2021 Grand National

With the field confirmed, thought I’d do the usual preview….

Bigger puzzle than usual this year, with real question marks over the ground, and only having went through them all again, did I realise there were so many of interest lurking in there……

Bristol De Mai
Extremely popular campaigner, who’s probably seen as a Haydock specialist on deep winter ground. Bit unfair on him, as he has performed very well elsewhere, and no question that he deserves to be top weight here. On the face of it though, this does seem an unusual target, but trainer’s seemed keen on sending him here for some time. Hefty weight to overcome then, but if allowed to bowl along in front, there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be pitching at the end, as he’s a fairly safe jumper. Big weight aside, my main concern would be that you could pick holes in a lot of his better recent runs, particularly his last Betfair Chase win, and I’d be interested to see how Clan Des Obeaux gets on in The Bowl in that respect. He’s probably one who’ll divide opinion. I really like him as a horse, and can see why they’re giving it a go, but I can see that weight stopping him. Should go well though.

Chris’s Dream
Best run of the season was his narrow defeat by The Storyteller at Down Royal, but flopped since then. His run in The Ryanair was very disappointing, for all that not many could have coped with Allaho that day. On overall achievements, I’d say he’s too high in the weights, and has possible stamina limitations. The main positives are that he’s in top hands, and for all he’s suffered for it, his win in The Troytown offers some hope that this will suit. He travelled very well for a long way in last years Gold Cup too, and decent jockey booking with Darragh O’Keefe, but just enough questions to answer for me.

Yala Enki
Loads to like about his campaign, from his close second at Cheltenham in November, to his big run in The Welsh National, and to the manner of his win at Taunton. He did fold tamely last time though, well beaten in the end, in The Cotswold, and got no further than the first in The Becher. I find him quite hard to weigh up here. Very capable of taking a hand, the ability is clearly there, but I just wonder if he’s the best handicapped horse in the race.

Ballyoptic
Looked to be a rock solid National contender after his run in The Scottish National three years back, but more miss than hit since then. Decent winner of The Swinley Chase last year, but his 20/21 campaign has been very poor. Was up for sale a few weeks back, which isn’t a great sign either. His record round here is also a concern, with two falls, and a midfield finish. The main positive for me is that the ground won’t be a big concern (wrongly seen as a mudlark), but he’s one of the easier ones for me to rule out.

Definitely Red
Admirable old campaigner who’s done connections proud over the last few years. There’s no doubt that his whole campaign has been built around a tilt at this, so his lacklustre displays this year could possibly be forgiven, but still, it’s a while since he ran a proper race of note. Ground should pose no fears, and at his absolute best, his mark isn’t an issue, but on recent form, he doesn’t look particularly well treated. He really is a very likeable type, but there has to be a chance that he was at his peak around two years ago.

Lakeview Lad
Another who’s been a real star for Connections, and his win in The Many Clouds in November was a real highlight. Obvious chance off the back of that, and go back two years, and he was finishing third in a hot renewal of The Ultima, which followed on from wins in The Rehearsal, and The Rowland Meyrick. He looked primed for a big run in this two years ago, after his Ultima run, but he never landed a blow, eventually pulling up. That win at Aintree is noteworthy, but his last two runs have been lifeless. He’s not coming here in the same form this time, and he’s also two pounds higher. He’s certainly not one I’d be in a mad rush to write off, but there’s enough concerns, and he’s reluctantly passed over.

Burrows Saint
Very impressive winner of The Irish National two years ago, a performance that promised a future outwith Handicaps. Not quite went to plan this season, looking slightly jaded, but much more like it last time, going down to Acapella Bourgeois in The Bobbyjo. There’s little doubt that that was merely a prep for this, and he’ll be spot on for this. He’s got plenty going for him, top yard, fair mark, good prep, no stamina concerns, and the drying ground will be of no concern. Major player.

Magic Of Light
Usually reliable mare, who finished runner up to Tiger Roll two years ago. Great performance considering the fairly significant jumping errors, which she’ll have to cut out this time around. Ground offers no concerns, and though strictly a few pounds wrong, that wouldn’t worry me too much. Her run last time wasn’t great, and though over two and a half, I expected more. Great season from her before that run, and I’d prefer to judge her on that. Her season will be geared around this, and she should go well again.

