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I think that Lord Glitters deserves his place at the head of the market, and surely a future out of handicaps awaits.
Minefield of a race on the day, never mind a month away, but already started looking, and the first one to really catch the eye is Tony Curtis. He’s caught the eye a few times, not least in The Betfred Mile last year, and his seasonal comeback was encouraging, and I don’t think they’ve pushed the button with him yet. I initially thought that I’d single him out for The Goodwood Race again, but he makes plenty of appeal here as well, and at a big price, he looks of real interest. 40’s is decent, and he’s my #1
A horse who rarely delivers, but one that I give a nod to more than he really deserves, on recent form anyway, is Battle of Marathon. Loads to find on recent evidence, and on the borderline for scraping in, but I’ve seen enough from him over the last 12 months to give him another look here. 2nd in this two years ago off of 110, be’ll tackle this off of 97, and I’m loving that 66’s.
Hors De Combat is another frustrating horse, but I was encouraged by his showing in Meydan a few months back. He’s been solid enough in these type of events, without properly challenging, but I’m in no rush to write him off either. He’s maybe more one for the day as a saver.
Bravery really caught the eye in defeat a few times last year, but he’s got a fight on his hands to get in, while Dark Red, who has the measure of him at Goodwood, is another interesting one.
Last but not least is the promising Chiefochiefs, and a nice run at Sandown today could see him hurtling up the weights, and I don’t think it’s out of the question.
Lots will happen between now and then, and plenty of time for me to change my mind, but for now, a close watch on Chiefochiefs at 25’s, and an early couple of quid on……
Battle of Marathon 66’s Each Way
Tony Curtis 40’s Each WayOne that caught my eye and runs well at ascot is Firmanent. The step back up to a mile will be fine, he ran really well in the Victoria Cup and the handicapper is beginning to give him a chance again (25s Ladbrokes EW) Probably don’t win enough but you will get a run for your money, if he makes it there
GL all
A word of warning for anyone thinking about John Gosden’s Pouvoir Magique here. His rating of 94 may not get him into the race.
Last year’s race saw the bottom weights rated on 97 so the standard of horse required to get a run is pretty high.
I was interested in the filly Urban Fox at 33/1 for William Haggas. She won her first couple of races at 2YO and then ran third to Rhododendron and Hydrangea in the Group 1 Fillies Mile as a 50/1 outsider. She then ran second in the Fred Darling at Newbury aged 3YO before finding herself out of her depth behind Winter in the 1000 Guineas.
Kept to group and listed class the daughter of Foxwedge transferred to the Haggas stable from the Tate yard and tried her hand in handicap company for the first time in her career, staying on well to score over a mile at Ascot. Going up 5 lbs for that win to 102 seemed an ideal mark to get into the Royal Hunt Cup but it seems they are going to run her at Epsom in Group 3 company this week and that looks a bad move to me. Why not try to exploit the mark in handicaps and then go up in class later?
The ground may have gone against her at Epsom as well, with all of her form on good to firm.
I sometimes wonder what the thinking is with trainers but that’s just the way I would be looking at things myself. Course form and a workable looking mark seemed worth trying to cash in on with a filly finding her feet again for a new yard.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Pouvoir Magique running at Newcastle tomorrow, looking to get the 5LB pen to move his mark to 99(maybe then he’ll get in still tight)
Got stuck into Sharja Prince NRNB @ 14/1 for this.
If he runs, he will be half that price.
I waited and took 25/1 NRNB Urban Fox, because she is also entered up in the fillies Gp 2.
Lord Glitters seems to be going for the Queen Anne, which seems ambitious but it’s an open race.
I feel Urban Fox may be reasonably handicapped and so long as the going is sound she should have a squeak at 25/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Stats up to 2017 (not inlcuding Zhui Feng)
14/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Unplaced favourites
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs that season
9/15 – Had run at Ascot before
8/15 – Won by a 4 year-old (inc 6 of the last 8 runnings)
5/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/15 – Won by trainer John Gosden
1/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 16/1
Overall high number stalls have dominated in recent years
9 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
We’ve seen 3 winners from stall 33 in the last 8 runningsCape Byron 20/1.
Beaten 4L by Afaak LTO giving him 3lbs, he’s now getting 3lbs and based on his ascot run last season he likes the place. Could easily improve for his first run and like that Atzeni is up.
Looks as if Haggas is chasing rainbows in the Cambrigeshire instead of trying to take advantage of Urban Fox’s handicap mark here.
If she is good enough to win in a group 2, surely she was a dot off 102 in the Hunt Cup?
Anyway, NRNB and money back.
I am yet to see anything to replace her with and may just leave it. Paddy Power are offing SIX places at 1/5th the odds a place and that’s a decent concession for each way punters in a minefield race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Second dart – Kynren 25/1.
Well handicapped still off 96, only got 3lbs for his last run when he should’ve beaten Chiefofchiefs who subsequently should’ve followed up on Saturday (Doyle gave him a poor one IMO). Quick ground is the worry but he handled quicker conditions last time and doesn’t look entirely dependent on it. Hold up style can suit Ascot handicaps and has an alright draw.
I see your six places Steve and I raise you SEVEN with Skybet.
Cracking value for the each way shrewdies imo.
Taking about good offers Steve and MOM, albeit not extra places, Bet365 are offering
a matched bet, up to £50 on one race each day, the Hunt Cup being today’s race. Place
a bet (or bets) on any race prior to the Hunt Cup and they will match the biggest bet,
up to £50, as a free bet in the nominated race each day. Tuesday’s race was the King’s
Stand. I didn’t quite go the £50, a bit more than my individual bets, but I did decide
last minute to bump 40 on Calyx to qualify. He obliged, although my matched bet of £20
e/w on Washington DC sunk without trace. I’ve kept the rest of the winnings in my account,
and I’ve already stuck the full 50 on Nelson at 9/2 in the Queens Vase, which gives me a
free 50 punt in the Hunt Cup. I’ve not quite decided who I’m going to give the mark of Cain
to in that one. The nominated races in each of the 3 following days are the Ascot Gold Cup,
the Coronation Stakes and the Wokingham.Apologies for going a bit off topic, but I thought it was such a decent offer that I should
mention it in case anyone with a Bet365 account had not noticed it amongst the the pile of
emails that have come flooding through this week from every bookie.
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