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Ok, good day yesterday, managed to rule out Quarrel, Awzaan and Mufarrh from the 2000 Guineas reckoning. The latter was beaten for the 2nd time in a maiden and the former 2 ran over 6f in a Group race.
On the fillies’ front, didn’t learn much. Conniption is definitely still in the mix while Jeanie Johnston is definitely 100% gone on a personal level.
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Great thread guys
Sunday’s entry list at The Curragh shows various big names like Chabal, Steinbeck, Stunning View, etc, but they’re still just the early entries made ages ago. The proper entries will be out on Wednesday I think, or maybe even tomorrow.
The Maiden at Gowran Park on Saturday has found itself with a long list of many horses I’m really looking forward to – Fighting Brave, Reiteration, Captain James Cook and Jan Vermeer.
Seven Summits and Star Of The Show still have no entries (they’re the 2 horses I took out of my Guineas reckoning since they hadn’t debuted by Sept 10th).
I keep looking at my 1000 Guineas shortlist as I’d really like to half-commit myself to something there before the big races come along.
Conniption, Jeanie Johnston, Kithonia, Lady Darshaan, Seta, Shamandar and Valley Aunt are those on the list via the trends who I’ve removed on a personal betting level.
The 4 left are Lady Of The Desert, Foolish Ambition, Sent From Heaven and Mudaaraah. I’m hoping Lady Of The Desert gets beat in the Cheveley since winners of that have a pretty poor record when trying to follow up next May. True, Natagora did win but rarely has a luckier win on the Rowley Mile been seen. Had Spacious been used as she’s been used this year, had Infallible an extra 100 yards of stamina, had Lush Lashes been slightly fitter and had Nahoodh found a way through, there’s no way she’d have won (I realise this is a lot of if’s but you could have run that race 100 times and Natagora probably would have won only half a dozen of them. Even if the race were re-run tomorrow I couldn’t back her).
If you look back at the winners of the past 15 years who ran in the Cheveley Park, we have Harayir (3rd), Cape Verdi (4th) and Russian Rhythm (2nd).
Then look how the winners of the CP have fared – Serious Attitude, Indian Ink, Donna Blini, Carry On Katie, Seazun, Wannabe Grand, Pas De Response and Gay Gallanta. Only Wannabe Grand was placed and of the others only Seazun got even remotely close to placing.
So my theory regarding Lady of the Desert is that if she wins, I’ll remove her from my list. If she loses, she’ll be pushed out slightly in the betting since she’ll be kind of expected to win, even if Special Duty turns up. Best case scenario – she finishes 3rd or 4th. She’ll be 16/1 and on the trends will have a far better winning chance.
Not sure what to think of Sent From Heaven or Mudaaraah, especially after the Goodwood running told us absolutely nothing. I’d far rather see each other run again before making any decisions about them.
As for Foolish Ambition, well bar the genius and the special Finsceal Beo, hasn’t been an Irish winner since 1995 and probably for a good few years before that as well. I’d love to see her out again, especially on a proper surface. Right now, she’s a £2 punt, nothing more.
Right..just had an all log on to the racingpost to check out these entries over the coming week as i havent kept up to date for the past week.
The Royal Lodge is a strange one as its certain St Nicholas Abbey will run there…the other 4 all have entries in Nursey’s this coming week or previous weeks. So if AOB does want to win this race he will send St Nicholas and forget about the rest are there not good enough to win this race which looks a standard renewal with no Sexy horse other than the above mentioned.
The fillies mile is interesting as its certain that You be mine will run there after AOB saying she will go there after the impressive maiden win. There was alot left and its looks a typical hot Leapardstown maiden with the 2nd running tomoro and should win. Picture Perfect is left in from Watchman after its shocking piece of riding last week where it was never put in the race and looks a Filly of potential despite a 4-3 race record.
Cape Blanco and Reitireation looks the 2 horses to fight out the Beresford but i have a sneaky feeling that At First Sight could make a suprise appearance. Maybe Lord High Admiral will make his reappearance while Steinbeck surely wouldnt tackle a mile at this stage of his career. Looks a race with little in depth tbh…at least half the field will be AOB horses.
In the Goffs races….Gibraltar Blue/Walk On Bye/Carazam look very good horses for the Stacks and hopefully they will do serious damage for my favorite Irish Outfit. Cabaret and Stunning View should also make a appearance and Kevin will have Crystal Girl.
Gowran Park on Saturday is one for the tape recorder with a host of maidens.
The picture may be clearer but not by much after this weekend
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I can’t see Lady Of The Desert being beaten over six furlongs this season, Zarkava, but win or lose she’s some filly. Her run at York was only 0.06 seconds slower than Showcasing the day before and she won very easily. If she stays a mile, which she looks like she will, something is going to have to improve massively to trouble her in the Guineas.
What are your thoughts on the classic credentials of Waseet?
Equi, with the amount of speed in Special Duty’s pedigree, and given the trainer’s record with fillies in that race, I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s beaten into 2nd. Even Shamander could possibly turn up and just do her for toe.
