2019 Grand National

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This topic contains 268 replies, has 52 voices, and was last updated by steeplechasing steeplechasing 10 minutes ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 91 through 105 (of 269 total)
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  • #1390646

    potato
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    • Total Posts 366

    There is zero chance that Elegant Escape will run in the national this season.

    He has followed an almost identical path to the gold cup that Native River had in his first gold cup season when 3rd.

    Ladbrokes Trophy/Welsh National will quite possibly run in the denman chase at Newbury in February then the gold cup.

    You quite simply do not risk a potential gold cup winner by running him in the national. That could happen later in his career as a 10 or 11yo though.

    This horse is extremely well thought of by Tizzard and rightly so, you only have to see the way the team were celebrating after winning the welsh national what they think of him.

    Although at this stage he is the outsider of the 3 tizzard gold cup horses according to the betting I believe that Tizzatd knows he is in fact the number 1 and I fully.expect.the gold cup betting on the day to reflect that especially if he has won the denman chase prior to running in the gold cup which is likely. Likely to go off 9/2 for the gold cup on the day imo.

    #1390804
    peter .h
    peter .h
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    • Total Posts 1114

    A big run from Dell Arca at Haydock off top weight over 3, 3 leaves David Pipe, Tisdall and Drew with a very real (if slightly envious) conundrum. Four very live National chances in Vieux Lion Rouge, Un Temps Pour Tout, Drakondlike and now Dell Arca. Can’t imagine them sending all of them? Un Temps Pour Tout is one I’d really like to see line up as I reckon he’d have been a graded horse if he didn’t have so many setbacks. This race screams his name.

    #1390897
    MarkTT
    MarkTT
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    • Total Posts 2557

    Native River won the Ladbroke and his Welsh National posting better ratings than Elegant Escape
    He’s now a Gold Cup winner with the services of the champion jockey, so I’ll be utterly stunned if Elegant Escape lines up at shorter odds

    #1390904

    potato
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    • Total Posts 366

    Marktt

    Native River beat Raz De Maree by 1 3/4 lengths giving him 19lb in welsh national.

    Elegant Escape beat Raz de Maree by 24 1/4 lengths giving him a 14lb in welsh.national.

    Both were very impressive winners of the race and both could have won by further had they been asked to do so.

    Native River won ladbrokes off 155,.Elegant escape was 2nd off 155.

    Native had been given over 5 weeks to get over his first run of season, EE given just 29 days to recover from.1st run back and almost certainly bounced.

    Very similar form, I wouldn’t like to say which one was better, both excellent.

    EE.is a fast developer, after he wins the denman chase in Feb (grade 2, straightforward task) then he will shorten more.and I would be almost certain that tizzards know EE is there.number 1 now.

    Last years.gold cup.was a real battle between might bite and NR and they have had 4 runs in total since and neither has got close to winning. Might Bite definitely.gone NR can have excuses.made for.him but more likely than not.left a little.something in that fuel last year and will never again be quite as good.

    We are not even close to.seeing how.good EE is yet.

    Hardly something to BE UTTERLY STUNNED ABOUT if EE goes off shorter than.nat8ve river on.the day imo. Bizarre comment ;-) :unsure:

    #1390909
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 24866

    Native River beat Raz De Maree by 1 3/4 lengths giving him 19lb in welsh national.

    Elegant Escape beat Raz de Maree by 24 1/4 lengths giving him a 14lb in welsh.national.

    Age has finally caught up with Raz De Maree, Potato.
    The 2017 winner/2016 runner-up was a long long way below that level of form in 2018.
    To believe RDM anything like to the same rating is crazy.

    Conditional Jockeys claim for the reason they’re generally that claim inferior to established jockeys, so taking claims out of the equation:

    Third placed Yala Enki finished 19 lengths in front of Raz De Maree, giving the previous National winner 12 lbs (+ jockeys claim).

    Native River finished 1 3/4 lenths in front of Raz De Maree, giving 16 lbs (+ jockeys claim).

    Therefore, if believing Raz De Maree ran anything like the same form, then you must believe Yala Enki is a far superior horse to Native River? :wacko:

    This Raz De Maree form line is in truth worth nothing.

    value is everything
    #1390914
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 24866

    You en arf looking through rose coloured specs, Potato.

    Native River won ladbrokes off 155,.Elegant escape was 2nd off 155.

    Yes, Native River won the Ladbroke/Hennessey off 155 in which Elegant Escape was second off the same 155. But EE was running at Newbury on that 155 because of the Sandown penalty.

    Native Ruler won the Welsh National off the same 155.
    Without that penalty Elegant Escape won his Welsh National off 151.

    In truth, Native River put up a better performance than Elegant Escape at both Newbury and Chepstow.

    Native River progressed again when under 3 lengths 3rd despite the goodish ground (putting less emphasis on stamina than suits) 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup, before improving again the following year to win the Blue Riband on (stamina sapping) soft going.

