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Watch the 08 CC and tell me anything could give MM 10lb and a beating that day.
You may well be right PC, I remember it well having backed MM ante-post. However, this is about a Fantasy Tingle Creek at Sandown and his form wasn’t as good there.
That does not matter, he was 100% over course and distance and won the Tingle Creek easily. No horse could have done more than that and no reason to believe he wouldn’t produce his best form there if required, he would be fav.
Or do you only back horses in races where a horse has previously shown the best form in that particular race?
The old Master Minded conundrum…Fate conspired to make him look a superstar – we all wanted one, so were happy enough to ignore the old wisdom – ‘If it looks to good to be true, it probably is’
He lined up for that 2008 Champion Chase with just three previous UK runs – one unseat and two fencing victories. A month earlier, in receipt of 6lbs from VPU, he’d trounced him in the Game Spirit (interesting that after that race, Ruby had still not decided whether to partner MM or Twist Magic in the QM)
I was as carried away as every one else as he galloped up the hill that day, but age and cynicism inclined me afterward toward a colder appraisal. I’d never believed VPU was truly top class (subsequent evidence proved him more effective at a longer trip imo. And if he did have back problems, they first showed up when his jumping – always an asset for him as a young horse – began crumbling later in his career).
As TYF, infers, VPU’s previous QM victory was one of the worst pieces of festival Grade 1 form you’ll ever see. He had to be driven out to beat Dempsey.
MM started odds-on in all 11 of his chases following that QM victory. The best horse he met in that period was Well Chief. The first time MM beat WC at levels when the Pipe horse returned from an absence of 700 days. Well Chief, in receipt of 10lbs, got his revenge 7 months later, a few weeks short of turning 11 years-old.
In between those two runs, MM met a new challenger, and, outside of Well Chief, the best he’d faced so far – Big Zeb, who’d almost certainly have beaten him that day but for demolishing the last. A few months later, Big Zeb took his revenge in the QM. Sizing Europe was the other really good horse MM ran against over 2 miles, when the Nicholls horse ran below par in the 2011 QM.
Throughout that long odds-on period, MM mostly met the usual suspects – Petit Robin, Mahogany Blaze, Ashley Brook, Newmill, Twist Magic, I’msingingtheblues, and Somersby. These were his bread and butter. He was not up to beating the top two-milers at their best.
Master Minded’s myth, and for a long time his rating, was built on that sole stunning victory in the 2008 QM. He was, imo, rated about 10lbs better than he was, and it took a long time and lots of excuses before many began to accept that what had happened that mad March day was a set of extraordinary circumstances – a very good two-miler, fresh, improving, superbly fit, and, possibly crucially, on his perfect ground (MM won all 10 of his completed races on official good-to-soft(Timeform differ)) met a horse in VPU who was the title-holder, still young, and a dual festival winner, but who was never a true two-miler and who also probably had something of an off day.
Master Minded was a fine horse. He was a failure, I suppose, only in that he did not fulfil what humans expected of him from that shining day in 2008. He was an equine JFK who had, unlike Kennedy, the reputational misfortune of surviving beyond his coronation.
Have you taken a look at the time Joe?
If Master Minded was rated “10 lbs” too high, then how do you explain the clock? Only 3.8 seconds slow on officially Good-Soft good in places (Timeform made it Good-Soft). Comparison to the other two days is difficult if not impossible. Although the official goings on all three days were “Good Soft” (good in places only on Champion Chase day) Timeform had it as Soft on the first day Tuesday (Wednesday was abandoned) Good-Soft on the other two days. But no race on the Tuesday or Friday beat 10 seconds slow and that includes Denman’s Gold Cup. That final day being on the New Course, others on Old. However, we are in a unique position of being able to compare times of 10 races on the same day, although steady rain fell after the 6th. Some may well have been slowly run, but not all.NH Chase slow by 27.6 secs (average furlong 0.8625 secs slower than standard)
Sun Alliance slow by 20.5 Albertas Run (average 0.837 secs)
Jewson by 12.2 (0.595)Champion Chase slow by 3.8 Master Minded (average furlong 0.2375 secs slower than standard.
