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Oooh wow, Jan Vermeer down to 28s, obviously people stuck at the office all day have come home and seen Midas Touch win today.
Had another £2 on Nibani at 150s, since it was on offer…
Also delved into the Champion Hurdle market tonight!!! Had roughly £20 on Muirhead to win the CH last season at around 150s and thought he was going to win 2 out. Fair enough, he’ll need to improve a lot to catch up with Celestial Halo and Binocular, but 330s!?! Had the princely sum of £2 on to go with my £2 on Bergo for the Arkle at 190s. Should appear fairly soonish in the Morgiana.
You can see the races on youtube horses like
ST Nicholas Abbey
Workforce
Azaan.The Johnson horse
Stienbeck
Kingsfort
Chabal
Special DutyI know how to watch races, I just choose not to, for some reason.
EDIT – Nibani confirmed for the 1m maiden at Newmarket on Friday. Pekan Three also down to run. Had another £4 on Nibani at an average price of 153s taking my total stake on him to £8
Burnett won quite nicely although it looked as if one or two behind were being saved for another day. Unless Robinson has ridden a very poor race from the front it looks as if Business As Usual is one to file under ‘looks the part, lacks the engine’. He folded very tamely.
Arcano’s out of the Dewhurst. He really does need a miracle now to win the 2000 Guineas. The only trainer in the world that can get a horse with his kind of profile to win a Guineas is Aidan.
Also annoying because I did a £5 double with Never On Sunday not 3 hours ago!
If anybody’s interested, Xtension’s the one on the trends, but in all these years at stud Xaar’s never sired a Group 1 winner and hasn’t even got into the RPR120s with any of his progeny.
Really should be a comfortable success for Chabal. Not convinced at all by Silver Grecian’s form. I’m praying Steinbeck finishes around 4th or 5th so I can get a decent price on him for the Guineas, but the only potential spanner in the works I can see for Chabal is High Twelve.
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I put Xtension up as an outsider for the Dewhurst on TAPK’s notebook thread, but with Arcano out Dick Turpin is very much top of my list.
16/1 is ludicrous.
I think it’s about right, Equitrack. Ok he was unlucky in the Jean Luc, but there’s a colossal different between being unlucky and being beaten 1/2 or 1 length, but he was beaten by almost 4L. The form’s not exactly wonderful either. Buzzword shows the form to be pretty much Group 3 IMO. I’d have doubts about him staying as well.
I’ll do a quick round-up of why the market principles can’t win the 2000 Guineas on the trends/breeding;
Arcano – ran in Group company before September, ran over 6f in Group company, won’t have run after September 4th and will probably need a prep race. The latter isn’t a huge negative, but a strong negative nonetheless, and the former 3 are all vital.
Chabal – nothing on the trends rules him out, but surely we’ve been here twice before with classy Galileo colts running in the Guineas and both failed (New Approach and Rip Van Winkle). Not even taking the new Godolphin link into consideration at this stage.
EDIT – Looked into the breeding again since I’d forgotten the trend. 14 of the last 15 2000 Guineas winners were sired by a horse who’d won a Group 1 between 5 and 8f, so Chabal is out on that (the exception is Mark of Esteem, sired by Darshaan).
Canford Cliffs – ran in the Coventry, ran over 6f in Group company, ran in Group company before September, won’t have run after September 4th, was going to run in the Middle Park and borderline too fast on pedigree.
Awzaan – ran over 6f in Group company and ran in the Middle Park.
Al Zir – again, nothing to rule him out on the trends at the moment, but needs to do the same 2 things as Steinbeck. A major negative would be him winning the RP Trophy. A 2nd or 3rd would be far better.EDIT – His sire, Medaglio D’Oro, didn’t win a Group/Grade 1 over 5-8f, so he’s also eliminated on the trends.
Workforce – needs to do a Golan if he’s to win, since again he lacks the same 2 things as Al Zir and Steinbeck.
NOTE – Stoute has said he’s done for the season.
Elusive Pimpernel – strictly speaking, on the trends his only negative is that he ran in Group company before September. My own worry is that John Dunlop said after the Acomb that Eddie Ahern said he was being horribly outpaced (it’s obvious when watching the replays as well), and being outpaced over 7f as a 2yo doesn’t bode well for a 3yo that’s going to have to sprint 8f. Again, he’s due to run in the RP Trophy and is in the same situation as Al Zir.
