- This topic has 345 replies, 55 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Chapman saying none of the paper tipsters are giving cloth cap , I wonder how the market will be effected without the once a year/ I like the name / lucky number brigade betting , the bookies must be gutted to miss out on that easy money
That Warwick handicap was another poor race ginge
Just look at the runs of the horses behind them since
The third was way down the field in the ultima
The 4th finished 6th and PU in its races since
This is the national surely anyone who’s not on at nice prices antepost needs to be trying to pick holes in the short priced fav
I don’t see how that was remotely neccessary from the times yesterday. Ludicrous. It will be on the slow side then. Not ideal for favourite backers.
HDLTG – “Chapman saying none of the paper tipsters are giving cloth cap , I wonder how the market will be effected without the once a year/ I like the name / lucky number brigade betting , the bookies must be gutted to miss out on that easy money”
Aye, I’ll be very interested in how the O/R percentage ends up today.
BUY THE SUN
McCoy thinks with the sun out the ground will be perfect , if he doesn’t win it won’t be an excuse
what horses in the race are better handicapped ?
Stamina doubts just like most of the field, but from the Irish form on paper
Farclas gave effectively 13 lbs to the Shunter at Cheltenham and runs off the same mark
https://www.racingpost.com/results/11/cheltenham/2021-03-18/777667
The other race has turned out like gold dust which also brings in Minella Times
https://www.racingpost.com/results/187/leopardstown/2021-02-07/777105
Not particularly interested in what McCoy says mate. Nothing yesterday got within 10 seconds of standard. Why they would water 6mm based on that is beyond me.
BUY THE SUN
Both are short enough when taking in the will they stay question , I like farclas and you could argue he has a sim profile to tiger roll
From the Irish side also, would not be surprised if Any Second Now had 10 lb up his sleeve as well.That’s just a wild hunch like.
FF what do you think the hole in cloth cap is ?
As iv said I dont think he has as much in hand as his price suggests
And he is surely not going to get an easy lead which is the tactic that seems to have bought about much of his improvement
Do I think he has a good chance?
Yes he definitely does
Do I think hes a good price?
No not at all and I dont think burrows saint (my ante post pick) is a good price either given the doubts about him going left handed
With the watered ground, and it being a big advantage to be handy these days, I’m sorely tempted to back Yala Enki. But he’s trained in the wrong country! Will have a think for while.
BUY THE SUN
I agree HDLG, there are a few Irish horses that could improve, but they have to improve a lot to get to Cloth Cap who himself is still improving.
Burrows Saint could well improve quite a lot. Hasn’t been in the same form since the Irish National, but hasn’t had an extreme trip since and unexposed given this sort of test. However, he was put up 12 lbs for the Irish National and not come down at all. ie On what he’s done is not well handicapped but could (and needs to) improve quite a bit.
Any Second Now is imo Cloth Cap’s main rival. Stayed the Kim Muir trip in 2019 like a horse who’d stay further, yet seemed to improve back at 2 miles last time out. Probability a longer trip will bring further progress, just a matter of whether this will be a little too far.
I too like Milan Native (at the price). Looked one with potential when upped to 3m2f of Kim Muir (don’t mention trainer and jockey) – furthest he’d raced up to that point. Decent form early on but lost his way… 13/2 odds for the Ultima suggests better was expected at Cheltenham. tbh That may have been his target but not his fault lost a shoe. May be more to come at this trip.
As you say, stable comp’ Farclas is an obvious improver, would’ve been closer to The Shunter at Cheltenham but for stumbling on turn. But stamina looks a massive worry.
Minella Times might improve, but on all known form is extremely short to me, People backing the jockey. Stable in nowhere near as good form now than was at Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingFF91,
It does not matter what the fourth, fifth etc have done since or did previously – their form has nothing to do with how the Kelso race has been rated.Don’t know who you’re thinking was “way down the field” in the Ultima?
Do you really think Two For Gold and Aso were that far below their Warwick form – when the difference in performance between the two horses (Warwick to Kelso) is just 5 lbs?
Aso was outclassed in his two subsequent races (Gold Cup and Bowl) just as his form and odds indicated.
Two For Gold was never going to take to Grand National fences especially held up – needs riding with a clear view of his fences otherwise sulks. So can also be easily excused his subsequent start in the Topham.
Do you believe the winner and second at Warwick (Two For Gold and Aso) were also well below form that day at Warwick too?
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.