2019 Grand National

Hello Bobbyjo1999 I, too, am new to this forum, though I have been reading it for some time. This is my first post. I am indeed a novice, with no discernable previous form. So I struggle with abbreviations sometimes. I don’t know what the GNG Forum is. I did understand “NTD has kept BDM in the GN”. I am not sure what you mean, though. Are you saying it must be taken into account? I think it might be worth your while reading what Steeplechasing has written about Bristol de Mai in various places. Here for example,
The Curious Case of Bristol De Mai
He believes, amongst other things, that the horse needs a long break between races.. His analysis of the horse was vindicated by its performance in the Gold Cup.

I shall take your lead on Go Conquer, especially as Venture to Cognac seems to give it more than an ounce of credibility.

Good luck with your selections.

Coneycard – for me the legend that is Tiger Roll, for all that he looks better than ever, is too short at 7/2. It’s the National, no horse IMO has a 22% chance of winning with the obstacles & fallers.
Personally i’d back him at around 7-8s, he’s probably a true 5s shot.
It’s hard to predict what the bookies will do, especially with so much public weight around this race but i would expect him to potentially drift out around declaration stage to 9/2-5s and then come back in on the day shortening right up when the books go 2000% at the off.
I’d love him to win it, he’s one of my favourite horses and the story would be incredible. He’s bred to be a flat horse FFS!

But money wise…

Rathvinden for me is the clear, clear second fav and will go off shorter than the 12s he currently is in place. I went back in for a second time at 12s at the weekend, he’s well in and looks to have a right chance if he gets round.

The way tiger roll jumped and travelled the other day was particularly ominous

He won me quite a bit of money that day so I re invested a little in him for this, as much because hes my favourite horse as anything

6/1 at the time felt a bit skinny for my liking for a horse in the national but I couldn’t live with myself if he won and I hadn’t backed him

He does look to have improved quite a bit this year so cant rule anything out but 7/2 is not a backable price for the national considering the likelihood of the horse getting badly impeded or brought down

I would say any betting proposition ended at 5/1, though don’t think iv ever backed a horse in the national at single figures before

Welcome Bobbyjo and Sungold. I backed Bobbyjo in 1999.

Can’t see Go Conquer myself. That Sky Bet Chase has been won by some good Grand National types in the past; but this year’s 3m contest was on a sounder surface and therefore didn’t test stamina at all. Go Conquer seems a 2 1/2 mile to 3m horse to me, very unlikely to stay 4 1/4m. He’s also a front runner who – although jumps very well with a clear view of the front – makes bad blunders if unable to get a good position and/or once passed. Good luck.

As for Tiger Roll: I had some 6.4/1 matched immediately after his Cheltenham victory, didn’t put him up on TRF until 5/1 was best price – and that only as a saver. He won last year, so obviously likes Aintree and its fences, jumps and stays well.

The stat of no dual winner since Red Rum puts many off. Trends might point you in the right direction sometimes, but punters should really look further in to why things happen. Grand National winners are obviously hindered by carrying more weight the following year (being off a higher mark). That’s why they seldom succeed again; not because winning twice is banned. Tiger Roll won the 2018 renewal off a mark of 150 and on that Grand National form is far from well handicapped off a new 13 lbs higher mark of 163… However, everything Tiger Roll has done this season suggests he’s more than deserved that higher mark. Far better racehorse in ability and appears an easier ride too. He’s in form and improving; current level of form puts him officially 8 lbs well-in (if the handicapper could have his time again would be carrying 8 lbs more)… And in all probability will progress still further. Not surprised he’s 7/2, top priced 4/1 now. 4/1 = 20%, so if you believe he has a better than 20% chance take the 4/1. If believing he has a worse than 20% don’t back him… Simples. But imo 4/1 seems to me around his true/fair chance of winning. Suspect will drift out at some point – possibly on the morning of the race – but I don’t expect him to start any bigger than 4/1. Hedgehunter and Many Clouds imo had good chances going in to their returns, things didn’t go right for them. But Tiger Roll has a better chance of going in again than any recent winner.

My advice if you haven’t yet backed Tiger Roll is to wait until able to get better than 4/1… And if 9/2 or 5/1 is “too short” for you in the Grand National, why not put a saver on him (getting back what you’d lose on a main bet/s)?

