Scottish National 2018

One of the biggest chases of the jumps season, and certainly one of the biggest betting heats.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2018-04-21/696819

As is always the case at it’s initial entry stage, it’s hard to take a firm stance on, as so many of these will have Aintree on the agenda, and just not for the big one, while Punchestown, and The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, also muddy the waters somewhat.

No harm in looking though, and I’ll try to avoid those with entries in the big one at Aintree, as there’s not much point second guessing at this stage, how that race will pan out for them.

I had a small shortlist for this, and three of them have made it to this stage, namely Bigbadjohn, Daklondike, and Gingili.

Bigbadjohn is one of those many horses who suffered from the dramatic slump in the fortunes of Rebecca Curtis, and not for the first time for a horse leaving her yard, he won first time out for Nigel Twiston-Davies. He had always looked the perfect type for the bigger staying handicaps, but like so many, he looked woefully out of form. As a consequence though, even with that win under his belt, he looks very well treated, and I remain enthusiastic about him. I hope he doesn’t take up his option in The Topham. Talking of yards going through a slump, it’s been a long time since the Pipe yard was mentioned along with the big boys, but in Daklondike, I think they have a youngster, who they consider to be very decent. Loads to like about his attitude at Newbury, and it’s not gone unnoticed that he’s had a few entries he hasn’t taken up, suggesting they don’t want to bottom him in something like The Eider, or The Midlands National. I like what Pipe is doing with him, and being at the right end of the handicap, he can afford a big run here, and still remain on a fair mark next year, with Aintree surely on the agenda. I always like to follow the yards runners in this. Gingili is a bit more leftfield, but he looked in great form the last time we seen him, and hopefully the anticipated spring ground will be to his liking. Has time on his side, and I really do think he’s going the right way.

It’s not a race that gets swamped by Irish Challengers, though there’s always a few make the trip, and not for the first time, it’s runners from the Gordon Elliot yard that get my immediate attention. Folsom Blue had a bloody hard race on Monday, but there’s no doubting he’s never been better than this season, and I just wonder, having been a very unlucky loser at Fairyhouse, no doubt in my mind he would have won, that they’ll maybe risk him here. Absolutely bouncing away in this two years ago, until he was brought down a few fences from home, and he merits plenty of respect. The other one to grab my attention, well not so much grab my attention, more like he’s shot to the top of the shortlist, is Fagan. I’ve absolutely no doubt he’s raring to go, having missed Cheltenham and Fairyhouse, due to ground concerns, and I would have no qualms about him coming here off of a long break. If it stays dry, he is a huge player here.

Of the other Irish Challengers, well, Thunder and Roses will always get a strong word from me, and if not for Aintree, he’d be considered, while I’d have the same problem with the evergreen Portrait King, and one or two others from across The Irish Sea. It’s more by luck than design that Fine Rightly hasn’t cost me too much over the last couple of years. Banged his drum many a time, he really did look to be a big winner in waiting, but not only has he flattered to deceive, he misses his fair share of engagements too, and that’s more than enough reason to swerve him here.

Closer to home, one horse who really interests me is Missed Approach. He fair broke my heart at Cheltenham, but in hindsight, getting close to Tiger Roll the year before should have been a big enough clue, and getting the better of Mall Dini, and Squouateur this year, on a day when they would have been at their prime, is no mean feat, and I look at him completely differently now. He might just be very decent, and is already high on my list for Aintree next season. He’s on a lovely mark, more than enough to make him competitive here, and the only negative I can see is coming off of that hard race last time.

Impulsive Star & Sizing Tennessee also had hard races at Cheltenham, in The National Hunt Chase, but both ran well enough to be considered here. I’m particularly keen on Tennessee, and I’m fairly certain that he has one of the main handicaps in him. He’s entered in The Topham, but I see the 3 Mile Handicap on National Day, as more of his thing, and though not getting any younger, he screams “Hennessy” to me, and I’ll be with him for the next few runs.