Waseet’s on the 3rd tier of my Derby shortlist, only because he doesn’t hold a Dewhurst entry. If he did, he’d be on the 2nd tier. He looks to be a horse of huge potential and John Dunlop likes his 2yos this year. Definitely worth a couple of quid at a big price before his next start which will inevitably be in Group company.
I’ve just sent Betfair an e-mail asking for him to be added to the market so hopefully he’ll be available at a big price by Friday.
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He’s in the Royal Lodge on Saturday, possibly facing off against St Nicholas Abbey.
Hence the ‘hopefully he’ll be available at a big price by Friday’
Can’t help but notice Morana of Chapple-Hyam’s in there. He’s on my Derby trends list but the dam’s produced nothing remotely good yet. I just wonder…
Der we go the great man has spoken
St Nicholas Abbey= Beresford
Steinbeck/Cape Blanco both go to the Dewhurst
Viscount Nelson=Juvenile Breeders CupThe older horses
Rip=Classic
Septimus= Marathon
Yeats=Cadran
Mastercraftsman=ClassicMissed the early part of the interview on ATR but i assume plans are still ahead for himself to have a runner in the Royal Lodge and Fillies Mile and obviously Goffs
Cheers for that Wallace. Should be a penalty kick for St Nick, nothing else in that field to worry about.
Very strange that Septimus’ will be running in the Marathon. Not really sure why they’ve persisted with him this year, surely the best thing to do would have been to give him the year off. Unless they’re thinking of running him in the Japan Cup, HK Vase, etc. Strange decision.
You’ll Be Mine’s his Fillies’ Mile runner and his Royal Lodge stuff is just a load of crap.
Yh i don’t like the Royal Lodge runners but i think You’ll Be Mine could be decent but thats a big "if"
Just saw that about ST Nicholas Abbey in the beresford this sunday.
Zarkava you say ST Nic should win it but Reiteration could be in that race as well.But do you still think ST Nic should win well.
Entries for the Irish 2000 Guineas are out.
APOB has round about 33 entries, and
Captain James Cook
isn’t one of them, so you can strike a line through that one Zarkava, I’d have thought.
Also noticed that
Showcasing
doesn’t have an entry. It is fair enough that Abdullah doesn’t make early mass entries for the Derby when the horses are yearlings, but you’d have thought they’d have a fair idea who to enter for the Guineas at this stage.
edit: Also, no Godolphin entries!
It looks for me that Captain James Cook won’t make it to the track.
If St Nicholas Abbey is entered and he isnt that is very worrying.
He is in a maiden at Gowran on Saturday but looks unlikely he pitch up there.
HmmmWhats up with the 1000 entries on the Racing Post only 59 entries….there a whole host of Fillies that aren’t in there decs
Yeah looks like we can forget the Captain, Ferdinand Magellan and Jan Vermeer are both entered so that’s definitely a big negative. Actually he seems to be one of the few AOB runners who isn’t entered. September Morn’s entered and he hasn’t even had a maiden entry yet.
Actually Warm Memories isn’t entered either for Stoute-Abdulla and they have Treble Jig entered so looks like he’s no good. Scottish Reel also not entered. Seven Summits also, so I’ll definitely take him off my 2000 Guineas list. Star Of The Show entered though, really need to keep an eye on him. Actually the only ‘trend’ he breaks is that he’s sired by Galileo, so I’m not sure why I’ve not had him on the 2nd or 3rd rung of my shortlist.
Azmeel and Coordinated Cut are definitely my 1st and 2nd choices right now and I’ve backed both at 33s. High Twelve I’ll definitely be backing in the next week or so, certainly before he’s out again and I’ll wait and see which maiden Vita Venturi eventually runs in. If he takes up his engagement at Gowran Park on Saturday we can forget him, fingers crossed.
The real dark horse to keep an eye on right now is Mushreq of Stoute’s.
Ooooh, Azmeel not in the Irish 2000 entries, can take him off my 2000 Guineas list.
In terms of the 1000 Guineas, no entries for Conniption, Jeanie Johnston, Sent From Heaven or Mudaaraah, which leaves pretty much Foolish Ambition and Lady Of The Desert as the 2 on the trends from the original list.
If I go through the trends based on the Irish 1000 Guineas entries, out pop…several, several unraced horses and a list of about 30 other horses. Scratch that.
Although as unimaginative as it sounds, right now, Lady Of The Desert is the firm trends pick for the 1000 Guineas with Foolish Ambition as a 2nd pick.
Ok I’ve just parted with £8 in various Classic ante-post bets.
Sent From Heaven at 90s
Lady Darshaan at 95s
Foolish Ambition at 110s
Stunning View at 48sI”ve also backed Lady Darshaan and Mudaaraah for the Fillies’ Mile at 21s and 12s respectively and I’ll be backing Mudaaraah for the 1000 Gns before she runs on Saturday.
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