Ryanair 12.24 Our Vic (0.597)
World Hurdle 8.9 Inglis Drever (0.371)
Racing Post Plate 11.4 (0.556)
Pertemps Final 18.13 (0.755)
Fulke Walwyn 32.4 (1.271)
Champion Bumper 18.3 (1.109)When comparing it to other times on the same day, is it not a physical impossibility for a horse to be rated only 169 and put up a time that good?
Yes, I agree it wasn’t as good as the form looked at first glance; because VPU and Fair Along did not perform to their very best. But the point is they don’t need to have done to rate Master Minded highly. Nor do you have to rate VPU as a good winner of the race to rate Master Minded highly,
because there was so much daylight between the two.
Value Is EverythingThe old Master Minded conundrum…Fate conspired to make him look a superstar – we all wanted one, so were happy enough to ignore the old wisdom – ‘If it looks to good to be true, it probably is’
He lined up for that 2008 Champion Chase with just three previous UK runs – one unseat and two fencing victories. A month earlier, in receipt of 6lbs from VPU, he’d trounced him in the Game Spirit (interesting that after that race, Ruby had still not decided whether to partner MM or Twist Magic in the QM)
I was as carried away as every one else as he galloped up the hill that day, but age and cynicism inclined me afterward toward a colder appraisal. I’d never believed VPU was truly top class (subsequent evidence proved him more effective at a longer trip imo. And if he did have back problems, they first showed up when his jumping – always an asset for him as a young horse – began crumbling later in his career).
As TYF, infers, VPU’s previous QM victory was one of the worst pieces of festival Grade 1 form you’ll ever see. He had to be driven out to beat Dempsey.
MM started odds-on in all 11 of his chases following that QM victory. The best horse he met in that period was Well Chief. The first time MM beat WC at levels when the Pipe horse returned from an absence of 700 days. Well Chief, in receipt of 10lbs, got his revenge 7 months later, a few weeks short of turning 11 years-old.
In between those two runs, MM met a new challenger, and, outside of Well Chief, the best he’d faced so far – Big Zeb, who’d almost certainly have beaten him that day but for demolishing the last. A few months later, Big Zeb took his revenge in the QM. Sizing Europe was the other really good horse MM ran against over 2 miles, when the Nicholls horse ran below par in the 2011 QM.
Throughout that long odds-on period, MM mostly met the usual suspects – Petit Robin, Mahogany Blaze, Ashley Brook, Newmill, Twist Magic, I’msingingtheblues, and Somersby. These were his bread and butter. He was not up to beating the top two-milers at their best.
Master Minded’s myth, and for a long time his rating, was built on that sole stunning victory in the 2008 QM. He was, imo, rated about 10lbs better than he was, and it took a long time and lots of excuses before many began to accept that what had happened that mad March day was a set of extraordinary circumstances – a very good two-miler, fresh, improving, superbly fit, and, possibly crucially, on his perfect ground (MM won all 10 of his completed races on official good-to-soft(Timeform differ)) met a horse in VPU who was the title-holder, still young, and a dual festival winner, but who was never a true two-miler and who also probably had something of an off day.
Master Minded was a fine horse. He was a failure, I suppose, only in that he did not fulfil what humans expected of him from that shining day in 2008. He was an equine JFK who had, unlike Kennedy, the reputational misfortune of surviving beyond his coronation.
I thought we were judging these horses “at their best” Joe. Answer me this: In any of those races you quote, did MM run to his “best”?
When Big Zeb beat Master Minded (by almost 10 lengths) at Cheltenham, Forpaddytheplasterer and Kalahari King also finished in front of him, MM only had Oh Crick 2 ¾ lengths behind. Do you really think Master Minded ran to form that day? As a guide to Master Minded’s “best form” it is meaningless.