    Elegant Escape may or may not continue to improve, but if doing so not only does he need to do so at an even faster rate than his stable companion, but he too is less likely to get the ideal stamina test in mid-March.

    Elegant Escape may improve enough to place in a Gold Cup given advantageous circumstances (needs a lot more to actually win it) but it’ll be a shame if not allowed his chance in the race which is likely to suit at his prime (not when on the downgrade)… That race being the Grand National. If he were an intended runner would be favourite… and rightly so. But unfortunately he’s unlikely to get the opportunity.

    value is everything
    #1390916
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 24866

    Last years.gold cup.was a real battle between might bite and NR and they have had 4 runs in total since and neither has got close to winning. Might Bite definitely.gone NR can have excuses.made for.him but more likely than not.left a little.something in that fuel last year and will never again be quite as good.

    Your meanderings don’t make sense.
    No, they haven’t had “4 runs”.
    And one did go more than “close”.
    That “real battle” can not be made an excuse because less than a month later Might Bite went on to Aintree. Beating subsequent Betfair Chase winner 7 lengths in to second, with subsequent King George winner a further 3 1/4 lengths in to third. Form that is just as good if not better than Cheltenham.

    I agree, Native River has had excuses; unsuited by less tests of stamina and/or unable/not allowed to front run and/or Kempton being right-handed.

    As for Might Bite: Gone from travelling well to nothing in strides in both starts this term. Said to have burst a blood vessel on Boxing Day. Whether that is true or not; suspect there’s a physical or mental reason and I too doubt Might Bite will ever be the same. Never found a great deal off the bridle and that trait has got much worse this season.

    value is everything
    #1390923
    Red Rum 77
    Red Rum 77
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    • Total Posts 908

    In 2015, I thought that Many Clouds the eventual winner of this race in that year was destined to be in the Gold Cup. That I ignored him as a Grand National candidate. It was only as he remained in after a “disapppointing” run in the Gold Cup that I thought of him as a strong candidate and backed him accordingly.

    No disrespect to Elegant Escape he’s young and still improving but I’d don’t see him beating the likes of Clan Des Obeaux who showed class in winning the King George VI chase .

    #1391426

    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    There are three I like for this just now, Valtor, Lake View Lad + Beware The Bear.

    They are all nice prices, and I am most tempted by Lake View Lad, so I have made him my first bet at 33-1 each way for 5 places.

    #1391548
    peter .h
    peter .h
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    • Total Posts 1114

    Houblon Des Obeaux showed his true wellbeing today and entry permitting once again becomes one of my main hopes. Hopefully he’ll be put up enough to get in without being completely weighted out of it. I’ve pretty much finalized my list… For now!

    Houblon Des Obeaux
    Rathvinden
    Traffic Fluide
    Ultragold
    Un Temps Pour Tout
    Yala Enki

    Need to see Rathvinden get a run. I don’t believe in soft campaigns for the National. Unless Mullins can get several runs in him before the end of March I’ll likely abandon him. Same can be said for Un Temps Pour Tout who I thought ran encouragingly enough over hurdles, but hasn’t been seen since. If Pipe can get him out a few more times too, that would be pretty swell.

    #1391980

    Autumnal
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    • Total Posts 202

    Rathvinden must have a chance Peter, I’d love to see him out soon.

    I completely agree with the positive reaction to Noble Endeavor after The Becher Chase, and I can’t give up on Don Poli either. 50/1 seems fair enough to me. In the same ownership as Noble Endeavour is Mala Beach, he is interesting at the same price.

    The horse I nearly bet is Saturnas at 40-1, I think he would have a great chance, looking at his Listowel run.

    #1392050
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14668

    No Gold Cup entry for Edwulf, and though on a high enough mark, I just wonder if this is the plan.

    I’d be interested if they could get a few lbs shaved off.

    #1392063

    atthepost
    Participant
    • Total Posts 198

    I am mad keen on Noble Endeavour & Don Poli for this.

    I have LOADS multiple EW bets With both them at 50s with bet 365. They both Loved their schooling day out in the Beecher. GE is a master and they will be both be primed for April. The handicapper knows the score- Noble endeavour 60 lengths back after over a year out and the HC left him on the same mark! Both go on soft ground which is also a plus. GE knows Tiger roll is up against it off 159.

    I will continue backing them all in EW MULTI’s

    #1392314
    peter .h
    peter .h
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    • Total Posts 1114

    Ultragold with another encouraging run over 3, 5 today. Looked like he stayed it fine, finishing behind better handicapped rivals. Be interesting to see if he maintains his mark because he’s clearly capable of being competitive off his current mark and between his affinity for the course and his improved stamina he’s clearly one to take very seriously. Will crucially go on any ground, too.

    #1393061
    peter .h
    peter .h
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    • Total Posts 1114

    Wakanda now needs to be seriously considered after today’s gutsy win. Has been running well and or winning all the right races over the last 2/3 seasons and I can’t see him being weighted out of it after today. Only real concern is his slightly unconvincing spring record.

    Nevertheless he makes my shortlist.

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