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Three posts in succession, sorry about breaking that ages-old forum rule. Anyway.
Bit of fun, who will be top weight on 12th Feb, and who will be allocated bottom weight?
Presume Bristol de Mai likely to get 11-12 and they’ll work down from that?
Lowest-rated? Suspect Morney Wing needs to win another good handicap to go up enough to get anywhere near getting in (Charlie Mann loves a GN outsider), and Lieutenant Colonel has to be the early 1000/1 shot with absolutely no chance of winning.
No idea how they’ll rate Van Gogh De Granit. He’ll have to run here to get a mark, won’t he?
Finally, one last comment. Great to see Ziga Boy entered. Not been seen since defending the Great Yorkshire two years ago this weekend. Will be great to see him back on a racecourse soon.
Tea For Two is a very eyecatching entry for me.
Missed Approach still my #1, along with….
Auvergnat
Black Corton
General Principle
PairofbrowneyesA few disappointing absentees, indeed the only shortlisters who made it were…
Traffic Fluide
Ultragold
Yala EnkiI’ll have a proper look when I get in tonight and start whittling out those who haven’t had a run (preferably in a steeplechase) between September and December and I’m sorry, but i need my national horses 8 or older.
The rest of the criteria can’t be applied until late March…
Up For Review gets his entry and is my main fancy. Think he will gallop and stay- my main concern is that he’s not quick through the air and also doesn’t look as nimble a faller-dodger as some might be.
Also interested in Joe Farrell though he needs a run this season to qualify. Probably waiting for a bit of ease in the ground for his glass legs.
Ultragold just loves it here…might have to back him too.
Green, how could I forget Up For Review, maybe have to do a proper new shortlist when I get home lol
Don’t forget, as of last year, a horse has to have run in a race over fences earlier in the same season in order to be allowed to run in the National.
Traffic Fluide for me still at this point really keen on him last year but didn’t qualify in time.
Disappointed there is no Relentless Dreamer unless I’m missing something and no Houblon but probably wise.Mike, do you mean Ultragold won’t run or won’t stay?
Both possible but remember he was originally bought by Tizzard to be a 3 miler. His half brother Braqueur d’Or came a respectable 4th in the Hennessy and his damsire got Gloria Victis, First Gold and Djeddah all of whom won over 3 miles. His sire’s top rated progeny is Clan des Obeaux.He wont stay 4 miles 3. Look at his career, always going back to 2 and a half miles with the odd run at 3 miles. Now they are having a go as he is 11 and nothing to lose. Its Always Waining all over again.
Mike007 the lowest rated last year was 142.
And with regards to Ultragold to compare his attempt at the National to that of Always Waining is in my opinion a little unfair. Always Waining never got his ground when he finally lined up in the big one. Indeed the year he did take his chance you could argue the ground was considerably slower than he’d have preferred. Would he have come close in 2011 when conditions were perfect for him? We’ll never know, but the way he won the Topham that year suggests to me 2, 5 wasn’t where his line was drawn. It’s still one of the biggest what ifs in recent National history for me and the fact he only missed out by one still grinds me today.
I prefer to compare Ultragolds impending crack at the trip to Double Ross a couple years ago. He got his ground and had a natural affinity with the course. He found himself well in contention jumping the canal second time round and looked like he was still going well when his saddle slipped. Not the first name that springs to mind when thinking of marathon specialists, but things went his way and he stayed way beyond where he was expected.
Ultragold crucially goes on any ground and has shown an aptitude to be competitive at trips beyond his apparent preferred distance. Will he stay 4, 3? Logic suggests not, but he’s got plenty going for him ahead of his rightful bite of the cherry. He has the Aintree factor, he’ll go on any ground, is on a mark he can be competitive off and is in good form (both at and away from Aintree).
He isn’t my number one choice. In fact he’s probably third of my current three, but as outsider’s go I think he is towards the bottom of the list of horses I’d be writing off immediately.
hi peter h, you say “Will he stay 4, 3? Logic suggests not, but he’s got plenty going for him”.
If the logic is he wont stay then he has nothing going for him to be honest. I understand the horses for courses argument but I am almost certain he wont be in the money over this trip unless there’s carnage on the course with a handful of finishers. To me he is an easy one to tick off for this particular test.
By all means those who want to keep the faith then up to you. But you’ll know in April what I was on about.
Colin Tizzard quote after his Topham win…
“We talked about going for the National this year, but we thought he doesn’t really stay that far.”
How much proof do you need.
Diamond Geezer, the qualifications are top 4 in a chase over 2 miles 7.5 furlongs or longer by second scratching that’s 19 March and if same as last year they have up to the five day declaration stage to have ran in a chase, that’s April 1st and their OR must be 125 or better.
A quick look and I’m fancying (at this moment)
Auvergnat
Calett Mad
Cogry (probably needs to raise his OR to make final field.)
Elegant Escape (a lot depends on his Gold Cup run and if they still fancy the National/ but real chance if they do)
Ramses De Teillee
Rock The Kasbah
Royal Vacation
Singlefarmpayment
Walk In The Mill
Yala EnkiYou've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.
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