2yo Races and Maidens

[Bulwark]

I generally always tend to do quite well in the 2yo division over the course of a season, as I believe they are the easiest to get value in, so have started a thread for this season. 1pt in this section is a tenner for me. Quite a big layout for the first day and much will hinge on the ground being gd-fm, and selections being fully stoked up but I’m hopeful.

The Brockelsby 1410 Doncaster

Archers Road 1pt e/w 2pts win @ 25-1

Think this horse has the perfect profile for this race, especially with gd-fm having emerged, and really should win it on that basis if fully fired up.

Also

1/2pt e/w 1/2pt win Reel Easy @ 66-1

1/2pt e/w 1/2pt win Usquaebach @ 50-1

1pt win Trade Secret @ 20-1

Doncaster 430

1pt e/w Refuse Toulouse @ 33-1

London Bridge looks a hot favorite for this race and should really win, but am hoping this one can go well enough to place.

Kempton 410

1pt e/w 1pt win Lady Lion @ 16-1

This looks like a likely sort for this sort of race, and despite hannons and stan moores probably being decent enough, I think she has a decent chance at a decent price.

[tonsils53]

I agree about Reel Easy in the Brocklesby @66/1 is a fantastic ew price.But the other one I like is a cheap purchase called Pullyourfingerout.Stable not noted for 2yr old runners but the dosage index is 8.00 compared to reel easy’s 5.00 and you never know in these races.At Kempton in the 2.25 Five Star Junior’s dosage is so far ahead of anything else in the field he is a worthy fav even at 4/1.The value could be Satwa Street at about 9/1 second best dosage .

[Bulwark]

Well 13pts out 6 returned, was almost on a very nice result with Archers Road, and I would have got away with it too, if it hadnt been for Pat eddery and his pesky kid.

Running total = -7pts loss

[davidbrady]

Hi Bulwark

Check out this site below which is an excellent source of 2yo info and race previews throughout the season

The site seems to be slimmed down a bit this year but still contains a very thorough preview for both 2yo races today

http://www.b2yor.co.uk/2009_Season/09_P … cgprev.htm

[Bulwark]

Cheers DB, its definitely very informative and well thought out, but their style of picking these races is very different to mine.

I would tend to pick a horse by it’s profile and suitability to the likely conditions, and wouldnt pay a great great amount of attention to trainer form or campaigning tactics, more in hope that the horse is fit and ready to run.

They would tend to sort through horses focusing heavily on the campaigning tactics of the trainer and much less attention to the merits of the actual horses.

This led to them completely writing off the chances of the first two home in the brocklesby yesterday, despite both having very good profiles for the race itself. Reading their report would significantly have reduced confidence in backing either of those horses though.

They did however give the winner of the kempton race a slight chance mainly on his trainer merits.

I will keep an eye on this, but I suspect that the logic they use when reading a race is much the same logic as the bookmakers use when pricing one up, so I would imagine it will be tricky enough getting value using such methods.

I only realised earlier today that Lady Lion was a withdrawal in the 410 yesterday so:

Running total= -4pts loss

[davidbrady]

After the horses have run once or twice, the race analyses revert to more standard form study. At the start of the season however, the site (owner) uses trainer stats and analysis as opposed to pedigrees, which I know is your preferred approach. More than one way to skin a cat, as I know you are well aware.

Anyhow I look forward to using both sources to pay off my mortgage over the next 6 months!

[Bulwark]

Lets hope so David, I have an interview for a job in Riyadh tomorrow though, so may have to put this thread on hold for a bit. My experience of trying to pick horses whilst overseas is that it isnt quite as easy, and dont even know what the situation is with getting to watch races out there either.

[Bulwark]

Cheers Ethan, I bloody need it, as it’s a good wee number and will be gutted if I dont get it. It’ll be or this time tomorrow I expect.

[Bulwark]

Got that job Ethan , off to England to start training in next few weeks then off to Saudi.

Newmarket 225

Iverbridge Lad 2pt win (currently 24s on BF)

Ant Music 2pt win (currently 54s on BF)

Will add in prices in the morning when I get my bets on. Avonbridge has been pretty impressive so far with his 2yos this year and this is the first runner for antonius pius who himself was a precocious 2yo, and who I am expecting to do well with his 2yo crop this season.

[davidbrady]

Congrats and good luck with the job Bulwark

[Bulwark]

Cheers lads , Ive managed to get 40-1 on Iver Bridge Lad and 66-1 on Ant Music with Stan James. Have went for a 1pt e/w instead of 2pts win, wasnt going to bother with e/w as only 7 runners, but the prices are better than I was expecting and a place would be decent.

In between sunbathing by the pool and drinking champagne that is

Thought that was how it’d be myself until was looking at some website last night about laws in Saudi Arabia, and it somewhat pooped on my party. Think I am in a compound away from all that carry on though, or at least I certainly hope so (there is a swimming pool there which is good). Money isnt bad though and its tax free so hopefully will only have to do a few years.

[Bulwark]

Newmarket 225

Mexican Milly 2pts win @ 11/2

Drifting a bit but still think she has a decent profile for this race.

Also 1pt Zambuka @ 33-1

1/2pt e/w Usquaeback @ 100-1

[Bulwark]

Newbury 315

Father Time 3pts @ 4-1

Really like this brother of Passage Of Time as one who has everything in his favour and isnt badly priced. Obviously not a maiden but won a maiden on his last start.

[Bulwark]

Newbury 135.

One Cool Buck 1 pt win @ 12-1
Spanish Acclaim 1pt win @ 16-1
Angel Of Fashion 1pt win @ 16-1

Dependant on how much give is in the ground I can see all 3 of these having a decent chance.

[Blunkett]

I always like reading your threads Bulwark.

Looking forward to today’s Newbury card, there are some decent animals on show. I’ll be playing the following.

1:35 – Stargate and State Affair.
2:40 – Cake
3:15 – Palavicini
4:25 – Clowance House

And

2:00 Thirsk – Chicita Banana

[Bulwark]

Ascot 210

Archers Roads 4pts win @ 9-1

This horse should win on todays conditions and looks very overpriced. Will take a good one to beat him.

[Bulwark]

One who broke her maiden last time out, and could potentially go well today is City Dancer in the 405 @ Musselburgh. Has conditions to suit and trainer done well with Look Busy at about this time last season.

1pt e/w City Dancer @ 20-1 (Hills)

[Author]

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