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The theory seems to be that war fronts don’t train on and there is some who don’t but the likes of declaratipn of war got better with age. We may have seen the last of AFB on the track but I suspect like war front himself he will produce some very good horses at stud especially with all the very good Galileo mares that coolmore have. Maybe Caravaggio won’t stay a mile but over 6 furlongs he looks so strong I’d back him against lady Auralia. Just goes to show what a loss scat Daddy is at stud.
The vast majority of War Fronts train on, over 80% of his SWs are 3yo+. But I think Aidan is on a learning curve with them. He knows the Galileos down to a tee now, knows how to get the best out of them. But the War Fronts are a different kettle of fish, very different physical types and most of the ones he has trained so far are bred for the dirt. Coolmore have invested a lot in the War Front x Galileo and War Front x Sadler’s Wells cross, hoping to get the best of both worlds.
And yes, Scat Daddy is a huge loss, but Coolmore sent No Nay Never a lot of good mares last year even before they lost Scat Daddy, so they have two shots at replacing him now.
Ballydoyle ran perfectly well as a 2yo without one, she won a G1 after all. Why reach for one with her? Why take it off after the Guineas if she needed it? Why put one on The Gurkha? Have they all as 3yos suddenly developed breathing issues that come and go at will? Aidan uses tongue ties as just another piece of equipment, to settle a horse in a race. His explanation for using a tongue tie and noseband on AFB in the Guineas was to slow him down, as he was showing too much speed at home, he was trying to eke out his stamina for the mile. He said it had worked successfully at home. Does anybody seriously think that AFB was working anything other than well at home before the Guineas, they would never have ran him in the Guineas if he was working poorly. Were they going to cross their fingers and hope he magically ran well? Several people independently reported how shell shocked they were afterwards. Something is preventing him from performing on the racecourse, whether it is physical or mental.
…That’s what team Coolmore want you to believe. There is only one Guineas (well one that really matters anyway). If a horse isn’t quite showing its best at home, then when it comes to the BIG one they’ll run it anyway and put appendages on in the hope of getting it to show its best form.
Ballydoyle was not the best two year old filly, she had something to find on Minding and Lumiere. She wasn’t a definite starter until a week before the race. Remember when C4 went to the yard and Ballydoyle seemingly blew her work-mate away in an apparent good bit of work… imo stage managed. Who was that work colleague?
A sprinter? Miler? Middle-distance? Stayer? One of Coolmore’s best? Or one of their worst? The filly was also tractable, one that would probably stay 1m4f. She was proven at a mile at two, no stamina doubts. Unlike Air Force Blue, if anything with Ballydoyle the question was: Would she have enough speed? The Gurkha had already proven himself at a mile in the French Guineas before a toungue tie was ever used. What reason dis AOB/Coolmore give for Ballydoyle and The Gurkha running in a first time tongue tie? It can’t have been the same as Air Force Blue.Had the problem been thought to have been fixed, he would not have been allowed by Coolmore to start at 4/1 in the Irish Guineas and 8/1 July Cup or even Evens in a Group 3.
Evidence seems (imo) to suggest for whatever reason Air Force Blue had a tongue tie fitted in the Guineas, it was not because of concerns about stamina/pulling. Tongue ties are usually worn by horses with possible (only possible not necessarily definite) breathing issues. Had Air Force Blue subsequently performed to his best, then I’d be willing to believe whatever ailled him in the Guineas had nothing to do with breathing. As it is, imo by far the most likely reason for his capitulation is a breathing problem.
AOB/Coolmore always come up with excuses, none of which are ever the horse’s fault. They’d rather people believed trainer or jockey error – because then it has less impact on the horse’s stud career… And that’s what matters to them. We’ve got to read between the lines.
Value Is EverythingBallydoyle was independently clocked by the Morning Line team, it was an impressive piece of work, she wasn’t working poorly, yet she wore a tongue tie in the 1000G, and she ran well.
The Gurkha wore a tongue tie in the two races before the French Guineas. Was he working poorly too?