When Big Zeb almost beat Master Minded at Punchestown – the complete second rater Conna Castle was only 12 lengths further back under level weights. Are you really saying Conna Castle would’ve finished 4 lengths in front of VPU in that 2008 Champion Chase? As a guide to Master Minded’s “best form” the Punchestown race is meaningless.
When Well Chief beat Master Minded by 4 lengths – in between them was Mahogany Blaze, like the Pipe horse – in receipt of 10 lbs. If you’re judging MM by Well Chief then you must also judge him by Mahogany Blaze. A horse he’s beaten several times with considerable ease. As a guide to Master Minded’s “best form” (and indeed Well Chief’s) it is meaningless….
…As is the second Champion Chase MM won.
A past his best Well Chief was a 7 lengths second, but he only beat the third Petit Robin by another 2. So 9 lengths between MM and PR at level weights. The two were 16 lengths apart on their previous start also at levels. And although later only beating that rival by 8 lengths in the Tingle Creek of 2010, did so with any amount in hand (value for considerably more than
. Therefore it can clearly be seen Master Minded at his best was considerably better than the form of his second Champion Chase form.You go through a long list of not quite Top Class horses he beat, as if to show us MM could not have been that good; yet you neglect to tell us just how far he beat those horses. Wouldn’t have thought this needed to be said, but “form” is not only about who a horse beats, but also by how far, what the weights are,how easily it won and (if possible) times.
Master Minded reached his peak as a young horse and did not produce it in later years. If it were the other way around I wonder if his reputation would’ve been different.
Value Is EverythingWatch the 08 CC and tell me anything could give MM 10lb and a beating that day.
You may well be right PC, I remember it well having backed MM ante-post. However, this is about a Fantasy Tingle Creek at Sandown and his form wasn’t as good there.
That does not matter, he was 100% over course and distance and won the Tingle Creek easily. No horse could have done more than that and no reason to believe he wouldn’t produce his best form there if required, he would be fav.
Or do you only back horses in races where a horse has previously shown the best form in that particular race?
All I am saying is his stand out performance was on a left-handed track. I’d say he is probably equally effective left and right, but we dont know for certain. It’s only a very small negative Eddie, but this is a handicap between some wonderful horses, a race where they’re all rated exactly the same by Timeform. Normally it would not be a deal breaker, but in such a competitive race I’d need to take everything in to account that could possibly (only possibly) make a difference. MM is certainly worth consideration, I’d have him as third favourite behind Sprinter Sacre and Moscow Flyer myself. But each to their own.
Value Is EverythingGinger, perhaps the very hot pace was another element that day which worked in favour of MM and against his rivals?
He never again ran within a stone of his Topspeed figure that day. In the following season’s VC chase, he ran within 5lbs of the RPR he achieved that day (a speculative rating, imo; the RP seemed to believe he could have won the VC by much farther) That was the closest he got RPR-wise to his golden day.
That leaves a straight choice: you either believe he was rated too highly after the 2008 QM, or you accept that he never again ran to that rating. Given that he was just 5 when achieving that 186, and with, statistically at least. scope for improvement, and that he had 16 post-186 opportunities to prove the rating correct, logic suggests he was not a 186 horse.
But it does leave that tantalizing question – did he run beyond his ‘normal’ capabilities on that single day when everything came right? Did we get a 186 performance from a 176 horse? Can such a thing happen? And if it did, then it leads to a different debate – what set of circumstances are required for a horse to produce its best? And what are the chances of those circumstances coming together even once in a horse’s career?
I could go on…the good news is, I won’t!
Ginger, perhaps the very hot pace was another element that day which worked in favour of MM and against his rivals?
He never again ran within a stone of his Topspeed figure that day. In the following season’s VC chase, he ran within 5lbs of the RPR he achieved that day (a speculative rating, imo; the RP seemed to believe he could have won the VC by much farther) That was the closest he got RPR-wise to his golden day.