Acapella Bourgeois
Another Mullins runner, who’s been fairly consistent over the last year and a half. He’s followed the same path the last twelve months, chase home Al Boum Photo at Tramore, followed by solid effort in The Thyestes, followed by running The Bobbyjo. Trainer is a master, and this looks a focussed approach by him to get Acapella ready for Aintree. I’ve seen him labelled a mudlark before, but that isn’t the case, and he’s versatile groundwise. Looks primed for a big run, and he looks a fair price.

Talkischeap
He looked a really interesting one when the entries came out, and following an encouraging run in a Jumpers Bumper, he looked ideal for Kempton or Cheltenham en route here. He went to Kempton, but merely flattered to deceive. In hindsight though, he went from 14’s on the Monday, to 40’s on the day, so perhaps that race wasn’t the plan. Winner of The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown two years back, but though he hasn’t done too much since, he’ll come here ten pounds higher. He’s also five pounds wrong here. In his favour is that he’ll love the conditions, and with trainer not being a big fan of the race, if he does line up, he must give the horse half a chance. I could give him a chance of being there at the end, despite a few negatives, and one of the more interesting outsiders.

Tout Est Permis
It’s easy to write him off, having jumped poorly last time before falling, and him coming here off the back of fifteen race losing streak, but I think a case can be made for him. He burst on to the scene with a very impressive win in the 2018 Troytown, before hosing up in The Grade 2 Horse and Jockey. A future with further Graded success surely loomed, but it just hasn’t happened. It’s hard to figure out exactly why. The hussle and bustle of a big field handicap won’t faze him, he’s been a regular in big field events like this ever since, and his third to Sire Du Berlais and The Storyteller in The Pertemps last year was a good effort. I was also impressed with how close he got to The Storyteller at Punchestown and Down Royal earlier in the season. No ground concerns either. For a top trainer who doesn’t have too many runners in this, then he’s an interesting outsider, providing he cuts out the errors.

Anibale Fly
Placed in the last two renewals, and also made the frame in two Gold Cups. Further to that, he’ll come here off 9lbs lower than 2019, and that’s enough to give him a second look. After a very poor 19/20, where he never beat a rival over fences, he showed a lot more zest over hurdles, which was clearly a prep for the doomed 2020 race. That gives hope that he isn’t “gone”, and was merely being given a shrewd prep. Supporters will be concerned with his low key return in The Bobbyjo, but he’s very well treated, he’ll act on the going, and his 2017 Paddy Power win, not to mention his two efforts at Aintree, suggest he’s more than capable of taking a hand.

Mister Malarky
Excellent win in The Silver Cup at Ascot in December, and there wasn’t much wrong with his effort at Kempton last time. A Clondaw Castle win in The Bowl, would certainly boost that form. Splitting those runs though, was a less impressive effort in The Skybet Chase, and although a very good horse on his day, it’s hard to predict when that day will be, and I find his profile a bit patchy. Trainer has had a difficult season, but Jonjo O’Neil is a positive jockey booking. I can see why he might appeal, but he’s not for me.

Kimberlite Candy
Seen sparingly, with just half a dozen runs over the last two years. Really advertised his claims for this, not only with two big runs in The Becher, but also a very impressive win in last years Classic Chase at Warwick. It’s that run I really look to, and as impressive as he was, there still looked more to come. His lifeless run at Fairyhouse is a concern, and in hindsight, I’m surprised he wasn’t closer in that race, but that’s possibly being overly critical. If looking for a proper concern, then maybe he’s wanting it softer, but on the whole, he’s a fairly solid contender.

Any Second Now
He’s stood out from Day One as a very smart prospect, coming through the ranks nicely. Finally arrived on the scene properly with his win two years ago in The Kim Muir, confirming that he was definitely a National Horse. If he had more time, I could easily see him step out of Handicap company permanently, adding to the Grade 2, and Grade 3 Chases he’s already collected. He’s been given the perfect prep here, and his win last time in The Webster Cup, was highly impressive. He’s been given a similar prep by his trainer, to 2000 Winner Papillon, and Seabass, third in 2012. I’ve wanted to see him in this for some time, and he looks perfect for it. Not raced on a faster surface too often, but there doesn’t appear to be any concerns on that front. My main concern would be his jumping. He’s certainly not flawless by any stretch, and the first few fences are going to be absolutely vital. Plenty to like though, and a major player.

