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Also tempted by the 50s NRNB on American. Big horse should carry a bit of weight no bother, jumped decently enough at Cheltenham on his “real” seasonal reappearance in the Cotswold, handicapper has been kind for that run, big horse should come on plenty for the run. No harm to wait a bit as big fragile horse hard to keep sound. Also would like to see Fry stable firing on all cylinders. Hopefully price should hold up for a bit.
Chase experience is important in a race like this. For as long as I can remember the winner has had at least 9 chase starts going into the race.
I have followed Joe in with AS DE MEE but have backed it at 50/1 NRNB with Skybet because as Joe so rightly says if Bryony is on it it won’t start anything like that price.
The other one I have backed ante post is WARRIORS TALE from the same yard at 40/1 NRNB and it seems that Trevor Hemmings has bought it which usually points to the National.
Sorry if I am second guessing but I have to do something to try and back a National winner having only backed four of them in my lifetime!!
I have to admit to being ignorant of the sale of Abolitionist when I bet him, but he’s in good hands now with Newlands, and pleasing to see that this is why he was bought.
It’s the biggest race of the year, so there is no shame in having 3 antepost, and I am strongly considering Wild West Wind on the way he went along at Chepstow
Chase runs at least 10
Age 8 to 11
Season Runs 3 or more
Days since last run 20-60
3m chase wins at least 1
Weight up to 11st 6lb
Season Fall no more than 1
Career Fall no more than 2
Biggest Chase win over 30k
With these trends in mind I will be backing:
Blaklion
Vyta De Roc
The Dutchman
Carole’s Destrier
Tiger RollBlaklion and TD will likely be cut if running well on Saturday…
Took some 44s for Gas Line Boy. I know he is 12 years old and a slightly higher mark than last year, but he was better than ever at Aintree this autumn. He was hampered at his last two jumps last year in the National, might do better this year.
TAPK has a surprisingly good record in the Grand National and I dont even back all the runners like my old pal Ginge does..
You don’t back “all the runners“ Gord; you just back all the non-runners.
Hope backing a doubtful runner pays off for you this time. After the weights launch, David Mullins seemed pretty sure the horse is ahead of his handicap mark; but far less certain to run given inexperience and injuries.
Bellshill has a particularly good record in April and as you say – goes well around Aintree’s Mildmay course… So there are positives if turning up and if improving his jumping.
Personally, I think 33/1 NRNB looks pretty good value, around 40/1 without that concession doesn’t.
Value Is EverythingI saw those stats on another site. Unfortunately I think they would have failed to find the last 5 winners.
I don’t like trends, Joliff. For sure most have some logic to them, some too much logic, some encapsulate most of the field, so of course most winners are going to have that trait. Most trends are too simplistic and/or too dismissive.
Chase runs at least 10 – Those with experience do better in a 40 runner race over unconventional fences.
Age 8 to 11 – Very few Grand National runners aren’t aged 8 to 11. Fact is if just one of the very few 12 or 7 year olds to run were to win, then as a percentage that age group would be doing better than their number of runners indicate they should. So it may be just coincidence. However, a 7 year old that has the experience or a 12 year old who wasn’t fully exposed/on the downgrade would be ok.
Season Runs 3 or more – Most runners will have run 3 or more times – sound horses do better than unsound horses.
Days since last run 20-60 – The usual “days since”. For most stayers less than 20 days since last run doesn’t give enough time to recover. If over 60 days the horse is likely to have a physical problem since.
3m chase wins at least 1 – So you don’t want a non-stayer. Personally, I wouldn’t want one that wins at 3m if it didn’t stay 3m2f around a conventional track. And only needs to run to form, not win.
Weight up to 11st 6lb – Few years ago it was “up to 11 st 0 lbs” because there was a time with very few runners with more than 11 stone. Now, the trends have had to up it again. Some years there’s only one horse that doesn’t fit in to the up to 11 st 6 lbs band. Is the 11-06 plucked out of the air purely because thats the weight of the favourite? Why not 11-05?
Season Fall no more than 1 –
Career Fall no more than 2 – Best not to be a serial faller, yes. But some horses ruin their chance by making too many and/or serious errors without falling… And some have improved their jumping since those falls and it’s folly to dismiss such horses. For some bold jumpers jumping is essentially their massive asset in most of their races making lengths at obsticles, just because they fall occaisionally doesn’t make bold jumpers a poor bet.Value Is EverythingHow different I feel this year to last year. Last year I was telling everyone who’d listen to back One For Arthur after that Warwick race.
This year, I’m a bit stuck. There’s three in my mind but I won’t be having a bet just yet:
– Buywise always stays on and could be interesting in a national. But his previous run in the race was not how I’d like.
– Bellshill, I see mentioned by TAPK, who NRNB is very very interesting for all the reasons he’s mentioned.
– Finally, not sure if anyone’s mentioned him on this thread yet, Gold Present. He just screams national horse to me everyone time he runs. I absolutely love a horse staying on with a brilliant attitude in his races as a national type and he has that in abundance.
The latter two are potential bets atm but I’ll hold out for now.
These trends were accurate as of last year I believe…
Trends aren’t for everyone and I appreciate your comments Ginger. However in such a race I feel they serve as interesting pointers and as such have influenced my decision to back the 4 horses mentioned. I believe all should run well if taking their entry and should hopefully last the distance given each of their traits and form.
I like Gold Present over 2 and a half – 3 miles but not liking him as a 4 and a quarter miler.
I really fancy a horse that no ones mentioned yet as far as I could see, Warriors Tale @ 50-1.
A look at this Nicholls horses profile, makes quite interesting reading to me.
Second to One for Arthur over three miles on his last start for Nicky Richards in a soft ground novice hurdle, back in March 2015, after which he moved to Nicholls. In Feb 2016, he ran over 3m2f on soft ground, recording his best hurdle RPR pretty much, when given his biggest test of stamina to date. Since then, twelve races over shorter distances, mainly over fences, winning on GF & G-S ground, stepped back up to 3m for the first time, since his first ever start over fences (some nine races and two years before, a win). Last time out he ran a stonking race, in a good listed handicap at Doncaster. He finished second to Wakanda carrying my money at 14-1 (looked very likely to win on run in, after the race he was purchased by Trevor Hemmings).
This horse looks well handicapped to me off 149 in the context of this race, he also looks likely to improve for the extreme trip, on goodish ground. 50-1 is a big price IMO, he has recent form with Gold Present (over 2m6f). I see one of them improving big time for the test in Warriors Tale, and Gold Present not seeing it out. GP is 20-1, WT 50-1.
For the first time I can remember, it looks to me like Paul Nicholls has actually set one up specifically for the national! If he takes to the fences, I can see a big run coming from this improving 9YO, and no where near the current 50’s come the day.
I’m really hoping he does not go to Cheltenham for the Ultima.
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