2023 Grand National

Wilts, I’ve bet all my pals for this! Vanillier, I suppose; I was a bit affronted on his behalf when people dismissed his Albert Bartlett as a rubbish one and thought about this race then; but then sort of forgot about him. I won’t be too annoyed with myself if he wins though as it’s not as if I’ve bet him all the way through his career.
(“How annoyed will you be if it wins today and you haven’t backed it?”) is what I foolishly base a lot of my bets on

Maybe Galvin- he’s a decent price for a good horse laid out for it- but again, I haven’t been a devoted follower and I have to stop somewhere so I will just happily applaud VtC and his other backers if he wins.

Vanillier is my biggest result. Never thought I’d be saying that as I’d all but given up on him over fences, but as soon as the weights came out I just couldn’t resist. He’ll either fall at the first or he’ll win. If he still has a jockey on his back after first Bechers; I’ll be very excited indeed.

My next best result is Roi Mage, whom I added in the last hour. Managed to get 35’s boosted each way and 50s on the exchange. Just a very intriguing runner with some good performances to his name.

Le Milos looks about right in the market now. Has had an impeccable preparation, yard is in good form, and he be could still have something in hand.

Corach Rambler looks bulletproof quite frankly. I’m not one bit concerned about his running style, and I’m not reading too much into his head carriage last time. The fact is he’s 10lbs well in and 2 of the last 5 winners came from off the pace. It’s just a different race now.

They’re my main four with small each way savers on Back On The Lash, Gabbys Cross and Francky Du Berlais.

Of the other runners with a supposed good chance:

Galliard De Mesnil may have more improvement in him but needs to. Bare form of the stayers novice he won to me does not look exceptional. Albeit may be better than winning distances suggest in coming from so far back and making – if not mistakes – several awkward novicey looking jumps. Can see him innitially being kept away from most of the runners out the back and may be tricky finding a way through the field on a novice. Too short for me.

Aint That A Shame just doesn’t seem the right type in my opinion. Albeit should really have won his last three races. Twice managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Looked to be going best in the Munster National but made mistakes at the last two and headed on the finish line. Then going best before wandering on the run-in to be fourth in a close finish. Yes, he’s better than those performances so obviously has potential and therefore has improvement in him. However, with mistakes and possible wandering / temperamental question marks… And then there’s a massive trip question mark. Not bred for this, being by 7f / miler Jeremy and dam’s progeny don’t shout stamina either. Aint That A Shame finished last on only try at around beyond 3m… Is fully effective at 2m4f and even at that trip travels through the race with ease. So not exactly crying out for 4m2f+. If it wasn’t for Rachael Blackmore he’d be double his price. Famous last words but looks an ideal lay bet.

Mr Incredible is another that may be difficult to win with. Has refused to race at the start before going to the Champion Irish Trainer. Even so still seems reluctant and this race’s prelims put an emphasis on a horse’s mind. If setting off may be in last or even a long last before the first fence and wasn’t fast over the first at Cheltenham. Having said that, after the start did nothing wrong and isn’t without a chance on form. So if fancying him may be one to take a shorter price in running – after the first fence. He’s just too short at the moment at around 14/1.

I was very keen on Le Milos after the “Coral Gold Cup” at Newbury. Would probably have been a main bet without his defeat at Kelso. Said to be short of peak fitness there but his jockey went for home too early. Going from travelling well to nothing in a few strides. Way he’s gone previously suggests stamina should not be a problem but seemed to have an unnecessarily hard race there. Stable haven’t been in good form recently but won one earlier today. Had a saver on Le Milos.

7 year olds are likely to improve the following year. Thought Noble Yeats would have a good chance here but the handicapper has put the horse up a staggering 19 lbs. True he has seemed to improve already. Winning twice before the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Against the very best at level weights got badly outpaced on the second circuit, dropping to last before staying on extremely well. That suggests he’d have been in with a great chance there had the race been 4m2f. At today’s trip could progress further so even with being 19 lbs worse than last year is not out of things. Probably has a better chance than betting suggests. That said, had a hard race at Cheltenham. Another saver.

Any Second Now finished second to Noble Yeats. My main bet last year. But although obviously runs extremely well in this race / this course, he’s now 11 years old so is unlikely to improve this time around. Looks handicapped out of things from a winning point of view.

I quite like ASN’s stable companion, Capodanno. Won the 3m grade 1 novice at Punchestown in April last year by 6 1/2 lengths. Albeit what looks now not an exceptional renewal. Looked capable of better but has only been seen once since. Deliberately to keep his rating? Long way below his best in February reappearance so just how he is right now is hard to tell. May be keep an eye on the market – owner JP likes a bet and if fancied will be backed. Currently a 29/1 shot out fractionally from this morning.

Can we believe the Bobbyjoe chase in a small field?. Winner Kemboy is probably on the downgrade at the age of 11, so just how is Vanillier’s staying on second? Remains to be seen… And jockey left it late, possibly should have won. Stands a good chance here if repeating what looked an improved performance. That a better round of jumping than previously, so has he improved in that department too or was it a one off? Fell on penultimate start in a bigger 23 runner field. This is 39 runners. Apologies, this is too negative, if the form is correct could be the winner and I’ve saved just in case.

The Big Dog has won two big Irish handicaps this season. Thought I’d be on him – especially as a dog owner. Since travelling reasonably against Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup before falling. His true chance relies on that run which is difficult to evaluate. If he’d have finished 4th just fairly close to the third Fury Road then at these weights he’d be a good bet today. However, the time tells us it was slowly run. Inferior horses can get closer in such circumstances and imo it looks a fluke. Jumping seems a problem too. Not only that fall but even in those two victories has often backed off conventional fences. So will he take better to these fences? If not is likely to lose lengths jumping.

Our Power is interesting. Drying ground is in his favour but possibly could do with another day’s sun. An improver, has won his last two at Kempton and Ascot. Well handicapped, 4 lbs well-in. Fair chance of staying further. But why has he been primarily raced right handed? 6 of 8 steeple chases on right handed. In the two left handed fell at the first at Doncaster and in the other one a reasonable 5th in Corach Rambler’s first Ultima. Has certainly improved going right handed since but whether that will continue here?

Quite like Longhouse Poet. Is better than last year’s – in the end – well beaten 6th suggests. Jumped very well and made ground at many obstacles, apart from a mistake at the smallest fence Foinavon. However, paid the price for being a little too free. Lost energy meant losing a lot of ground in the final straight when stamina failed. Could do a lot better if settling and nothing in other races to say he shouldn’t stay if settling. I here he could be held up behind horses this time, but that does go against his usual way of running and therefore will Longhouse Poet jump as well? Guess what, another saver.

I wasn’t sure on Jeremy’s progeny staying wise. In fact I’ve realised I’m getting him mixed up with Nathaniel who I’ve followed a bit recently!

Snowflakes hitting the course. Ground conditions could worsen.

My 4 against the field…

Delta Work
Noble Yeats
The Big Dog
Coko Beach

Just sitting watching the protesters gaining access to the course..sad sad sad they have no idea how much stress they are causing the horses waiting to run…idiots

Absolutely Triptych, this is really not good.

Aintree are going to need to look further at security, though I appreciate they have a difficult task given the size of the course.

3 longshot place bets

Coko Beach
Cape Gentleman
Our Power

How are they letting people onto the course? Even the glorified hayfields demarcated by traffic cones we run on here have better security than that.