Balko Des Flos
Has won a Galway Plate and Ryanair in the past, but that Ryanair win three years ago, was the last time he got his head in front. Has been mainly running in small field Graded Events, with not much success. His best effort in recent times was his effort in The Savills Chase, where he wasn’t disgraced. Sold recently though by Gigginstown, and more than one online report stated that he looked unsound. I can’t comment on that aspect, but it’s enough to dampen enthusiasm. I thought that The Topham was a realistic target, but he’s been bought as a National horse. Certainly thrown in on his best form, but there’s enough to be wary of.

Alpha Des Obeaux
Only got as far as The Chair in this three years ago, but has since ran with credit in The Becher. His last run was in The Cross Country, where understandably, Tiger Roll grabbed the headlines, but his run is worth another look. I thought he ran a sound enough trial for this, and he travelled noticeably well. His best days may well be behind him, and his runs earlier in the season weren’t great, but as a result, he looks on a decent mark of 152. It’s probably hard to make a case for him winning, but Jody McGarvey gets the gig, and he’s fresh from the biggest day of his career on Sunday, landing two Grade 1’s, so he’s not dismissed out of hand, and at a fair old price, he’s an interesting outsider.

Ok Corral
Finally got his big win, when landing last years Skybet, but it’s clear that things haven’t been straightforward for him, and not seen again until last months Ultima, which did not go well. His jumping looked short of what’s required here, and he also finished lame. Trainers record in this isn’t great, and overall he just gives the impression of having had a seriously interrupted prep. On the positive side, he’s always looked a National horse, and his run in The Skybet was confirmation of that, and he’ll also have the assistance of Derek O’Connor in the saddle, but on balance, I’d have to pass him over.

Takingrisks
Showed his suitability for this when winning a good ground Scottish National two years back, and added a Rehearsal Chase the next season, and that’s enough to take him seriously here. There were certainly signs over the last 12 months that he was regressive, but his run in The Rehearsal put him spot on for The Skybet in January, where he really dug out the win. He’s run off 150 once before, and he flopped badly, but he’s probably worth forgiving. It’s questionable whether he’ll be quite good enough to land this, but that win at Ayr suggests he can be competitive.

Shattered Love
Very good on her day, as seen when winning at Cheltenham three years back. She hasn’t necessarily fulfilled that promise since, but she’s continuing to run to an acceptable standard, and on faster ground, I thought she ran a more than acceptable trial for this in The Mares Chase. She’s perhaps not the easiest to predict, but she’s had an interesting prep. I don’t think there’s too many negatives with her, and my main concern would be her run in The Irish National two years back, where the faster ground, and big field, hardly brought out the best in her. Still, it’s interesting that Davy Russell chose her that day, from all his options, and the fact their giving her another crack makes her of interest, off what could be a fair mark, and an outsider to consider.

Jett
Looked to be an ideal purchase for the Waley-Cohen’s last year, having performed very well in top company the last few years, running very decent races in The Savills Chase, and Irish Gold Cups of 19/20. Also going back to 2019, he had several of these behind him in The Daily Star Chase, and he also took care of The Storyteller in that years Devenish. Quite simply though, from the moment he jumped off in this season’s Galway Plate, he’s appeared to have gone backwards. He will have Sam Waley-Cohen up, and although it tends to get slightly overplayed, his record over the fences can’t be ignored. He’s also from a top yard, and his poor runs so far, have seen him slip to an attractive mark. It’s a straightforward scenario with him. If his runs this year are a true reflection of where he’s currently at, then he has no chance. However, if he’s been run this season, solely with this in mind, and it’s not a big stretch of the imagination that he has, then he has a live chance. Impossible to know though.

