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My bets have ended up like this…
Rathvinden 20-1 ew 4 places
Walk In The Mill 28-1 or bigger ew 5 places
General Principle 33-1 or bigger ew 6 places
Noble Endeavor 50-1 or bigger ew 6 places
Vintage Clouds 50-1 ew 5 places
Dounikos 28-1 or bigger ew 5 places
Valseur Lido 80-1 ew 5 placesis the winner here?
I ended up with:
Rathvinden 9/1
Dounikos 28/1 EW
Ultragold 66/1 EWAnd added Tiger Roll at 5/1 this morning (money back if he finishes in the top 4).
Good luck all! I think the Irish will dominate.
Can’t get anibales flys last run out of my head and he’s surely good for an each way (as much as I dislike ew bets)
I can see rock the Kasbah going well under a typical positive Johnson ride
Tiger roll is a true star but just too short
Well the horses that may as well stay in the stables are:
Jury Duty 14s
Pleasant Company 14s
Singlefarmpayment e/w 6 places 66-1(the Aintree effect?)Free bet Rathvinden 8s
However I would happily see all of the above finish unplaced if Lake View Lad or One for Arthur could win for my local trainers Alexander or Russell. Plus I’ll be cheering on Tea for Two for the vastly underrated Lizzie Kelly, Step Back for the Bradstocks and Scotland’s Captain Redbeard.
Good luck everyone and here’s hoping it’s a classic National with plenty of thrills and spills, an exciting finish and everyone coming back safe and sound.
Roll on 5-15.
Have fallen on
Lake view lad and jury duty
Already had tiger roll at 6-1 after cheltenham
Good luck all who have a go
@Lemons68
Thanks Mark, and good luck with your bets, especially that Rathvinden bet.Regarding Don Poli..Who is this Darren Yates?? He must have a lot of money to waste
I like to try an green up.
My primary fancy is Ramses and i would have no doubth about his stamina. He has really went to the line in his marathons.
i laid Tiger roll at 4s antipost for a large amount….who would even bet in those circumstances?? I will back him i suppose now but not sure what exactly im doing here.
ive also backed tea for two, blow by blow and ballyoptic and ultragold not because i fancied them but only because i expect price to shorten a little.
i also have joe farrell. Overall i realise i have a bias towards under 11 stone and more proven stayers. That was a strategy that worked 10 years ago sadly
Overall, not confident.
SHL
It’s a 2 horse race and Gordon Elliot trains both of them.
I expect DOUNIKOS to win but have also backed JURY DUTY just in case.
Dounikos is the absolutely perfect trends based selection and Jury Duty is the 2nd best trends horse
My 2 long term ante posts, Missed Approach and Traffic Fluide, didn’t make it. I added
Jury Duty last month at 33s and topped up the other day at 22.24/1Had a mad flurry in the early hours, mostly with Bet365 owing to their e/w special, so
this is my lot ……….Go Conquer 50/1 (beat Monbeg River in the Skybet Chase, and that one had
one was closely tied with the ill-fated Forest Des Aigles, who was running a blinder in
the Topham yesterday before that last fence tragedy.Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 (sound round here, apparently in great fettle, he
just needs to save that bit for after the last 2. He’s a decent shout for a place)Folsum Blue 80/1 (so unlucky in the Irish National last year, and although
he’s not found his form since then, if he did bounce back he’d have a shout. Distance no
problem)Valtor 100/1, Warriors Tale 100/1, Mala Beach 80/1, Valseur Lido 100/1 (no, I don’t know either,
but just a few buttons)First race today just 6.8 seconds slower than Racing Post standard… And yesterday’s Topham just 10 seconds slower than standard. Ground drying out, it’s going to be genuine good ground by 5:15.
Value Is EverythingSo who’s everyone’s biggest bet and biggest return?
Walk In The Mill carries the majority of my wage, however Singlefarmpayment would be my biggest winner. Surprising considering he’s a sub in for me!
DOUNIKOS easily biggest win for me, Jury Duty will still be nice though. Dont have any other bets.
Done my own trends based purely on last 4 years as the race is always evolving and the most recent years are perhaps the best path to find this years winner.
3 of the 4 winners were 8yo
1 of the 4 was 9yo this was a strange stat year as it was a chase maiden who lost his maiden tag in the big one.So you must be on an 8yo looking at RECENT trends.
All 4 of the last 4 winners had between 10 and 16 chase starts
All 4 of the last 4 winners DID NOT run over hurdles the year they won the grand national.
All 4 of the last 4 winners had between 3 and 4 runs over fences before the national in the season they won in
3 of the last 4 winners won over at least 3m 2f, obviously the maiden winner had never won over any trip though it’s best run was 2nd over 3m 5f.
2 of the last 4 winners record over fences was 3 wins from 10 chase starts going into the race
2 of the last 4 winners had already won over marathon trips (3m5f and 3m 6f)
2 of the last 4 winners had won last time out
Only one horse fits my 4 year trends
DOUNIKOS
8yo
Has had 10 chases in total
Has not raced over hurdles this year
Has had 4 races this season all over fences
Has won over 3m 4 1/2f over fences
Record is 3 wins from 10 chase starts
Has already won over a marathon trip over fences
Won last time outBonus stats:
Trained by last years winning trainer
Was no match for the legend ELEGANT ESCAPE in the 2018 RSA but with the champ not running the door is open.
Trends that mean something from our old TRFer Mr Pru:
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/rowley/rowleyfile-preview-grand-national-542019
Value Is EverythingWithout doubt Jury Duty would be my biggest win in this Peter. The others would be decent
enough, but I’m really keen on JD
Trends that mean something from our old TRFer Mr Pru:
Why do his trends mean something?(implying my personally researched 4 year trends dont mean anything)
The most recent trends are always the most relevant as racing and races are always evolving.
For the record the article by Simon Rowlands is awful and I stopped reading at the first part of his statistical analysis.
Because he wanted to make a case for Ramses De Thaille he showed the records of 9 year olds, the record of 10 year olds, yet grouped 8 and younger together which then gave that group the best record.
He ignored that no 7yo has won the race since 1940 and instead used the superior record of 8yos to justify betting a 7yo
Truly awful journalism from pru imo
Blatantly twisting the data to suit his selection
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