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Alright guys,
Wondering how many of you perceive there to be a huge advantage of attending a meeting in person as a serious punter? It seems to me that you can assess many factors making up a race and find out who are the serious contenders only to be scuppered by the horse not being fully ready to give it’s full running on that given day?
Also, have you personally found yourself attracted to a horse that won through paddock watching and vice versa?? (Relevant examples would be appreciated)Sorry for the barrage of questions but also wondering if any of you guys have read ‘Watching Racehorses’ by Geoffrey Hutson or ‘The body language of horses’ by Tom Ainslie and if you would recommend them for advancing my knowledge on the topic to a high standard??
Thanks in advance
SassoonHello , Tom Ainsleee’s book is excellent, but please remember if you go regularly , the paddock is not enough on its own , going down is where the real well being or not of a nag is to the fore
remember , if your not sure leave it
good luck
Ricky
….plus getting 7/1 about a horse which winds up 9/2 is kinda better than something like 5.8 less commission or 8.8 ditto to two quid ten minutes earlier on the internet.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Eddie The Shoe made a few bob out of it , and our old friend Alan Potts. Mind you, I think most of the money they made was talking and writing about it.
Body language of horses was a great read for any handicapper, and covers a subjective area , that is rarely put into print. From what I understand the biggest advantage o attending any race meeting in the UK is the access to high-speed Wi-Fi .
A good friend of mine,who has spent his entire life around horses is an expert in this field. From what I understand, trying to learn the art of understanding horse’s body language and behaviour is not something you learn in a few weeks or months. You need to be around horses morning night and noon, for years on end. To the extent you are able to identify one horse from the other as well as you are able to identify people’s faces, if not better.
You can learn the basics and fundamentals, however to be a master at this art we probably should have started 40 years ago. This doesn’t change the fact, nor should it deter you from pursuing this fascinating subject. But to turn this interest into a realistic long-term edge over the market, is indeed a long shot.
Alright guys,
Wondering how many of you perceive there to be a huge advantage of attending a meeting in person as a serious punter? It seems to me that you can assess many factors making up a race and find out who are the serious contenders only to be scuppered by the horse not being fully ready to give it’s full running on that given day?
Also, have you personally found yourself attracted to a horse that won through paddock watching and vice versa?? (Relevant examples would be appreciated)Sorry for the barrage of questions but also wondering if any of you guys have read ‘Watching Racehorses’ by Geoffrey Hutson or ‘The body language of horses’ by Tom Ainslie and if you would recommend them for advancing my knowledge on the topic to a high standard??
Thanks in advance
SassoonHi Sassoon,
Depends.Serious punters specialising in getting their "edge" from assessing conformation through paddock watching can still do well. But they’re far and few between, because to have enough knowledge for an edge he/she needs to know the art down to the finest detail.
Of course there are things any serious punter can look out for which helps make a profit from going racing. Sweating, edgy, up behind, frightened, green, unfit, backward types, as well as fit and ready, sharp or types who will improve as they get older.
Used to go to eight racecourses regularly. Now just three, going for atmosphere, meeting racing pals and pleasure of seeing the horses, rather than betting opportunities. Apart from an occasional maiden or novice main bet, most of my on-course bets are just savers.
I believe… These days a "serious
form
punter" can get bigger/better odds with Early Odds that outweigh any "advantages" of going racing. Nowadays, the closer a market is to off time – the less value is in the market. Because the market has found (more or less) the "true" odds. Even those who’ve drifted out to what might look good value on "form" – may only be that price because of other factors (eg fitness). Might still be value there for the Conformation King, but very little for Form Students (imo). Once, there were many serious form punters at the races, betting with on-course bookmakers. They now spend their time sat in front of a computer screen. And those "bookmakers" are not bookmakers at all; they’re "traders". Taking bets and laying them off on betfair at marginally better odds.
How I remember running from bookmaker to bookmaker, in seach of better odds. Sometimes they’d differ quite a bit. Not now, you’re lucky to get half a point different.
If you’re after something that will help in identifying things to look out for Sassoon, there’s a 51 minute American old video called "The Body Language Of The Race Horse" by Chris McCarron and Bonny Leadbetter (I believe co author of the Tom Ainslie book) I can recommend. Chris McCarron did little more than introduce it.
EDIT: Yes, it is available on DVD.
http://www.americanturf.com/bookstore/c … fm?secid=2
Value Is EverythingThe overwhelming majority of my betting is now done on the basis of paddock picking and my strike rate has improved significantly, partly because I’m much more selective in my betting as a result.
