RTF figure of their trainer and how big the price is.

So if there’s a Topspeed of 115 for a horse whose trainer has an RTF of 44% and another with a speed figure of 105 with an RTF of 67%, I’d favour the second one. If a few qualify on that sort of basis, I’ll bet the one (or two) at the biggest price.

I’ve only been dabbling for small money but I’m well in front. Saturday, for example, threw up Royal Diamond (29 on Betfair) and Seal of Approval (17). Sew on Target was 3rd at 32 and Chase the Wind 2nd at 18. There were quite a few out of the frame of course, but all in all it’s been quite successful. There’s every chance it’s just a lucky run, but I don’t need to spend much time on it and it’s a bit of entertainment.

I’ll carry on into the jumps and see how it goes, as well as having my main bets on horses I see value in no matter their speed figure or RTF.

Joe

[Gingertipster]

That’s a good way of doing it for those without much time Joe. Can see the logic in that.

RTF’s are good, just be aware when the trainer has had very few runners. If I remember rightly it can give "100%" which sometimes doesn’t mean much with a sample of just 2 runners.

Hope your success continues over jumps Joe. Would not be at all surprised if it does.

Value Is Everything

[MarkTT]

I’ve seen high RTF figures for trainers without a placed horse – depends on what’s expected of them / stable size sometimes.

I think we all like to use our own judgement and also follow horses that we have a connection with.
I use RPR’s, Top speeds, current trainer and jockey form, their overall record at the course.

[Gingertipster]

How would you judge the likelihood of an

Emma Lavelle

horse running well right now Joe? Is it best to judge her on a whole year? Or the past couple of weeks? Or a shorter time maybe?

Had a spell of 6 winners from 9 runners between October 6th and 11th. Winners at 7/4, 11/2, 1/3, 3/1, 7/2 and 11/4. The 3 losers being 6/1 3rd, 9/2 2nd and 33/1 6th of 15… Yet went months without a single winner last season.

I’d have been rating her as "in good form" even before that sequence started. Yet by some methods it would not even be a big enough sample to register and others as being "in good form" only after the sequence is finished.

Emma did me two big favours at Fontwell today with Red Rock and Kind Of Easy. In fact three big favours, Fox Appeal just missing out on the treble! Although backed it, my bigger bet was winner Black Thunder!

Value Is Everything

[MarkTT]

I looked at both of Venetia’s horses, obviously potentially well in, but shopped elsewhere because of the poor stable form. Definitely a streaky stable

However, didn’t she do something similar last year ? Was in terrible form then just had a big Saturday double or treble

[Drone]

Venetia Williams has long been adept at producing an easy handicap winner soon after the revised ORs kick-in, which allows the best part of two weeks in which to run them again (and sometimes again and again) under a penalty or succession of penalties

A well-managed stable ‘who know the price of fish’ *

* c. Alastair Down

[Author]

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