Lord Du Mesnil
Seemed to have went off the boil before his win in The National Trial at Haydock, a win where he showed a good attitude. No stamina concerns either, going by his effort in last years NH Chase. As mentioned though, his season has been littered with lesser efforts. He’s one who may be inconvenienced by the ground, and though his win at Haydock means he merits respect, he’s not one for my shortlist.

Potters Corner
Welsh National winner, who if he shows up A1, then has to be taken very seriously. I was very impressed with him at Chepstow, and he had Aintree written all over him. He didn’t get the chance last year obviously, which is a shame, as he’s not had an easy time of it this year. His last run at Exeter, albeit over hurdles was woeful, and he then had a minor setback which ruled him out of Cheltenham. If over that, then a quick look at his run at Cheltenham in November shows that he’s a player here. The way he ran on that days suggests every yard of this will suit. Can surely make an impression here if he’s in good nick, with the main negative being his less than ideal prep.

Class Conti
Another Willie Mullins runner, so in good hands. He’d never really struck me as National horse, even after his second in last years Thyestes, and this seemed to be confirmed with another disappointing performance in this season’s Paddy Power. Different story though since the turn of the year, confirming the promise of that Thyestes run with another good show in this years renewal, before catching the eye in The Leinster National. He obviously has to improve again, but there’s encouraging signs, and considering connections, he can’t be confidently ruled out.

Milan Native
Looked ideal National material after landing last season’s Kim Muir, before edging out Discorama in a tight finish early season. In his next run, he ran with a great deal of credit against subsequent Gold Cup hero, Minella Indo. All the signs were there, but wheels have came off since, having never landed a blow in three runs since. The ability is clearly there, not to mention that “the yard” have focussed solely on this target since the autumn, and the booking of Jamie Codd is also a plus, but the recent form is enough to cause concern.

Discorama
Wins rarely, and hasn’t got his head in front since November 2018, but that doesn’t tell the full story. There are plenty of respectable efforts since then, most notably three big efforts at The Cheltenham Festival, and quite simply, he looks a horse who’s kept for the big occasion. His last run, at Cheltenham in November, was a little flat, but beforehand, his tight finish with Milan Native suggested all was well. The bare form suggests he has his work cut out, and he does have the look of a “bridesmaid” horse, but he’s been kept for this all season, and he’s very much respected. Recent market support is very encouraging, and if he takes to this, I’d have him down as an each way banker.

Vieux Lion Rouge
There’s not much to say about him, that’s not already been said. He’s jumped more National Fences successfully, than any other horse in history, and he just loves the place. He’s won two Bechers, and been runner up in another, to go with his four completions in this. It just seems that the trip here stretches him, which is a real shame, as otherwise, he’s impossible to be too negative about. Would be an incredibly popular winner, but it just seems unlikely that he’ll find the extra reserves of stamina on his fifth attempt.

Cloth Cap
Short priced favourite, and not difficult to see why. He showed his suitability for this with a big run in the 2019 Scottish National, before a rather subdued 19/20. What a difference a year makes though, and the faster going in this years Ladbroke Trophy, saw an incredibly impressive performance from him. It really was a tremendous run, and he backed this up with a bloodless win in The Premier Chase at Kelso. He’s a stone “well in”, and he represents a yard who’ve had a much better time of it this year themselves. His jumping in his last two runs has also impressed, and the ground offers no worries here. The negatives? It’s hard to find any, other than the price obviously, but that’s not the horses concern. There’s also the concern that he might not get his way out in front, but given what we’ve seen this year, it’s the others who should be worried on that front.At an absolute push, you could say that his win at Kelso has been a little overrated, considering those in behind, but even taking it just visually, it looked a massive run, and he’s just bloody hard to pick holes in. Obviously a big, big player.

Cabaret Queen
Former Munster National winner, where she was highly impressive, for all she was chucked in. Confirmed her suitability for the big handicaps last year, with a good third in The Galway Plate, before an all out effort to land The Kerry National. That suggested that she has a live chance of landing a third “National” here, but subsequent runs have been less encouraging, and her effort in The Mares Chase last time was dismal. Looks to have her work cut out off this mark, but the fact they’re sending her here, after that effort at Cheltenham offers a small slice of hope for those taking a chance with her.