That leaves a straight choice: you either believe he was rated too highly after the 2008 QM, or you accept that he never again ran to that rating. Given that he was just 5 when achieving that 186, and with, statistically at least. scope for improvement, and that he had 16 post-186 opportunities to prove the rating correct, logic suggests he was not a 186 horse.
But it does leave that tantalizing question – did he run beyond his ‘normal’ capabilities on that single day when everything came right? Did we get a 186 performance from a 176 horse? Can such a thing happen? And if it did, then it leads to a different debate – what set of circumstances are required for a horse to produce its best? And what are the chances of those circumstances coming together even once in a horse’s career?
I could go on…the good news is, I won’t!
I have no problem with anyone believing Master Minded was over-rated by Timeform Joe, but not by 10 lbs. However, you now seem to be moving the goal posts completely.
In a thread where we are supposedly trying to use our judgement to find the winner of a mythical race that is handicapped using
Timeform Ratings, NOT BHA
… You’ve apparently gone from saying the Timeform rating of Master Minded in the OP is 10 lbs too high – to using BHA ratings which pretty much everybody believes 186 is too high, to rate MM higher than KS or Denman has been proved foolish. Indeed, Timeform themselves criticised the BHA rating as being far too high in their Chasers And Hurdlers 2007-2008.
However, if Diamond Geezer is correct in copying down the ratings – it is also a bit confusing. Because to my reckoning Timeform never gave Master Minded a rating of 182. All other ratings given are those in the Chasers And Hurldlers of each relevent year. As far as I can see Master Minded’s best rating in Chasers And Hurdlers is only 179. So you’d be right Joe, the 182 does over-estimate his ability (by three pounds).
The question should be: Did we get a Timeform 179 performance; not did we get a BHA 186 performance?
Master Minded’s next race after that run away success came at Aintree, almost falling in the Melling Chase and recieving the Timeform Perspective comment
"capitulated quickly after a mistake similar in style to that made by Kauto Star at the second last the previous day, done with in strides and eased a bit near the finish; his trainer was of the opinion he didn’t stay but it’s more likely that a physical problem was the cause"
. It is my belief that either a small physical problem stopped him from producing as good a performance again, or such a shuddering error affected him, never seemed to jump as economically afterwards, although jumped well compared to most.
Value Is EverythingJust confirming Timeform have MM at 182 which is what they call his "PEAK" rating.
All I can think is they’ve used a provisional rating given immediately after the race. After careful reflection at the end of the season in Chasers And Hurdlers 07/08 they rated the performance as 179. Even saying in the write up
"Timeform currently rate the trio Kauto Star 182, Denman 180p and Master Minded 179"
. Unless they’ve now revised the rating upwards, but if so it does not show up in any list of Timeform Greats.
Value Is EverythingGinger, I moved no goalposts, I just didn’t put any up in the first place. It was the Master Minded ‘conundrum’ that instigated my post, not the thread title – I should have made that clearer.
That race has fascinated me for a long time. I used to debate it on Betfair until the knuckledraggers took over all the typewriters.
That QM crystallizes perfectly imo, the melting pot of ingredients that must be considered before making a judgement on a horse, whether in hindsight or in preparation for a bet.
Opponents matter, of course. Weight matters. Going matters. Fitness, jumping, tactics, pace, jockeys, time of year, right or left-handed, quirks, form of the yard etc etc. It’s pulling everything together, and trying to work out the ideal set of conditions for one animal on one day.
Why do horses win at 20s and 33s and 50s? I’m much more inclined to believe that it’s because many of their ideal conditions have been met – unbeknown to most humans. It’s not down to bent trainers or jockeys. And it’s not down to horses being ungenuine or quirky or inconsistent. Most horses win because, when the melting pot is emptied that day, the winners are those for whom the mix was right. The case of Master Minded and the 2008 QM, is probably the model example of a perfect recipe.