Air Force Blue was 4/1 in the Irish Guineas because the ground turned soft! They only let him run, Aidan said very pessimistically before the race, because they wanted to check one more time whether he could say a mile.
If AFB had known breathing problems, he would be working poorly at home, and they wouldn’t have run him in 4 races. Did they think his breathing problems were going to magically go away with racing? They would have retired him before, or certainly after the Guineas (went off 4/5 favourite), with one of the excuses you think they always come up with.
There’s a lot of anti-Coolmore and anti-Ballydoyle bias, success does indeed breed contempt. In this case, I believe that they don’t know what is wrong with the horse, he’s working well at home and whatever is wrong only reveals itself on a racecourse when he comes under pressure. Today, Aidan said quite openly and regretfully that the horse is a shadow of himself. Does that fit in with the conspiracy theories?
Ballydoyle was independently clocked by the Morning Line team, it was an impressive piece of work, she wasn’t working poorly, yet she wore a tongue tie in the 1000G, and she ran well.
The Gurkha wore a tongue tie in the two races before the French Guineas. Was he working poorly too?
Air Force Blue was 4/1 in the Irish Guineas because the ground turned soft! They only let him run, Aidan said very pessimistically before the race, because they wanted to check one more time whether he could say a mile.
If AFB had known breathing problems, he would be working poorly at home, and they wouldn’t have run him in 4 races. Did they think his breathing problems were going to magically go away with racing? They would have retired him before, or certainly after the Guineas (went off 4/5 favourite), with one of the excuses you think they always come up with.
Sorry, I missed The Gurkha’s earlier tongue tie. When a horse has worn a tongue tie before and/or always done so, then that is entirely different to a horse putting up the season’s best two year old performance without one… and then next time out had one on in the Guineas. (The Gurkha’s form may not show a tongue tie in the French Guineas, but you don’t need to declare it in France).
Yes, The Gurkha probably does always wear a tongue tie because of a breathing issue, or at least was once heard to make a noise at home so they don’t take any chances in races.
This stuff about seeing “whether AFB could stay a mile” is more BS. You only have to look at how the horse went through his races at two and contrast that with AFB’s three year old runs. Remembering how dominent he was over 7f at two… It’s evident the old spark is simply not there, he’s been beaten at a mile well before stamina might become an issue. That; together with the fact he no longer finds off the bridle. all points to a breathing problem.
They did not think his breathing problems would “go away”, but it is possible to get another win in to him (without showing his best). If Air Force Blue is winless at three and/or hasn’t performed once to his two year old standard, then inevitably it hurts stallion prospects. Coolmore need to get another win or at least a Group 1 place before making their old excuses. Something like, “listen, if only things hadn’t gone wrong, he showed so much speed last time out, could’ve won many more Group 1’s, so he could”.
Value Is EverythingThere’s a lot of anti-Coolmore and anti-Ballydoyle bias, success does indeed breed contempt. In this case, I believe that they don’t know what is wrong with the horse, he’s working well at home and whatever is wrong only reveals itself on a racecourse when he comes under pressure. Today, Aidan said quite openly and regretfully that the horse is a shadow of himself. Does that fit in with the conspiracy theories?
Come off it, it’s not a conspiracy theory. Coolmore are a bloody good oporation at winning, but is also known for its spin.
Only when there’s no wool left to pull do they give up spinning.
Phil Bull once said “keep your eyes open and your ears shut” or words to that effect. Good advice.
Value Is EverythingWhat wouldn’t help stallion reputations is a known wind infirmity. Could there be something in Aidan’s claim of using the a TT as a tactical piece of equipment?
Does he use it more often than other trainers percentage-wise? Anyone with Raceform/ProForm who could run that query against a yard, or yards of similar size?
One of the things I’ve noticed with Ballydoyle is however bad their two year old’s run first time out (often when blatantly unfit) they often completely turn it around next time out.
Using that logic Pennsylvania might be overpriced at Gowran park tomorrow. Also named after an american sire like Utah
You can’t keep moving the goal posts about AOB’s use of the tongue tie on other horses when I come back with the correct facts.