Hi gang,
Thanks for the welcome,SUNGOLD and GINGERTIPSTER,
GNG is the GRAND-NATIONAL-GUIDE forum,who had some very knowledgeable people on that blog………the reason I think BDM will stay in is mainly to keep BALYOPTIC and GO CONQUER’S weight down,BALYOPTIC’S weight has never been this light,10-11 is a very winnable weight,he’s normally lumping 11st+ around,the same goes for GO CONQUER,who’s last race he ran he won lumping 11-10 around,NTD is very shrewd and will not miss this opportunity to get a 3rd GN

Good luck to all with Tiger Roll, especially at decent prices, but he barely lasted home in 2018 and has a lump more here, aside from everything else that can go wrong in a National.

I’ve been working on a “fool proof” filtering system for several years now and while the new fences make a lot of old trends null and void; certain old trends remain while new ones emerge. The “new” course has been in effect for 6 years now, so I’ve applied my system to the last 6 winners before the changes (as well as those after, obviously) to allow as fair a spread as possible. The trends are…

8 years or older (12/12) – I appreciate there is a smaller sample size of runners under 8, but I personally prefer older horses in the race anyway.
10 or more chase starts (12/12)
Less than 5 falls in their career (12/12)
Won a chase as a novice (11/12) – Rule The World won as a maiden
Must have won a chase of at least 24f/3m (11/12) – Rule The World won as a maiden
Must have had at least 3 runs during the season (12/12)
At least one run between October and December (11/12) – Ballabriggs only exception. Added note; all 11 ran in at least one chase in said months.
At least one run in Feburary or March (11/12) – One For Arthur had a run (chase) in Janurary. All bar Don’t Push It and Pineau De Re had chase runs during said months, though the latter ran in a chase in Janurary.
Must have placed in the first three at least once in their last 3 runs (11/12) – Auroras Encore only exception.

Other things to consider, but not necessarily musts are to have run in the most recent: Scottish National(3), Hennessy(2), Becher Chase(2), Welsh National(1) and Irish National(2). 8/12 in total tick this box. Also tread lightly around those that have pulled up on their last start before going to Aintree. Don’t Push It is the only winner in the years in question to defy this trend, however it has become more and more commonplace for runners to race over very inadequate trips as a prep to avoid them having “hard races”. That said, we are left with this long list of possible winners. I’ve grouped together those who have pulled up last time out at the bottom…

Bristol De Mai
Anibale Fly
Tiger Roll
Don Poli (ran in Becher)
Yala Enki (ran in Welsh National)
Lake View Lad
Dounikos (ran in Irish National)
Shattered Love
Warriors Tale
Magic Of Light (only won over 23 1/2f, but it seemed harsh not to count it)
Jury Duty
Pairofbrowneyes (ran in Irish National)
Singlefarmpayment
Valseur Lido
General Principle (PU after last fence last time out, so doesn’t really count) (won Irish National)
The Storyteller (PU)
Sub Lieutenant (PU)
Vieux Lion Rougue (PU) (ran in Becher, Welsh National)

That’s obviously too big a list, so we need to dig deeper. Conveniently several of these don’t hold up to further scrutiny. For instance Bristol De Mai doesn’t strike as an out and out stayer. Don Poli finished third in a five runner race in which only four finished, 35 lengths behind the winner. His form otherwise has been poor. Dounikos isn’t the easiest to trust given his run of form before winning last time out and is 7lbs higher for it. Shattered Love hasn’t fully convinced that she stays much beyond 3 miles. Same applies to Warriors Tale who looks weighted to best. Pairofbrowneyes while impressive last time out and still worth a second look has generally struggled to string two decent runs together recently. Singlefarmpayment is quirky enough to just win this, but his history of finding one too good on the day is too big a worry in a 40 runner handicap. I’m not convinced Valseur Lido is a true stayer, though has clearly been plotted with this in mind now 17lbs lower than last year. Of those who pulled up last time out; The Storyteller and Sub Lieutenant aren’t genuine stayers and it’s hard to ignore the two PU’s next to Vieux Lion Rouge’s name.

That leaves us with…

Anibale Fly
Tiger Roll
Yala Enki
Lake View Lad
Magic Of Light
Jury Duty
General Principle

It’s difficult to factor much else in without clutching at straws (you could remove Anibale Fly and Tiger Roll if you only like those running in the race for the first time), so for now I’ll be leaving it be. Suffice to say I’m happy with my Yala Enki bet! Of the others Jury Duty is the one that interests me most.

All in the name of fun!