If I like Bigbadjohn from the NTD yard, then I have to have a look at his other contenders, and worryingly, it’s hard to put a line through any of them. Benbens and Cogry, though unpredictable, will have everything in their favour here, and though both ran dismally last time, that wouldn’t concern me here, and both of them have made the frame in this before. Blaklion is surely only a precautionary entry (though I suppose that could change if it bottomless at Aintree), and that leaves us with Ballymalin, and Ballyoptic. Ballymalin comes into this off a more than adequate run at Uttoxeter, and he has one or two other runs which give him a squeak, but really, off of 149, then Ballyoptic jumps right off of the page. A very decent hurdler last term, his Novice Season over fences has been very good, culminating in success in The Towton, before not being disgraced behind Presenting Percy and Co, at Cheltenham. A very very interesting contender, who joins Fagan at the top of a shortlist which is giving me a serious headache. The fact that Bet365 offer 16’s is proving very hard to resist.

Peter Bowen is another trainer I like to follow round here, but several of his may take in Aintree first, and I’ll re-address his runners after that. For the record, he has……

Buachaill Alainn
Henllan Harri
Henri Parry Morgan
Pearl Swan
Wadswick Court

…all entered, and early preference would be for the “rejuvenated” Henri Parry Morgan, though a lot may depend on what mark he is given after his Ffos Las win, having flopped in this off of 135 two years back.

Colin Tizzard is another trainer with a few entered. I’ve already mentioned Sizing Tennesse, and as well as a couple who are in The National, he can also call on West Approach, and Sizing Codelco. Both have serious questions to answer, Codelco clearly has a physical issue, while I suppose on the odd run, I could see West Approach just surprising a few here. He could equally flop again, but he at least has a “dark horse” look about him.

The manner in which Baywing won The Eider, surely hasn’t went unnoticed, he seemed to have loads in the tank at the business end, and in a race which sometimes makes for uncomfortable viewing, he was a joy to watch at the end. Very impressive, and I don’t think a 9lb hike will burden him too much at all. Serious player. Stablemate Guitar Pete, has enjoyed a fine time of it this year, making up for misfortune in The Betvictor, with victory in The Caspian Caviar (getting his own share of luck this time), and also running well at The Festival. He looks nicely treated, and even with major question marks surrounding the trip, he strikes me as a very interesting entry here, and I’m in no rush to write him off on account of the trip.

Big River looks on a nice enough mark of 143, and there has to be a good chance that this is the plan, and he has to have a live chance here of giving Lucinda Russell her second “National” in 12 months, while a trainer who has a less than impressive record in the “Nationals” is Nicky Henderson. Sugar Baron & Beware The Bear, although both far from consistent, have some sort of chance, though I’d give much preference to the latter, with that victory at Newcastle fresh in the memory. Hendersons old sparring partner, Paul Nicholls, has a couple of interesting ones, not least Vicente, who looks to have a hat trick bid here on the cards, in preference to Aintree, and his Silsol is another who has claims.

Philip Hobbs is a trainer who won’t look back on this season with much fondness, and Rock The Kasbah did little to improve matters at Haydock, running a stinker, but even though he looks one for Sandown, on a going day, I would give him a squeak here.

Very tough call just now then, and haven’t even covered half of them.

I now have a shortlist of six, so that has to be whittled down. I’ll hold fire on Gingili (40’s), as he is very ground dependent, and even then, his price should hold more or less. Sizing Tennessee at 20’s I would be mad keen on, but I have the feeling we’ll see him at Aintree.

That leaves me with Bigbadjohn, who may have The Topham to contend with first, and as he is available at 25’s, and unlikely to come down dramatically in the short term, I can hold off on him just now as well.

Shortlist
Ballyoptic 16’s
Daklondike 25’s
Fagan 20’s

Fagan is another who is ground dependent, while Ballyoptic, who this looks perfect for, might, just might, have one of the big Novice Chases at Aintree in mind, he’s certainly ran well there before. Both of them will be Win Only if I bet them, so a few more quid on them won’t hurt if I miss those, admittedly, very generous looking prices. Looking at it, there’s every chance I could have a “book” here.

That leaves me with Daklondike. I can’t see him going to Aintree (touch wood), and I think they’ll let him take his chance here, whatever the ground. I thought he’d be near the head of the market, but I can get 25’s. Madness. I have to take a chance on that.

Daklondike 25’s Each Way

GL