And you can’t possibly maintain that Coolmore want to protect a future stallion prospect by running him, not once, not twice, not three times, but four times in the hopes of him winning a race, if he is working poorly at home with known breathing problems. I’m sorry, but that does not make sense at all. If he had known breathing problems and was working poorly, I find it hard to believe that they would fling a tongue tie on him and hope he runs well in the Guineas. When he finishes last, I certainly can’t believe that they would run him in three more races without the tongue tie, if (I repeat) he has known breathing problems and is working poorly. Please tell me their logic for doing that, cos I don’t really think they are that stupid.
So much better to say that the horse has had a setback (which in a way would be true), and after some time has passed, announce his retirement. He would still be a valuable stallion prospect. And they still had The Gurkha waiting in the wings to take over his mantle and become another valuable stallion prospect as a top miler in AFB’s absence.
And by the way, doesn’t putting a tongue tie on him defeat the purpose if they are trying to hide a breathing problem (if a tongue tie is so obviously associated with breathing problems according to some here).
And the definition of a conspiracy theory is ‘a theory that explains an event or situation as the result of a secret plan by usually powerful people or groups.’ It appears that the secret plan here is Coolmore hoodwinking people into thinking that AFB did not have a known breathing problem from before the Guineas. Q.E.D
What “goal posts” have I altered Sunspangled?
Air Force Blue’s stallion prospects would increase IF (that’s “IF”)he can win again or show form similar to last season. They must believe it possible to get to a point where he could win or show reasonable form; even if knowing it probably won’t be quite up to his best. If they did not believe that then yes, there’d be no point in continuing to race. After all, a horse can win without showing its best.
I am not saying Coolmore definitely knew AFB had a breathing problem before the Guineas. I am saying they at least had an inkling. May be someone on Coolmore’s staff heard a noise (associated with a wind problem). If there was a possibility/inkling of a problem then that explains why AFB ran in a first time tongue tie in the Guineas, if the inkling was correct then that explains why he ran so flat, explains why he hasn’t shown anything like his best since and explains why he struggles to find anything off the bridle nowadays.
The term “breathing problems” cover a wide range of possibilities which are often difficult to pinpoint/diagnose with any certainty. I gather it is sometimes impossible to tell in home work because the horse is not put under the same stresses as on race day. So unless they heard another noise, it is possible for them to think AFB could run to a reasonable standard – ie decide to race again. Working “poorly” does not necessarily mean working awful. Could mean a horse just isn’t quite showing what he used to. No doubt Coolmore vets have been searching for the exact problem, without success. ie They might know there’s a problem somewhere, just can’t find it… yet.
I would not be surprised if they give up and retire AFB soon. Or stop, have a wind op and return next season.
Value Is EverythingSo the Gurkha and Ballydoyle were also making noises?
No reason was given for them wearing a tongue tie.
Nor Deauville, Long Island Sound, Washinton DC, Port Douglas, Housesofparliament, Black Sea, Claudio Monterverdi, General MacArthur, …. as well as 2yos Intelligence Cross, Capri, Utah, Courage Under Fire,…. there could be more. That’s a lot of horses making noises!AFB travels OK on the bridle, though keenly, but when put under presssure, he doesn’t just start to struggle, he doesn’t make laboured progress against average horses, he goes backwards! There’s a complete resistance to going forward when put under pressure. Either something is hurting him or the horse has serious mental issues. Seamie said before the race on Sunday that he is not enjoying his racing. Somebody suggested that he has lost his confidence. I think that they are more likely explanations than breathing difficulties which they would have identified and fixed (under cover of a ‘setback’) and not persisted with him in some blind hope that he would regain his form despite the breathing problems (with no help from a tongue tie).
Anyway, it will remain a mystery, we are very unlikely to ever find out what’s up with him, and just as unlikely to see him on a racecourse again. End of story!
So the Gurkha and Ballydoyle were also making noises?
No reason was given for them wearing a tongue tie.
