Troytown 2018

One of my favourite Handicaps of the season, and a race I like to have a good go at. Bar 2015, when the race completely fell apart, it’s usually a very strong line up. There’s just the suspicion that the initial entry stage isn’t quite as strong as usual this year, but I doubt it will make finding the winner any easier.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/193/navan/2018-11-25/716473

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/troytown-handicap-chase/winner

Dounikos – He promised plenty last term, but his season eventually fizzled out, leaving a few questions to answer. Go back a year and you’d give him a real squeak, and certainly not out of the question that this could be a long term plot, but he wouldn’t be my first choice from the yard until I seen more from him. Maybe one for later in the season.

Sumos Novios – He’s a horse who certainly had a decent time of it last season, hence his lofty position in the weights. Probably asked too much of a question in The Punchestown Gold Cup, but he can obviously be excused that. Nice horse, but the weather forecast may just be against him. If the rain does come in, then good enough to carry the weight.

Jett – I’ve followed this horse since his early days, and the ability is definitely there. I’m still surprised to see him in here though, and the trip, as well as the hustle and bustle of this race might not be what he wants. I had him in mind for a few targets in the spring, and I’d just be a little surprised if he trapped here. Second look though if he does line up.

Last Goodbye – Has done well for the yard, including a very convincing winner of a strong handicap at Leapordstown, and arguably very unlucky in the 2017 Close Bros Novices. Another one who I’d be more interested in later in the season, and has work to do from this mark.

Pairofbrowneyes – Massive fan of this horse, and if it weren’t for his entry for The Ladbroke Trophy, I’d probably take a chance at the 8’s. He always impressed over shorter distances for his previous yard, but the switch to Willie Mullins can only be a positive, as seen when winning The Leinster National. We didn’t get to see any progression at Fairyhouse, where he was an early casualty, but I’m sure either here or Newbury, we’ll see a big perfomance, as this mark does not look prohibitive at all. Big Player.

General Principle – Like Pairofbrowneyes, I’m a real fan of this boy, and he’s another who’s shortlist material. He was a shade disappointing in this last season, but his win in The Irish National, showing plenty of stamina, was very impressive. I’ve always thought that he was the type to run respectably in Graded Company, and though time is against him on that front, I do think we haven’t seen the best of him. A proper Grand National candidate, who holds an entry in The Becher, and wherever he ends up, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show that he’s better than a 144 Horse.
Shortlist.

Isleofhopendreams – No horse would deserve to win this more. He came from relative obscurity last season, considering he’s a Mullins horse, to fill the runners up spot in three of the biggest handicaps in Ireland, including to General Principle at Fairyhouse. He’s weighted to be competitive again, and he’s another who could head to Newbury. Entitled to be thereabouts.

Out Sam – A horse who’s always flattered to deceive, but he finally got the big win in The Cork National. He had threatened in his previous run, where he was badly hampered, so after a prolonged spell with Elliot, he’s finally began to show what he was capable of. He was a deserved winner that day, and though in as good form as he’s ever been, I just think the 8lb rise will make life tougher here.

Raz De Maree – Popular veteran who landed last years Welsh National, but he hasn’t shown much since. Handicapper has given him a chance, but it just might be that the years are catching up on him.

Some Neck – I’ve never been fully convinced by him, and hasn’t looked the smoothest conveyance. He’s out tomorrow at Punchestown, and that may be the time to reassess him.

Monksland – Promised so much in his younger days, but it didn’t really work out for him, and we haven’t seen too much of him. He can certainly put it up when he wants, getting his head in front last year, as well as huge run in The 2017 Coral Cup, but it’s a couple of years since he’s seen a fence in public, and on the face of it, a big ask. Yard has the winner of The Kerry National, so they can do it, but still, enough question marks just now, and I’d be a little surprised if he turned up, despite the suspicion that he might be very well treated.