However I would also add that I have been put off far more horses that I had fancied on paper after seeing them in the parade ring.
In early season two-year-old contests I think paddock viewing is essential and you can find the occasional long price winner.
I’m not pretending it’s a foolproof system but I find it helps me.
I am currently betting seriously and would not remotely entertain going to the racecourse as part of that.
The problems for me are far more prosaic.
1. Just travelling to and from a racecourse on an almost-daily basis would incur considerable added expense in terms of petrol, entrance fees etc
2. That time used on the road could be more profitably used studying form. If one is going to the races, when does one study form, the night before (after one has returned late from yesterday’s meeting)? Unless you were limiting your entire betting experience to 2-3 days a week at the course, you’d soon be shattered.
3. There is so much traffic on the roads nowadays, travelling is rarely a pleasurable experience. Daytime meetings end at rush hour.
4. Betting with on-course bookmakers to serious money obviously entails carrying large amounts of cash which is something of a security risk.
5. I bet late into the race, so any overtly untoward condition problems with a horse can be seen from live pictures or gleaned from the online Racing Post reporter anyway. The more finely nuanced conditioning I’m not really concerned with.
When I go to the races it’s purely a social/pleasure thing. I hardly study any form as I don’t have the time. I just stick a couple of tenners on each race for interest purposes whilst enjoying the fresh air.
Eddie The Shoe made a few bob out of it , and our old friend Alan Potts. Mind you, I think most of the money they made was talking and writing about it.
A great point. It seems to me that all these self-promoting on course gamblers of recent times have had other work. One would have to ask why that is? I understand that one of these high-profile ‘pros’ was nothing of the sort having an entirely independent source of income.
Still, in the world of the internet, we can all be what we want to be.
Mike
There’s one simple problem with Paddock viewing and thats doing it blind.Look at all the horses in the race walking around the Pre-parade ring mark down the ones that catch your eye for whatever reason then when you decide on who looks best take a look at your racecard and 9 times out of 10 you will instantly dismiss it,mostly because it could be 50/1 or just the fact its form suddenly puts you off,it may have had half a dozen races and done nothing.No I’m afraid paddock picks are not the way forward.You should have made your selection way before the race and looking at them in the paddock should only bolster your confidence if your selection looks well,I’ve seen some hairy donkeys win so Paddock viewing means little in the scheme of things.The most profitable way of winning nowadays is having a lightening fast Computer and betting in running and that includes Laying,so long as you lnow your horses you know who travels well and finds nothing,a Layers dream and those who need rousting along and find for it.All the above applies to the Jumps so much more than the flat which is a bloody nightmare.Give me betting in running on a 3m ch anyday to a 6f sprint.No comparison!
The abolition of off-course betting ‘tax’ and the advent of the exchanges largely killed-off the advantages of going racing for betting purposes though as has been mentioned there may still be an edge for those versed in the art of paddock/canter watching
For what it’s worth I found it significantly easier to identify paddock/canter negatives than positives, though I never pretended to be much good at it
1. Just travelling to and from a racecourse on an almost-daily basis would incur considerable added expense in terms of petrol, entrance fees etc
Very true, I’ve been doing 30-40k miles a year for the past few years, which equates to around £4.5k a year for fuel. Luckily with a press badge I don’t have to pay admission costs, which does save me around £3k a year.
Next year when I revert to being an "ordinary" racegoers I will take out two annual memberships, which will also include around 100 reciprocals between them.
2. That time used on the road could be more profitably used studying form. If one is going to the races, when does one study form, the night before (after one has returned late from yesterday’s meeting)? Unless you were limiting your entire betting experience to 2-3 days a week at the course, you’d soon be shattered.
Clearly if go on the train or fly I can use the travel time to prepare but otherwise I will do prep after racing, to avoid the departing crowds or back home. Obviously if I’m doing an overnighter it kills time in the hotel.
I’m not really obsessed with betting and although I go racing three or four days a week on average I don’t bet that often . I may have half a dozen, fun, small stakes bets a week – most of those after seeing something I like in the parade ring. I will only have around a couple of dozen serious bets a year, most of those around Cheltenham and Royal Ascot. Very occasionally there will be a horse that really takes my fancy in the parade ring and I will have a decent bet on it.
3. There is so much traffic on the roads nowadays, travelling is rarely a pleasurable experience. Daytime meetings end at rush hour.