Nor Deauville, Long Island Sound, Washinton DC, Port Douglas, Housesofparliament, Black Sea, Claudio Monterverdi, General MacArthur, …. as well as 2yos Intelligence Cross, Capri, Utah, Courage Under Fire,…. there could be more. That’s a lot of horses making noises!AFB travels OK on the bridle, though keenly, but when put under presssure, he doesn’t just start to struggle, he doesn’t make laboured progress against average horses, he goes backwards! There’s a complete resistance to going forward when put under pressure. Either something is hurting him or the horse has serious mental issues. Seamie said before the race on Sunday that he is not enjoying his racing. Somebody suggested that he has lost his confidence. I think that they are more likely explanations than breathing difficulties which they would have identified and fixed (under cover of a ‘setback’) and not persisted with him in some blind hope that he would regain his form despite the breathing problems (with no help from a tongue tie).
Although a tongue tie is used as a breathing aid, just using one does not mean it definitely has a breathing issue.
When a horse is not the best runner going in to an important race, connections often try appendages (including tongue ties) on horses in a bid to (just possibly) find that extra few pounds. Although there is a possibility of it having an adverse affect, it’s worth trying because without it the horse is not up to the task anyway. Suspect this was the reason for Ballydoyle sporting one in the 1000… And many other TT users.
May be The Gurkha made a noise, may be there was some other information that team Coolmore found, may be there was just a slight question mark to suggest it was worth trying a tongue tie on debut… And when a horse runs well on debut/once with a tongue tie, why change? It does not mean he definitely has a breathing problem or that any horse wearing a TT definitely has breathing problems…
However, unlike Ballydoyle – in AFB’s case he was already by some way the best horse going in to the 2000, so taking a risk of an adverse affect would be puzzling if there weren’t very good reason for doing so.
Added to that, the way he races has changed from two to three. As you say yourself Sunspangled… Unlike last season, “AFB travels OK on the bridle, though keenly, but when put under presssure, he doesn’t just start to struggle, he doesn’t make laboured progress against average horses, he goes backwards! There’s a complete resistance to going forward when put under pressure”. That’s exactly what I’d expect from a horse with breathing problems.You also say, “Either something is hurting him or the horse has serious mental issues. Seamie said before the race on Sunday that he is not enjoying his racing. Somebody suggested that he has lost his confidence”. When a horse with breathing problems runs a race, it travels well but once push comes to shove it “hurts”. When this happens then the horse may not want to put everything in to it. So yes, breathing issues usually lead to “mental issues” and the horse “not enjoying his racing”, losing its “confidence”.
There are of course other possibilities, but ALL of what you speak of are what I regard as classic symptoms of breathing issues. If it were just one or two symptoms I wouldn’t be as confident, but imo the evidence stacks up.
Value Is EverythingWhatever the problem, it’s a serious one, the horse is running like a drain. If they know that the horse has serious breathing difficulties, why do they keep running him in the wild hope that he will recover his form, when they are not even taking any action to help him? They must have some reason to believe each time that the horse will come good, but how can a horse magically get over serious breathing difficulties without treatment?
Wouldn’t it be bordering on animal cruelty to keep running a horse with known serious breathing issues without taking any action to help him?
A sprinter? Miler? Middle-distance? Stayer? One of Coolmore’s best? Or one of their worst? The filly was also tractable, one that would probably stay 1m4f. She was proven at a mile at two, no stamina doubts. Unlike Air Force Blue, if anything with Ballydoyle the question was: Would she have enough speed? The Gurkha had already proven himself at a mile in the French Guineas before a toungue tie was ever used. What reason dis AOB/Coolmore give for Ballydoyle and The Gurkha running in a first time tongue tie? 
Added to that, the way he races has changed from two to three. As you say yourself Sunspangled… Unlike last season, “AFB travels OK on the bridle, though keenly, but when put under presssure, he doesn’t just start to struggle, he doesn’t make laboured progress against average horses, he goes backwards! There’s a complete resistance to going forward when put under pressure”. That’s exactly what I’d expect from a horse with breathing problems.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.