Minellacelebration
Overall record at Aintree is good, but less so over the National Fences, never striking a blow in the 2019 Becher, before jockey lost an iron in this seasons renewal. His bad luck continued next time, when brought down at Sandown. My main concern would be his run last time at Kempton, it wasn’t great, but given a break since, and he can go well fresh. His runs last year though, back here in The Veterans, and in The Summer Cup at Uttoxeter, do offer some encouragement though, and guaranteed to go on the ground, so a case can be made for a big run, and one of the more interesting outsiders, for all its hard to envisage a win.

Canelo
Couldn’t have been more impressive in The Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, and this continued his good season, having won at Aintree, albeit a tad fortunate. He’s a reliable, likeable type, but given his last two runs, there would have to be stamina doubts, and he doesn’t look like one of JP’s leading lights here.

The Long Mile
Not really seen as an obvious National type previously, operating mainly at trips well short of this, but qualified for this courtesy of his third in The Bobbyjo. That’s a race though where I’m always sceptical of the form, given its place in the calendar. There’s little doubt that he could’ve got closer that day, but there’s a real chance he was ridden for 3rd/4th. That actually offers some encouragement, as connections obviously feel that this is the race for him. Very impressive in The Tim Duggan, and he’s not without a chance, but there are obvious stamina concerns, and he’s got the dreaded 7yo stat to overcome. Unlikely, but could run well without quite getting there.

Give Me A Copper
Finally got his big win, landing The Badger Ales at Wincanton in 2019, but certainly a mixed bag since. Shaped really well behind Rocky’s Treasure at Doncaster earlier in the season, but that race doesn’t read so well now, and on his return to Doncaster in The Skybet, he ran a shocker. He’s always shaped as if he had a major prize in him, but that last run is hard to excuse. The ability is there, but he strikes me as one who just might not take to it.

Farclas
Has been on my radar for the big spring prizes all season. Although he’s yet to win this season, he’s got several good runs in the bag, and having previously won The Triumph, it’s pretty evident, having missed a year and a half, that he retains all his ability. Worth noting that he reeled of a three timer before his setback. From top yard, and has the advantage of Jack Kennedy aboard. The main negative would be that 7yo stat, and there is a real question mark over stamina, but he’s clearly got a live chance here.

Minella Times
Bar a rather lacklustre display at the Dublin Racing Festival, he’s a fairly dependable sort, and since landing The Southampton Plate at Listowel, his subsequent efforts at Leopardstown, runner up on both occasions, have a solid look to them. Hails from the De Bromhead yard, and will have Rachel Blackmore aboard, and telling that they much preferred to take their chances here, rather than Fairyhouse. He’s not one to find too many negatives with, and bar (very) slight reservations over the trip, he’s got an awful lot going for him, and he’s almost certainly well handicapped. Got to be taken very seriously.

Sub Lieutenant
Former Gigginstown horse, who looked ideal National material two years, when a running on second in The Topham. Hardly disgraced since then, and he was one of the bigger surprises amongst Gigginstowns annual cull. Now with the less high profile Georgie Howell, but has been a real credit to new connections, and his big race pilot Tabitha Worsley, who’s already won over the fences, seems to be getting a good tune out of him. His run at Ascot in December suggested that this would be ideal for him, but his run there last time, wasn’t quite as eyecatching. Can see him plugging on at the end, but surely a surprise if he’s involved in the shake up.

Hogans Heights
Bit of a surprise winner of The Grand Sefton in 2019, and he looked to deserve his chance last year off the back of that. He hasn’t impressed me though this year, though having campaigned predominantly over hurdles since his big win, it’s perhaps better to judge him solely on his Cross Country effort. He never threatened, but a decent enough prep in its own right. It’s perhaps been a very careful prep for him, and he certainly did impress in The Grand Sefton, but he’s yet to prove he’s up to this mark. I’d expect a respectable effort from him, but I’d be a little surprised if he featured.

Double Shuffle
Seems to have been around for an age, and it’s four years since he last ran in this, when he was down the field, eventually pulling up. Similar story when he tackled The Topham, though he did finish in his own time. Took advantage of a slipping mark at Kempton earlier in the year, however he came up short there next time off of his revised mark. Nice horse on his day, but this is surely beyond him.

