June 25, 2003 at 18:00 #1221
Can anyone explain why the win ratio of favourites in 2 year old 5/6 furlong Maiden races on the turf is so high?June 25, 2003 at 19:35 #48400Nick HattonMember
- Total Posts 399
I think the reason it that these races usually only contain a handful of ‘contenders’. Unlike in handicap races for example (where every horse has some kind of a chance) there are usually some real no-hopers lining up in maiden races and therefore favourites win more often.
Hope that makes sense
NickJune 25, 2003 at 19:45 #48402
Thanks for responding Nick.<br>But most of the horses in these types of races have very little, if any, racecourse form to go on.<br>Do you mean by "the handful" with chances mainly comes down to breeding? This topic really interests me.June 25, 2003 at 21:05 #48403Nick HattonMember
- Total Posts 399
I think there are two main profiles of horse which are likely to win 2yo maiden races …
1) The most likely winner of a maiden race is probably a horse who has already run well and based on it’s form arguably deserves to win the race.
2) A horse on it’s racecourse debut who is trained by someone capable of getting the job done at the first time of asking. Breeding plays a part in this as many sires pass on an ability to win when fresh or as juveniles, but I believe that even with the correct breeding a suitable trainer is the most crucial factor in winning first time out. The following trainers are amongst the most skilled in this respect :
TD Barron<br>MR Channon<br>JR Fanshawe<br>JHM Gosden<br>WJ Haggas<br>R Hannon<br>PW Harris<br>W Jarvis<br>M Johnston<br>DR Loder<br>PJ Makin<br>J Noseda<br>AP O’Brien<br>JW Payne<br>Sir M Stoute<br>Saeed bin Suroor<br>GA Swinbank
<br>Some of the top yards like to bring their horses on gradually or have 3yold careers in mind and therefore don’t win as often as the market expects first time out. Examples are TD Easterby, BW Hills, BJ Meehan & Sir M Prescott.
Horses who have already recorded poor form are extremely unlikely to win as are the majority of debutantes.
Other points to note from a statistical basis are that professional jockeys outperform claiming jockeys in maiden races both in terms of strike-rate and p.o.t.
Also colts outperform geldings which is overlooked by many punters. As in most race types fillies have a slight disadvantage when running against colts.
One overriding factor which is often ignored but is very helpful in assessing juveniles is paddock watching. This is obviously impractical for a lot of punters but especially in the early part of the season a lot of extra clues are there to be gleaned.
Hope this ranting is of some help and if you have any more questions then fire away ……
NickJune 25, 2003 at 21:14 #48406
Nick,<br>You are a diamond geezer!!!
Thanks for taking the time to give me food for thought.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.