You soon learn all the "rat runs" trust me – plus a sat-nav with "Live" services really helps
4. Betting with on-course bookmakers to serious money obviously entails carrying large amounts of cash which is something of a security risk.
Use a commissioning agent – OK it costs money but it’s in their interest to get you the best prices. Just give them a ring from the track – if they’re any good they will get you on.
There’s one simple problem with Paddock viewing and thats doing it blind.Look at all the horses in the race walking around the Pre-parade ring mark down the ones that catch your eye for whatever reason then when you decide on who looks best take a look at your racecard and 9 times out of 10 you will instantly dismiss it,mostly because it could be 50/1 or just the fact its form suddenly puts you off,it may have had half a dozen races and done nothing.
With most races I make a point of not looking at the betting until after I have looked at all the runners, partly so I’m not unconsciously influenced. Obviously with the bigger races that is more difficult as I would have studied the race in detail in advance.
I would say on blind looking seven out of ten of my paddock picks will tend to be in the top two or three in the betting anyway. Someone once complained too many of my paddock picks are favourites – which was a dumb comment really as the better horses will be better looking and will be favourite. I’m not going to not paddock pick a horse just because it is the favourite.
I do occasionally pick a 33/1 or 50/1 shot "blind" and although they may not always win – I think my last 50/1 paddock pick winner was in 2012 – I have a fair strike rate with them being placed.
More importantly I have spotted many so called hot shots which, after paddock inspection, I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole.
Many years ago I was at Towcester racecourse in mid-winter watching them circle the parade ring for the closing National Hunt Flat Race.
One particular runner was mooching disinterestedly around, being led by a typically-gnarled stablehand. As he passed me, the horse dipped his head slightly and winked. I thought "Well, that’s a bit unusual!". Anyway, I stayed in my position, and as he came round the second time he did exactly the same thing. I couldn’t believe it.
On his third circuit, I had my eyes firmly fixed on him – he was called Herbal Wise – and sure enough, he looked me in the eye, dipped his head and winked at me. He was clearly telling me something.
Now the whole point of this thread is to discuss if there is any advantage to being at the course as a punter. Well, quite obviously in this case there was! I’m no fool, so I wandered down to the betting ring and saw a best-priced 33/1 about Herbal Wise. I had ten large to £300 with the fractions and waited for the formality of the race.
Ridden and trained by Ann Stokell, Herbal Wise was tailed off after half-a-mile and sauntered around in his own time before virtually pulling up on the stiff uphill finish.
Bemused, I made my way down from the stands to try to find some reason for this dismal display. A bit of bleeding perhaps? A slight limp?
It was nearly dark by the time he stumbled, breathing heavily into the unsaddling area. Anyway, as he passed me he just raised his eyebrows, morosely shrugged his shoulders and silently mouthed "Sorry…"
Just shows you, eh?
Mike
It was nearly dark by the time he stumbled, breathing heavily into the unsaddling area. Anyway, as he passed me he just raised his eyebrows, morosely shrugged his shoulders and silently mouthed "Sorry…"
Just shows you, eh?
Ah the equine put away. Some will recall the sprinter Benzoe who ran many a race on the northern tracks. Quite early in his career he was favourite for a handicap at Thirsk and kindly took the time to suggest all was not well by fiercely exhaling a gobbet or three of phlegm and/or snot my way paddock-side. ‘Got the cough have you?’ I mumbled sagely, no bet. WonEddie The Shoe made a few bob out of it , and our old friend Alan Potts. Mind you, I think most of the money they made was talking and writing about it.
Just to put the record straight. Alan told me it wasn’t worth him writing those books, because the publishers went bust.
Value Is EverythingWhen I go to the races it’s purely a social/pleasure thing. I hardly study any form as I don’t have the time. I just stick a couple of tenners on each race for interest purposes whilst enjoying the fresh air.
Mike
What?!
£120 to £160 for "interest purposes"!Even professional gamblers only make on average around 10% to 15% on stakes. Why would a serious punter have any fun/interest bets Mike? It cuts down on profit margins.
Value Is Everything
Ah the equine put away. Some will recall the sprinter Benzoe who ran many a race on the northern tracks. Quite early in his career he was favourite for a handicap at Thirsk and kindly took the time to suggest all was not well by fiercely exhaling a gobbet or three of phlegm and/or snot my way paddock-side. ‘Got the cough have you?’ I mumbled sagely, no bet. Won
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