Hell, I’m wandering off again…but this is what keeps me returning to racing.
Now I’ll shut up. Again.Tho admittedly outside the remit of this thread, we should also rate Pendil, who beat Tingle Creek over 2 miles at Sandown, and Dawn Run, a month after winning the Gold Cupwho beat a good reigning 2-mile champion.
I wish there was more footage of Pendil available; he was possibly the best jumper I have ever seenMaybe you could do a book Ginge
I aim to please.
Master Minded’s 182 has made a difference to how I rate his chances, on 179 (10-13) would’ve been clear 3rd fav..
Sprinter Sacre 7/2 (22%) 3/1
Moscow Flyer 9/2 (18%) 4/1
Azertyuiop 13/2 (13%) 6/1
Flagship Uberalles 15/2 (12%) 13/2
Master Minded 9/1 (10%) 15/2
Well Chief 9/1 (10%) 8/1
Sizing Europe 9/1 (10%) 8/1
Twist Magic 20/1 (5%) 15/1First price is the market to 100%.
Figure in brackets is the percentage of each horse.
Third figure is after a mark up is added for a 113% win only book.Value Is EverythingObviously, if every horse ran to their best mark on the day it should be a multiple dead heat.
It is a hypothetical race but if they were actually lining up tomorrow and were all coming in two weeks after their best performance, we would have to start looking at all the variables.
Going and course preferences are the starting point and then we have to look at reliability and consistency. How many times has each horse actually run to, or anywhere near to their best ever rating? Whose jumping is the soundest?
Enough in depth analysis has gone on but perhaps it would be worth compiling the list of Racing Post and Official Ratings for each horse just to get some more opinions on board.
Master Minded just isn’t the horse I would want to be with. His rating took a serious hike upwards (16lbs) for beating Voy Por Ustedes 19 lengths in the race mentioned earlier, but when they clashed again at Aintree, albeit over an extra half mile, Master Minded managed to run 37 lengths worse in losing to his old foe by 18 lengths when 2/5 Fav. He was turned over too many times for me when he was short odds favourite and you shouldn’t have to make excuses for great horses.
Sprinter Sacre is highly respected and he’s been visually stunning but he hasn’t put together the longer career of others and looking at his starting prices shows the serious lack of competition he has faced. 2/5, 8/11, 1/7, 4/11, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/9, 2/9 were his last nine starting prices, so how would he cope conceding weight to good horses in a handicap?
For me the horse to side with is Moscow Flyer. His jumping could be a slight worry but he served it up to the best over a long career and his consistency was remarkable. From November 2001 to April 2005 he ran 23 times, winning 19 being a faller once and unseating in the other three races. He won on Good to firm, good, good to soft, soft and heavy ground and he won the race in question twice, hampered and unseated in another Tingle Creek when close up.
Moscow Flyer for me and lay Master Minded till Christmas.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sprinter Sacre is awe-inspiring but at those weights I’d probably side with Moscow Flyer in this race.
That 2004/2005 season was so fantastic for the 2m division with Moscow Flyer vs Azertyuiop vs Well Chief. Obviously the following season age had caught up with Moscow Flyer but we could still have had more exciting battles between Azertyuiop & Well Chief. It’s such a shame that Azertyuiop retired through injury and Well Chief barely made it to the racetrack for the following 4 seasons.
I remember at the time there were people saying Well Chief was over-rated for fininshing so close to MF & Azerty in the Tingle Creek. Then to my delight a couple of months later he proved them wrong by winning the Victor Chandler off Top weight. His rating that day was 176, 2lbs higher than the rating Denman had when he won his second Hennessy. To win off that mark to greatness and WC was just 6 years old.
He never won a Champion Chase but his performance when he finished second to MF in the 2005 renewal would have won him most of the Champion Chase’s run over the last 30 years or so.
Just thought he deserved a bit more of a mention than he was getting in this thread.
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