Rogue Angel – He’s thrived for his switch to Elliots, and has been running well in all the right races. Was given a desperate ride in The Kerry National, which probably cost him, and though held since, he’s not been far away. Not my first choice for the win here, but he shouldn’t be far away.

Squouateur – Ran a very sound race behind Missed Approach and Mall Dini in The Kim Muir, and I think by the end of the season, that will prove to be be very strong form. Was going like the winner in the previous seasons renewal as well, so he has to be taken seriously here. There’s the obvious chance that he’ll have that race in mind again, and his actual win ratio is disappointing, but an obvious contender here, and still got his best years ahead of him. Impossible to rule out.

Tout Es Permis – Hadn’t achieved much at all, but his win last time at Galway, albeit in a race miles away from this, was certainly eyecatching. He’s only five, so surely more to come, but this is a different ball game to what he’s seen before. He should have a decent future, based on that Galway win, and just a question of whether they’ll throw him in at the deep end here.

Woods Well – I thought he did ok last season, despite the odd blip, and he shaped particularly well at Punchestown. He confirmed his wellbeing at Galway last month, with a very likeable performance, and considering connections, he looks way overpriced at 20’s.

Arkwrisht – An unlucky loser in last seasons Kerry National, and he also ran a screamer at Fairyhouse. He ran no sort of race in this last year though, off a similar mark, but he just strikes me as a horse to persevere with, and his run behind Saint Calvados last weekend was very encouraging.

Borice – He’s a recent recruit from France, and in the ownership of Munir/Souede. His French form doesn’t look up to this, but he’s in the right hands with Elliot, and I’ve no idea what to expect.

Livelovelaugh – A very smart hurdler for Willie Mullins, and he’s been seen sparingly as a chaser. I thought he shaped well over the larger obstacles last term, and can forgive him his spill at Cheltenham in The Close Bros. I think a dry week would help his cause, and he looks a player here.

Magic Of Light – Really likeable mare, who’s proved one for the big occasions, with two Punchestown Festival wins to her name. On bare form, she probably has her work cut out, but her prep was all you could ask for, and she’s not one to confidently put a line through.

Orion D’Aubrelle – He looks to have bags of potential for Willie Mullins, and I liked the way he went about it at Listowel. Still something of an unknown quantity though, and an another we get a chance to run the rule over at Punchestown tomorrow.

Space Cadet – Regular in these races, and ran a big race in this last year. He continued that form for much of the season, racking up some nice performances, before he finished the season with a couple of tamer efforts. Should run his race, but surely he’ll find two or three too good.

Spider Web – Munster National hero, who seems to be in great heart, and he was a shade unlucky the time before at Galway. It’s easy to forget, after that thrilling finish at Limerick, just how well he finished, and I thought he won in the manner of a horse who they haven’t got to the bottom of. Has to be a contender.

Eight Till Late – He’s been kept busy, running a staggering sixteen times since April. It doesn’t seem to have done him too much harm though, and probably in the form of his life, and that run isn’t littered with too many poor efforts. Likeable sort, but I’d still be a little surprised if he was up to this.

Fitzhenry – Still a youngster, who looks to have plenty on his plate here. Couldn’t possibly rule him out as one for the future, but his run over timber last week, didn’t scream the winner of this, and I’d have to pass him over for now.

Mr Diablo – I thought he’d develop into a smart staying chaser, but he’s clearly had his issues. Only one run in the last year and a half, in that hurdle race behind Fitzhenry, where he was very poor. Very hard to make a case for here.

Minella Beau – He really caught the eye at Galway, winning in impressive style, ahead of some good types, and some subsequent winners. Not quite as impressive on his next two starts, but although he was probably held when tipping up in The Cork National, it was a run that suggested that he could figure in something like this. In no rush to dimsiss him.

Burgas – Smashing run last weekend, and just went down to Discorama, to add to similar sound efforts over the last year. I think he could land a race like this in time, he’s certainly going the right way, but I’d just be a little surprised if he was ready to land this renewal.

