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This is always an interesting puzzle. Classy horses often run in/win this. Native river was placed last year, and the winner Minella Rocco looks good too.
My fancy this year is Martello Tower.
This horse won an attritional Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham 2 years ago from Milsean and No More Heroes. The Albert Bartlett can often ruin a horse (see No More Heroes, possibly Milsean, Fagan, Barters Hill etc.). But Martello Tower, despite not having a great campaign last year, looks as good as ever this year. He seems just as good over fences, and his form last time in a top 3 mile race after initially being outpaced, tells me he’s tailor made for this.
He’s always seemed like one who’d stay extreme trips, and 16/1 with William hill represents fantastic value for a course winner with the potential to improve for the step up in trip. I was all over him at the same price for the AB 2 years ago and shouted it from the roof tops in this forum. Think history will repeat itself.
The other one I like for this is Champers on Ice. He looks a dour stayer and has some good form.
His second at Warwick the other day after being one of the first off the bridle and being almost laugh at one stage before staying on, tells me he will relish the 4 miles.
What are your fancies?One of my favourite races Johnny, and on a 4 timer in it, so hoping to keep that run going this year (to balance this out, there’s races where my losing streak would be a lot longer than a 4 timer lol). Not one to go mad on Ante-Post, with so many options for them, and with Jockey Bookings being key.
Shortlist of 4 for me at the moment.
Nambour – Always had this race in mind for him, and I think the trip will be the making of him. Despite being down the field behind A Toi Phil last time, I seen enough to be happy with. 25’s
Fagan – Agonisingly close in The Albert Bartlett last year, and I’ve kept him in mind ever since. I threw a few quid at him for The RSA at big prices, but if the market is anything to go by, then this will be the target. If his seasonal debut is a true reflection of where he is, then I can forget both races, but wouldn’t be a big surprise if he bounces back. 25’s
Tiger Roll – My main fancy, and a horse I consider to be the forgotten horse of the season. Blew away a competitive field in The Munster National, before having what appeared to be a “sighter” round here a couple of months back. Former Festival winner, who’ll be going the “traditional” route of Triumph Hurdle to National Hunt Chase, and I think he could be a big player. The one drawback is the sheer number of targets he could have, just not at The Festival, but I think he could be a big player here. 25’s
Marinero – Another Giggs horse, and one who wasn’t entirely disgraced behind Thistlecrack here in November. He showed enough ability that day, and I think we’ll see him in this, if all is well with him (he’s not quoted) NQ
Others like Fletchers Flyer, Bleu Et Rouge, Singlefarmpayment, and Beware The Bear also make appeal, but I’ll stick by the shortlist for the timebeing. Haven’t parted with any cash yet on any of them though.
Johnny, would you be offended if I amended the title of your thread to National Hunt Chase??? My OCD is going haywire with “4 Mile Novice Chase” lol
I like your Tiger Roll suggestion, course form is always a bonus and he looks like one who could improve tenfold for the step up in distance. He hadn’t even crossed my mind for this tbh for some reason.
And yes of course, change the name to National Hunt chase. In my excitement for adding one of my favourite races at the festival and shouting Martello Towers name from the roof tops i neglected to call it the official name, my apologies Cognac
Good man Johnny, thanks for changing it, and many thanks for taking in the good humour I intended………..was scared in case I came across as a right pedantic git haha.
I know that feeling only too well, you have one you want to shout out loud about, and Martello Tower is a decent shout. Not much more I can add about him, as you’ve covered it all yourself, and can’t argue with the 16’s either. Good luck.
Yeah, I’m getting increasingly optimistic about Tiger Roll for this, and though he looks perfect for the 3 Miler earlier in the day, I hope this is where he’ll head. That run in The Munster National is still fresh in my mind, and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t add to it before the seasons out.
VTC – Bryan Cooper tipped up Tiger Roll for the National Hunt Chase on the FFP yesterday. Thought you may be interested having backed him – I certainly was given I followed suit! https://soundcloud.com/emmet-kennedy – latest podcast, from 57.55. ‘I tell you who could run in it, and you might laugh at me, is Tiger Roll’
A question for you guys…
When it comes to NH horses stepping up in trip, I absolutely hate it. It’s a step into the unknown and my NH judgement is not so great that I can perfectly pinpoint which horses will enjoy the step-up in trip. You’re also gambling on them staying 4 miles.
