2021 Grand National

Excellent write up Vtc,
I’ve just written a write up for a TRF mate and it seems we agree on many.

Have no Timeform don’t know yet whether I will get involved. Place only odds are usually best on the day. Presumably Bet365 will be doing their “free each way bets” that made the betfair place market same as previous years… People laying on betfair to get a no lose wager.

Cloth Cap will certainly be interesting. Don’t seem to be many horses “well in” this year and he’s so well in it’ll be difficult to see him out of the first four if completing. Only possible concern that I can see is the fact he’s made all (jumping particularly well) the last twice, at both Newbury and Kelso. Will he jump as well if (with 39 others) unable to dominate? Seems more front runners in the race than usual too. Often we hear the excuse “didn’t take to it”, but often is purely wasn’t able to do what the horse likes to do. Not been over this course before but Hennessy is usually a pretty good trial. That said, even @ 4/1 for the win, must surely have better than 1 in 5 chance. Probably get 5/1+ tomorrow. On drying ground the Grand National usually favours 3m2f horses rather than extreme distance sorts (obviously with the exception of stayers who’ve had the speed to run their best on good ground).

Strangely, I was looking through the race myself yesterday looking for racing patterns and came up with the same big odds one as you and Red Rum. Minellacelebration – as you say Mtoto, his Aintree (Mildmay) form is excellent and you can pretty much ignore other form in between. There’s also a possibility of being better (or more consistent) in the Spring / Summer… Remember Aurora’s Encore? The November Becher poor run may have been due to that and badly hampered on other start over GN fences. And has had a wind op and won off a lay off before.

The others at big prices am looking at are Bristol De Mai, Talkischeap and Takingrisks. Latter has a habit of coming up at big odds, although may be doesn’t jump well enough for a main bet. Alan King hasn’t been in great form but Talkischeap won the Bet365 (spring form) and although not that well handicapped still unexposed over longer distances.

Bristol De Mai may be top weight but is well handicapped if looking back far enough. Ignore right handed and undulating form and comes right in to it. This is a flat, left handed course. Hasn’t a great winning record at Aintree but some of the placed Grade 1 form isn’t far behind his best. Those have also often come after Cheltenham and may do better… Although again is a front runner can also run well if just prominent. However, drying ground would be a bigger concern.

Any Second Now is perhaps the second best weighted horse. Ted Walsh has said he doesn’t like a big field. Normally wouldn’t take much notice of what that man says, but form could be said to have born it out… at least since and/or ignoring the Kim Muir. Might be a saver.

Burrow Saint went up a lot for the Irish National. However, although not done much since that’s been over shorter. So although if anything poorly handicapped on what he’s done… still probably has a lot of improvement in him… And we are talking about a certain Willie Mullins’s number 1. But overall price seems pretty short.

tbh Minella Times doesn’t look a good bet to me, I think most of the money is purely because of the rider. If she wins I’ll be cheering her home. But… should imo be twice its current price although the public (my dad included) may shorten it up to favourite yet.

Certainly will “enjoy”.

I agree Tatling. Sadly they have half the field rather than just the two or three!

Excellent write up VtC

For the first time I can remember, fingers crossed here, my ap bets have made it. I’ve added Minellacelebration

Alpha Des Obeaux 66-1 ew 5pc
Burrows Saint 25-1
Kimberlite Candy 40-1 ew 5pc
Minellacelebration 100-1 ew 5pc

Good luck all

Cloth Cap is for me now a must bet @ 6/1
Minellacellebration @ 119/1 is now the same price I took for Aurora’s Encore 8 years ago.
Also done (to win a little less) Takingrisks 29/1, Talkischeap 80/1.
Savers on Any Second Now and Milan Native.

Yeah, I have the same issue with Cloth Cap. Surely he is a few pounds in, bot 14 pounds based of that poor race at Kelso seems absurd.

Farclas is my main bet. Light weight, Jack Kennedy, strong Irish handicap and Cheltenham form and improving. Also added The Long Mile based on his Irish handicap form and Hogan Heights because of his course form.

Farclas 22/1 EW
The Long Mile 85/1 EW
Hogan Heigts 100/1 EW

Those that say Cloth Cap should not be given the full credit for the bare Kelso form are imo correct. But the handicapper hasn’t rated the horse as doing so. Seems to me wisely rating Cloth Cap cautiously on 162. Not giving the horse the full amount second and third’s official ratings suggest by the weights and distances.

Two For Gold is not the sort who usually takes to Aintree, so the Topham run can surely be ignored as a piece of form… Along with Aso’s two subsequent runs when outclassed in Grade 1’s, Gold Cup and Aintree Bowl.

A pound a length is a bit arbitrary but…

Usually when separated by a neck in a 12 runner handicap the first two can be thought to have at least run to form… And at Warwick, Two For Gold won by a neck from Aso with the latter giving 6 lbs – Aso coming out a 5 lbs better horse than Two For Gold. Not an exceptional race but competitive enough and probable slight improvement on Two For Gold’s part in first time cheek pieces. Had looked crying out for them. In truth TFG often looks ungainly so I wouldn’t judge his round at Kelso too harshly. Aso also these days needs a bit of driving to show his form.

Both horses then go on to Kelso where Aso finishes 2 1/4 lengths in front of Two For Gold. This time (not a handicap) with Aso receiving 3 lbs. ie On Kelso form they were roughly the same horse. Therefore it can be seen there was only a 5 lb difference between the two horses from Warwick to Kelso.

Did Aso run to the same form both times, with Two For Gold improving again? Highly unlikely.
Did Two For Gold run the same both times and Aso 5 lbs worse at Kelso than Warwick? Possible but imo unlikely.
Somewhere between the two? Possible but unlikely.
Or were they both below form and if so by how much?
When the difference between the two horses from Warwick to Kelso was just 5 lbs… and taking in to account both didn’t have the best rounds of jumping… I personally think it is (at this stage) unlikely both (together) were much below their Warwick form at Kelso… But by a few pounds, yes.

Aso is not what he used to be (best OR 168) but is not rated at his best.
Aso’s official rating is 157.
Two For Gold’s 153.

Cloth Cap gave 4 lbs to Aso and beat him 7 1/2 lengths. ie On the bare form Cloth Cap is a 12 lbs better horse than Aso.
Cloth Cap gave 1 lb to Two For Gold and beat him a total of 10 1/4 lengths. ie On bare form Cloth Cap is a 12 lb better horse than Two For Gold.
157 + 12 = 169
153 + 12 = 165
… And Cloth Cap didn’t just win, he won comfortably, value for another couple of pounds?
… And yet Cloth Cap is imo wisely now rated a cautious 162.

How many lbs would you say the second and third from Kelso race were?

Going up from 136 to 148 after the “Hennessey”, and 148 to 162 after Kelso, so not only is he very well handicapped, he’s also improving fast (at least the way he’s been ridden from the front).

Am confused by the general conscensus, including on the ITV coverage, that the ground is ‘Good’. My interpretation of the times yesterday was ‘Good to Soft, Soft in Places’.

Aye but they probably watered again overnight to keep the RSPCA sweet.