Ami Desbois
Can see why connections want to give this a try, shaping really well at Doncaster last time, having previously found only the well handicapped Double Shuffle too good at Kempton. It’s way over three years since he won though, and that was a two runner affair. This is a million miles from that, and it’s hard to see him landing a blow here.

Blaklion
Becher Chase Winner, who also ran a big race in the 2017 National, where he was arguably kicked for home too soon, before eventually finishing fourth. A real slog in the mud at Haydock in 2018 appeared to knock the stuffing out of him, and he’s never looked the same horse since. He’s only ran seven times since exiting at the first in this three years ago, and hasn’t achieved much. Slight glimmers of hope at Ascot and Newcastle, where he looked dangerous for part of the race, travelling well, but in all reality, his best days look behind him, and he’s readily passed over.

Reserves

Some Neck
Won over the Cross Country Course at Cheltenham this year, showing good attitude, and ran a respectable race over the same course last month. Mixed bag most of his career, but this has been a decent season for him, looking as good as he’s ever been. He’s probably well short of this on the balance of his overall form, but he looks to have had an interesting prep for this, mixing Hurdles and Cross Country races, and no surprise to see him outrun his odds if he gets the opportunity.

Secret Reprieve
Welsh National hero, who really did impress with the manner of the win that day. Not completely hammered for it either, and though the rise in the weights demands more, he’d certainly earned his place in the line up. Trainer would rather have waited a year, but owners were keen to go. I’m not 100% buying that from the trainer, and I’m sure he very much fancies his chances, given the manner of that win at Chepstow. There are a few negatives, not least his inexperience as a 7yo, and in hindsight, perhaps not the best Welsh National I’ve seen, but so many positives. Feather weight, probably ahead of the handicapper, I like the trainers downbeat opinion, trip should pose no issues, and connections know exactly what’s required here. Looks a big danger to all if he scraped in.

Kauto Riko
Wouldn’t have been the most obvious contender at the start of the season, but the manner of his run in The BetVictor Gold Cup, hinted that a marathon trip may suit. By all accounts this has been the plan all year, and didn’t look a forlorn hope if he got in, for all he’s got to improve.

Fagan
A real shame that he’s struggling to make it, as he looked to have a squeak. He looked a potential National horse with Gordon Elliot a few years back, but having pulled up in The Scottish National two years back, he’s clearly had issues, and he ended up with Alex Hales. Slow burner for the new yard, but it finally clicked at Newbury, where the manner of his win suggested he was back near to his best. Unlikely to run now, and maybe one to consider for Ayr or Sandown.

I found Cloth Cap the hardest to gauge. As mentioned, so hard to find faults, and I can actually see him sauntering him home, but it’s always a challenge to find one to beat such a hot favourite, and I’ve given it a bash.

I’ve been beating the drum on here for Any Second Now for over four years now, and for all it could be suggested that it’s the heart ruling the head, looking at it from an impartial point of view (or as much as I can do), I just seen him as having a huge chance. First few fences crucial for him.

I could change my mind on the rest every five minutes, but for all it’s futile, I’ve did a first six.

I think Discorama is rock solid, and can’t see him out the places, while the booking of Patrick Mullins, I see as a big positive for Burrows Saint.

Of the bigger priced runners, the Gigginstown trio of Farclas, Shattered Love, and Tout Est Permis, along with Talkischeap look primed for bigger runs than their odds suggest.

1. Any Second Now
2. Discorama
3. Burrows Saint
4. Cloth Cap
5. Tout Est Permis
6. Shattered Love

Thanks Tatling, though I bet Spotlight uses spellcheck, frantically editing here lol

Many thanks all, glad you enjoyed it.

Thanks Jack

Still wanting to add to these….

Any Second Now 32’s
Sub Lieutenant 330’s
The Long Mile 530’s

Talkischeap I bet a while back, and laid most of, though he will pay for my bets if he wins, as there was a sliver left.

Wanting to bet Discorama, but I’m just going to go with Tout Est Permis. Can get 125’s EW just now, but maybe one for the bigger exchange prices tomorrow.