So how do you approach this race? I’ve probably staked a total of £20 on this race over the last 10 years. It’s just not a race I get at all. Do you just look for the horse who’s impressed the most, no matter what distance he/she ran over?
Martello Tower will definitely love the trip, that’s a fact. He’s a proper tugboat of a horse.
Beware The Bear’s been scintillating.
Nambour…yes, this horse is rated very highly. Will he stay 4 miles?
Bleu Et Rouge is surely going to the JLT?
Zark, there are so few races over 4 Miles these days, that you don’t know till you try, and I’m always willing to give them the benefit of the doubt beforehand. I believe that most horses who have form over 3 miles, shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by 4. So it’s probably a “yes” from me for your question “Do you just look for the horse who’s impressed the most, no matter what distance he/she ran over“?
All of those on the shortlist have impressed me for various reasons.
There are obvious exceptions of course. It works the other way for me as well. I was very confident that Seeyouatmidnight was a two and half miler last year, but he fair shut me up at Ayr lol
When tackling this race, I want an established yard, big owner, and I have a shortlist of who I consider the 4 best amateur jockeys, and I love to see them jocked up on mine (this is obviously not much use in January). For the record, those are Jamie Codd, Katie Walsh, Sam Waley-Cohen, and Derek O’Connor. Midnight Prayer didn’t really fit those stats, other than the trainer, but he was a horse I knew well, with him being a “system” horse of mine, and thought he’d be ideal for it.
I hope that’s some sort of use
Many thanks for this Charlie, I appreciate the heads up.
I hadn’t actually backed him yet, but off the back of that, I have now lol
Very pleased to see Tiger Roll get an entry, and just hope he makes it there now.
Fagan is missing from my extended shortlist, which isn’t a suprise given his seasonal debut, while the absence of Bleu Et Rouge, means there’s one less to worry about.
Plenty more to worry about though, and the entry given to Ibis Du Rheu catches the eye, as does General Principle & Jetstream Jack.
This has the look of a race I’d love to do a book on, but I suspect that the prices won’t allow that, nor will the liquidity, and a huge number of these will have multiple targets anyway,so I’ll stick with Tiger Roll for the timebeing, and have another look nearer the time.
Zark, there are so few races over 4 Miles these days, that you don’t know till you try, and I’m always willing to give them the benefit of the doubt beforehand. I believe that most horses who have form over 3 miles, shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by 4. So it’s probably a “yes” from me for your question “Do you just look for the horse who’s impressed the most, no matter what distance he/she ran over“?
All of those on the shortlist have impressed me for various reasons.
There are obvious exceptions of course. It works the other way for me as well. I was very confident that Seeyouatmidnight was a two and half miler last year, but he fair shut me up at Ayr lol
When tackling this race, I want an established yard, big owner, and I have a shortlist of who I consider the 4 best amateur jockeys, and I love to see them jocked up on mine (this is obviously not much use in January). For the record, those are Jamie Codd, Katie Walsh, Sam Waley-Cohen, and Derek O’Connor. Midnight Prayer didn’t really fit those stats, other than the trainer, but he was a horse I knew well, with him being a “system” horse of mine, and thought he’d be ideal for it.
I hope that’s some sort of use
Similar approach, VTC, and it’s a similar approach to the National. Breeding of the horse, ability of the trainer in this sphere, jockey. It’s led me to winners of this like Midnight Prayer and Cause Of Causes ( can’t be many stayers whose dam also foaled a Derby winner ).
Marinero is my current pick for this
Zark, there are so few races over 4 Miles these days, that you don’t know till you try, and I’m always willing to give them the benefit of the doubt beforehand. I believe that most horses who have form over 3 miles, shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by 4. So it’s probably a “yes” from me for your question “Do you just look for the horse who’s impressed the most, no matter what distance he/she ran over“?
This is especially useful, thanks
Jamie code has agreed to ride
a genie inabottleOn at 20s
Along side martello tower 16s
And champers on ice 25sDiscussing some of his other Festival plans, the trainer continued: “A Genie In Abottle runs in the four-mile race (National Hunt Chase) and Jamie Codd has agreed to ride him.
“He was beaten by Tony Martin’s horse (Anibale Fly) in Naas the last day, but he’s a Grade One performer and there was no disgrace in that.
“He stays very well and his jumping has been very good up to this point.
Thanks for that update Rocky, not really what I wanted to hear, but you can’t have him on your side all the time.
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