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Terrific write up Bobby
I always find it interesting to see others opinions about the ones I have backed LOLI am on WARRIORS TALE at 50/1 THE DUTCHMAN 33/1 GOLD PRESENT 25/1 PLEASANT COMPANY 40/1 and VIRGILIO at 100/1 I am sure I will be backing something else on the day!!
Many thanks guys, much appreciated.
@Gingertipster
Yeah, really hopeful of Carlingford, and his dip in form just isn’t a case of natural regression, then he looks to be way overpriced.As for Tiger Roll, I just think he has loads ahead of his mark, and would fancy him off levels against any of those above him.
Yes, he hasn’t placed in The Gold Cup like some of the others, but he’s peaking, and would’ve placed in this years Gold Cup, however The National is the route they’ve taken. He’s a miles better horse than the entire Gold Cup Field, bar Native River, and possibly Might Bite. Miles better
I think Joe called it right Bobby, that has to be at the top of your pile…..and that’s
saying somethingI don’t think I’ve ever been so undecided about the National, I’ve a couple which are
extremely unlikely to get in, but those aside I’m finding it hard to whittle it down
to a short list. At this stage I’m probably going to wait until the day and see what
tempting titbits the bookies offer, but I’ll be keeping an eye on Warriors Tale,
and if the 50s starts to disappear I’ll grab some of that, if not, as I say, I’ll back
him on the day.Tiger Roll‘s number 2 fan signing in. A spooky similar preparation to Cause of Causes attempt at this last year. Unfortunately for him he ran into one that was the only type of horse that could beat him in hindsight.
Looks like he has been aimed at this race for sometime, what with hurdles runs and two Cross country’s .Been having a few bets this year on him @ 50’s down in the hope that he is a Gold Cup horse in a handicap off 11.0. Pretty sure that is where VTC is coming from also
Must admit to being more nervous about his health than anything else. He really can just run through a fence sometimes, really hoping he comes back safe and sound more than anything else.
Second one is old Maggio Been chipping away at Ladbrokes boost lately. Place element of 33/1 for him is attractive and can see quite a bit of press coverage at the weekend given his Liverpudlian connections and being past winners with Auroras Encore.
Probably the worst race in the world to be confident about, only ever had the winner once.
Good luck for the race everyone.
What possible form do you guys believe Tiger Roll has that makes him a prospective Gold Cup horse?
Explain yourselves.
Seems to me people are thinking his form is better than it is purely because he’s won three Cheltenham Festival races. Not every Cheltenham race is of the same quality, they’re not the Championship races of the Champion Chase, Ryanair or Gold Cup; not even Championship Novice chases of Arkle or RSA.
Beat Guitar Pete 5 lengths off level weights over hurdles in the Triumph. Guitar Pete went on to win the Anniverary Hurdle in his next race and Tiger Roll was certainly one of the best Juvenile hurdlers, but we are talking only juvenile hurdlers, not established hurdlers. Guitar Pete was probably a better hurdler than chaser, but looking at the handicap marks… He won the Caspian Caviar this season off a mark of just 134, not in the 160‘s it would need to be for Tiger Roll to have any chance in the Gold Cup or the 170’s needed to actually win a good Gold Cup.
Beat Missed Approach by 3 lengths off level weights in the National Hunt Chase. Missed Approach was rated 148 for that performance but came down to just 138 to win this year’s Kim Muir, not in the 160‘s it would need to be for Tiger Roll to have any chance of being Cheltenham Gold Cup class.
And
Beat Urgent De Gregaine by 2 lengths off level weights in the Cross Country. Urgent De Gregaine had got beaten on his previous start off a mark of 142. Did UDG improve? Handicapper thinks not, but I think yes very probably. But did he improve in to a 160‘s horse needed for Tiger Roll to be Gold Cup class? No.It’s nowhere near Gold Cup form, never has a poorer quality horse won three non-handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival. Form of Tiger Roll’s Triumph, National Hunt Chase and Cross Country performances are rated very similarly, so arguably hasn’t even needed to improve from his four year old days.
That of course doesn’t mean he won’t win the National off 11-0, may be he’ll improve a little for the extreme test?
But surely not as well handicapped as you (normally good judges) make out? Tiger Roll has at least another 20 lbs to find to win a Gold Cup.Value Is EverythingMy post from yesterday:
Not sure how much rain is forecast to fall on Friday, but assuming it could be significant, I’ve decided to add Baie Des Iles each way.
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Do betting firms monitor this site closely or something 😉Has a fair chance, Shotta.
Ridden by a woman, trained by her husband and being a grey, will every woman in the land be backing Bais Des Iles in to favouritism?Value Is EverythingGinger is right to a point, Tiger Roll in a Gold Cup would be tailed off, off level weights.
However the National is a handicap that provides a unique test and that is why ‘the best horse’ on paper rarely wins especially the ones near the head of the weights. Another reason I wont be backing Anibale Fly this year.
John Francome made a point when he was on TV, he said if you carry a big weight and you make a bad mistake you can added a few lbs to that for every mistake you make. That may apply to all horses but i’m guessing that’s why the 2 bigger weighted horses (11 stone 6 plus) recently that won, Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds, were very nimble and economical jumpers who were able to conserve their energy on the way round.
Looks like it’s on again this year
https://extra.bet365.com/promotions/en/horse-racing/grand-national-money-back-offer
Tiger Roll’s level of ability is far more established than Sizing John, Botchy. Is yet to prove himself anything like genuine Grade 1 class over fences, has already had plenty of opportunities at staying trips and it will be his third season chasing next year… Far less likely to improve in to a Gold Cup horse than one already proven up to Grade 1 class as a novice chaser at lesser trips, who hadn’t yet had any opportunity of showing what he could do at staying trips, and going in to only his second season – a la Sizing John.
Tiger Roll is nothing like Sizing John.
There is a good arguement that Tiger Roll is very similar to Cause Of Causes, so may be he will run well on Saturday, but neither of them Gold Cup class.Value Is EverythingJust on Baie Des Iles, Ginger. The forecast earlier in the week suggested the possibility of a heavy ground National and that combined with the novelties you mention probably triggered the ‘taking no chances’ big market move. Still has a likeable profile, though having run with credit in the Welsh and Irish nationals; the later as a 5 year old.
Just read Vtc’s monster race guide and had to back Carlingford Lough as well. The way he finished off some of those big race wins offers encouragement, especially if still in the mix approaching the elbow. Looks a top shout at those odds.
Current bets:
Anibale Fly 18’s
Baie Des Iles 40’s EW
Carlingford Lough 75’s EWFantastic preview Bobby. Great read even thought I am not having a bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
NRNB has saved me twice so far in this, and I think it may be a blessing that Go Conquer doesn’t go here.
To go with Bless The Wings and Buywise, I’ll add another 2.
Warriors Tale at 50-1
The Dutchman at 25-1Both of them will be each way to 6 places
That Bet365 offer means the betfair place market will be the place to get the best value Saturday.
Value Is EverythingLess likely Vintage Clouds will get a run now. Although ground is definitely soft, the forecast will encourage trainers of good ground horses to remain in the race until after the Friday 13:00 deadline for reserves.
Value Is EverythingGT – I remember last year you identified 2 or 3 great value place bets on Betfair due to the Bet £3.65 offer. Would you do the same again this year on your DLAP thread? It would be most appreciated
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