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It looked impossible for the horse to finish 2nd but Fortune got him there hands and heels, one to keep an eye on for sure. Not sure the Hannon horse is any great thing despite being well touted by connections early season and holding a group 1 entry for one of the Irish races, would take Home of the Brave if they met again.
good spot TYF.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Kevin Ryan has an expensive purchase running at York today. Flaming Spear contests the 4.05 race and is entered in The Gimcrack so presumably has shown something at home. He cost a little bit over a quarter of a million quid and is by Lope De Vega, who I don’t know a lot about but he also sired Belardo who won well first time up for Roger Varian before a respectable fourth to Ivawood next time.
Ryan Moore is booked and Flaming Spear was a 11/4 shot in the forecast prices but is generally an odds on shot now. The stable won the race last year with The Grey Gatsby and we all know how that panned out. I’ll tune in at 4.05 to see if he’s any good.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
No wonder Peacock didn’t run today the way Estidhkaar won.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Epithet hasn’t boosted the form of Peacock either.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I wouldn’t be so concerned about Epithet not boosting the form Nathan.
I started a thread last year about Godolphin 2yo’s not progressing after their first or second runs. Those who win first time often fail to make the expected progress in their next start and I wish I had a quid for every Timeform preview that said "Sure to improve" regarding a Godolphin winner stepping outside maiden company, only to then see it fail to make the expected step up. Other Godolphin 2yo’s seem to go close first time, win a maiden and then not go forward afterwards. My theory was that it might be best to back them first time if you are going to get a decent price.
I haven’t backed a Godolphin runner in an awfully long time and overall I find them disappointing, although some of their older horses seem to do OK.
Richard Pankhurst was a good winner of four horses who have won from Peacock’s race and I expect the Hannon horse to make good progress from race 1 to 2. Ivawood and today’s Superlative winner are really likeable types for the stable though and the team seem to be making positive murmurings about Ivawood in particular. It’s early days but I stepped in for Ivawood for the 2000G, as Richard Hughes said this horse gave him the "wow factor"
The horse I mentioned earlier, Flaming Spear made a very promising start to his career for Kevin Ryan at York today. He travelled very well before the runner up seemed to get first run and looked like it might be tricky to catch. Ryan Moore got after the winner but never really got that serious with him and it became clear he was going to win. In the end he drew nearly 3 lengths clear and there was more than another four lengths back to the third. It might not have been a great field but he put daylight back to most of them and looked like another furlong would be fine. He went into the Guineas betting at 40/1 and it was a pleasing debut for the horse following in the footsteps The Grey Gatsby trod last year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Flaming Spear has been cut to 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas. I would say that is a bit skinny considering the Superlative winner Estidhkaar has achieved much more at this stage and is available at the same odds. Ivawood is as low as 12/1 now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
..yeah..I suppose she does look a bit small now you come to mention it…having another look… the opposition has dropped away for Sunday’s Longchamp race.. Fabre has pulled out Al Naamah and De Treville… so Sivoliere is still up against a few previous winners but none from big stables..can’t wait to see how she gets on – I do hope she goes on from here…
She looked a non-stayer today, she was ridden from the front and over the 7f I thought it would be hard to get home in the soft ground. Perhaps sprinting will be her game but I can’t see her being a classic filly after today’s performance.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wonder if I could get odds on next year’s 2000 Guineas, Derby & St Leger winners have not seen a racecourse yet? Odds separately of course. I expect the odds for next year’s Derby winner not having run yet being lower than the same for the Guineas winner.
I will say that I was at Kempton back in oh, April I think, to see Tiggy Wiggy’s first run. Without any horse having run the filly started 8/13F, me and my old man knew the word was out then and decided not to get involved. To this day I have yet to see a better debut from a horse, she was about a furlong clear coming into the straight and won like she saw the Tesco’s van in the car-park. From that day forward (bar Royal Ascot) I proceeded to pile on her in every race, I did get caught very cold when she lost at York but recouped it at Sandown. She started 3/1 that day and it sill seems a mystery how that happened. The only reason I didn’t back her in the Queen Mary was that I thought Anthem Alexander was unbeatable given what I had seen from her and so switched ships. Probably my best judgement call so far this season.
So my two most impressive 2 year olds this season are Tiggy Wiggy & Athem Alexander.
She looked a non-stayer today, she was ridden from the front and over the 7f I thought it would be hard to get home in the soft ground. Perhaps sprinting will be her game but I can’t see her being a classic filly after today’s performance.
…I agree with that.. I’m disappointed she isn’t taking more after her sire..I thought the longer trip would suit.. you would also think though that Rouget would have known she was a doubtful stayer and advised Soumillon to ride more conservatively… we rarely see one make all the running over that 7f at Longchamp….
..I still like her though.. and like to think there’s a group race in her somewhere…
Harry Herbert has said that Al Naamah will next appear in a listed race at Deauville early August. She is then due to step up to group company before her ultimate target the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
We’ll have to see Andy. Fair enough if you disagree, but I think HotB will end up being the better horse by 15-20lbs.
Home Of The Brave could improve a fair bit Young Fella but he will need to do so. The winner of that race St Brelade’s Bay went on to finish fourth as top weight in a Nursery next time out.
I was having a look through the ratings yesterday and St Brelade’s Bay is rated 86 now. A lot of the promising 2yo’s don’t have a rating yet but one who does is Richard Hannon’s impressive Superlative winner Estidhkaar who has been rated 113.
Home Of The Brave is entered in The Gimcrack but would need to take a huge step forward to be competitive there and I would expect another maiden first and then find something more suitable after that.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I prefer Ivawood to Estidhkaar.
Even though Estidhkaar’s performance in the Superlative Stakes was impressive, I still found it to be a grinding one. This horse strikes me as the type who’ll win some good races but not many top level ones. I’m speculating that he might be similar to past horses such as Salse, Muhtarram, Cityscape to name a few.
Ivawood looks to have the most improvement in him, looks the real deal and his form holds substance. His stride angle and the way how he quickens leaves me convinced that he’s a serious candidate for the 2000 Guineas and a potential top miler.
Peacock is entered in Saturdays Winkfield Stakes the race Toronado won on his second start. Bit of an omen that…..
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=606046&r_date=2014-07-26#raceTabs=lc_
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Next years Derby favourite John F Kennedy makes his debut at Leopardstown tonight. Already backed to 20/1 for Epsom glory he will surely end up a silly price if winning the 5.25 race over 1 mile this evening.
We won’t get rich backing Tapestry’s full brother today as early odds have him in at 8/13.
Should be interesting to see how he gets on but he’s not for me at either odds for the two races.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
John F Kennedy never really looked like winning today. He looked a bit green and slightly awkward a couple of times. He came under the push a fair way out and looked pretty one paced as he finished in a heap with two others behind the horse who took control of the race, and never looked like getting caught, Jim Bolger’s Hall Of Fame.
Today’s winner had finished behind Aidan O’Brien’s Highland Reel on his debut and was beaten more than 12 lengths that day. That leaves John F Kennedy with quite a bit of improvement to find to match his stable companion. I would be surprised if those who backed him for the Derby would be feeling on good terms with themselves at the moment but Australia lost on his first start, so you never know.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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