Killer Miller – Subject of very strong late support in this two years back, but he didn’t figure, and he’s been off for nearly two years, last seen when falling in The Paddy Power. Very hard to be confident about off of this layoff.

Scoir Mear – Not got too many wins to his name, but he seems solid enough, and no harm in getting swept aside by the likes of Kemboy last time. Big field won’t phase him, he’s another who ran well in the 2017 Coral Cup, and he’s on a nice enough mark here. Runs at Punchestown today, and that should tell us more.

Timiyan – Game winner of The Midlands National at Kilbeggan in The Summer, though he was subsequently stripped off that race for a positive sample. Badly out of sorts since though, and hard to fancy on that evidence.

Velocity Boy – Kept decent company in the past, and had hinted at being up to a race of this nature. In the process of running a huge race in The Cork National last time, and if no ill effects from that tumble, a dark horse who looks to have a realistic chance of making the frame.

Na Trachtali Abu – Heartbreaking for the yard, when he lost The Munster National in the final strides, it was a massive run. He had hinted at ability before that though, and it wasn’t a complete surprise that Limerick run. He’s up another 3lbs though, and has already had a tough season. He’s got a chance, but there’s the just the thought that last time was the day to catch him.

Our Father – A very good horse in his prime, but his first run for Elliot after three years off was very disappointing. Plenty of question marks after that run, but he’s not one to give up on completely, and worth watching the market over the next few days.

Poormans Hill – Made the frame in this last year, and went on to have a good time of it, but recent runs would suggest that he may just be in the hands of the handicapper. Not out of the question that he’s been primed for a repeat bid here, but he’ll have to be A1 here, arriving nine pounds higher.

Close Shave – Looked to be going the right way last year, but the wheels have really came off. Very difficult to make a solid case for him, and he’s another who could only be bet if the market suggested.

Mine Now – On the face of it, he’s up against it on known chase form, and he was certainly beat when falling last time. However, his win at big odds in an ultra competitive handicap hurdle last December at Leapordstown is fresh in the memory, and is perhaps the reason why he’s a low as 16’s.

Ned Stark – One time big hope for Alan King, but his career has been blighted by setbacks, and he’s only ran once in two and a half years. That solitary run was his debut for Gordon Elliot over a year ago, and it was very disappointing. Impossible to recommend, though equally impossible to predict his wellbeing.

Young Turk – He impressed me last summer, and kept tabs on him since. I’m happy to forgive him his spill last time, it was still a promising run. This might be too early for him, but in time could see him feature in something like this, as he’s a promising sort.

Kylecrue – A horse I know very well, and he’s as tough as old boots. Possibly on the downgrade, but his run in The Munster National was encouraging, and I haven’t totally given up on him on the back of that run. Handicapper is relenting, and he’s a horse who wouldn’t be inconvenienced by a dry week. Outside chance at 40’s, but equally, he’s probably 40’s to sneak in.

Major Destination – Threw away a win at Sligo in September, downing tools on the run in, and he followed this up with an abysmal effort in The Cork National. He gets a chance to redeem himself over hurdles at Punchestown tomorrow, but he looks very unlikely to get in here anyway.

That’s the Top 40 then, and it seems highly unlikely that those further down will scrape in.

To my eyes then, not a stellar renewal. I wanted to see General Principle and Pairofbrowneyes in there, and they’re near the top of the list, though at 12’s and 8’s respectively, they’re risky Antepost with those other engagements. Of the pair, I think General Principle looks the most likely to head here, and at the 12’s, he shades it as my #1.

Livelovelaugh is another very interesting contender, as is Woods Well, and this pair are certainly tempting prices. The JP pair of Squouateur, and Spider Web also jump out.

Early Shortlist
Pairofbrowneyes 8’s
Spider Web 10’s
General Principle 12’s
Squouateur 12’s
Livelovelaugh 14’s
Woods Well 20’s