Cape Blanco – a late-April foal and he’s by Galileo. A far better Poulains-Prix du Jockey Club prospect.
St. Nicholas Abbey – a late-April foal and he’s by Montjeu.
Silver Grecian – ran in the Superlative and ran in Group company before September.Xtension – ran in the Coventry, ran over 6f in Group company, ran in Group company before September and Xaar has never sired a Group 1 winner in over 7 years at stud.
Dick Turpin – ran over 6f in Group company, ran in Group company before September, won’t stay a mile on pedigree, a late-April foal and his sire didn’t win a Group 1.
Alfred Nobel – do I really need to go into it? He breaks about 7 trends.
Thunder Bridge – his sire didn’t win a Group 1.
To give you an idea of how strong some of these trends are…
April/May/June foals are 1-9-63. Sea The Stars the only winner, and he only breaks the trend by 6 days.
Horses who didn’t run after September 4th are 2-0-28. Mark of Esteem and Henrythenavigator both victorious, but not even 1 of the other 28 placed.
Ran over 6f at Group level (bar Aidan’s runners) – 0-4-57.
Would need to go though and look carefully to get the actual stats, but of the past 15 winners, the only 4 who ran in Group company before September were trained by…you guessed it!
Best horses who fit the trends at the moment highlighted in red.
16th Oct EDIT – Nibani runs today, trades around 17/2 for the maiden but was touching 11s and 12s last night. Pekan Three runs in the same race but trades around 26s.
Managed to get 42p (!!!!) on Champagne Lifestyle for the 1000 Guineas ahead of the Rockfel. I’ll look at that race properly later on. I got all the runners in that added to the Betfair market and most of them have money at 100s available.
Couple of things for today. Nibani put in an encouraging debut for Stoute in the 2nd race at Newmarket today. He was off the bridle the entire way and there was absolutely no pace, but still stayed on at the end to grab 4th.
Pekan Three finished roughly 1/2L back in 6th after decent market support, but that puts him out of the running for the Derby on the trends.
Very interesting Rockfel Stakes taking place tomorrow, so I’ll go through that later on.
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At first glance Tabassum looks to have a massive chance in the Rockfel, but results at Newmarket have been unpredictable of late and I get the feeling that the form can be readily discounted in a number of cases. Sir Michael’s filly took full advantage of the front-running bias last time and may have been slightly flattered as a result – she’s not a 10/11 shot.
Although the form of her debut win isn’t great, I quite like Bint Doyen at a massive price. She really only got the hang of things late on at Folkestone, but was full of running at the finish and will have absolutely no problem handling faster ground. I often wonder about the sanity of Clive Brittain, but he has an uncanny knack of winning races like this and certainly has one bred for the job.
Silver Rock is also interesting.
By my reckoning, on the trends, on merit and on breeding, the only 3 runners from the Rockfel that can win the 1000 Guineas are Bint Doyen, Gibraltar Blue and Tabassum.
I have doubts about Gibraltar Blue on the ground front, and also because the Irish don’t have a good record bar Bolger and AOB, the usual suspects.
Absolutely no value on Tabassum in the current market, so I’ve put £2 on Bint Doyen for the 1000 at 129s. I’ll also back her for the Rockfel tomorrow, should get a better price.
I am an idiot though, why have I backed Champagne Lifestyle. She’s by Montjeu, ffs. He’s got an appalling record with fillies.
EDIT – If you take the credit for tipping her 1 minute before me, Equitrack, I will be seriously annoyed!
Delighted with that run from Steinbeck. Finally a proper price in accordance with what he’s done. 16/1 with Hills and I’ve had £10 on.
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I’ll be sticking a big, bold, black line through the Dewhurst form, as I have for much of Newmarket’s end of season racing. Results just aren’t making any sense and if Beethoven is a better horse than Steinbeck, Dick Turpin, Xtension and Buzzword, I’ll run bare-a*sed around the streets.
As i said in the Dewhurst thread.Steinbeck will improve a lot next year sad he did not win today but he ran well i am pleased by that run as i feel more will come next year.Anyone agree with that.
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And another ridiculous result in the Rockfel.
The was a huge difference between the winners of the Dewhurst and the Rockfel.
Beethoven had looked thoroughly exposed whereas Music Show had won two of her three races. It often pays to forgive one seemingly bad run.
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