Grand National 2018

Good Point about Genie in abottles form in big fields SC, that is a negative, but 80s NRNB is worth a punt. There is a chance he wont go to Aintree.

REGAL ENCORE @ 33/1 is also one i like, but will wait the ground to dry out before backing him

I think you are right to be concerned Nausered. There is rain today and later this week, and whilst,
as you mentioned Mike, it’s to be better next week they still have some midweek. Looking at Turftrax
to see the state of the ground anywhere nearby, the 2 closest this week are Catterick (admittedly over
100 miles) where the ground is heavy and waterlogged in places, and Wetherby (under 100 miles) who have
had to cancel their meeting on Friday due to flooding. I know They are more central whereas Aintree is
on the west coast, but in general everywhere seems to be heavy in general. From what I can gather I
understand that Aintree is generally heavy at the moment. The National is only 10 days away and even
with the rain forecast I can’t see how it is going to be better than heavy, if there is more rain than
they forecast (although that never happens ) it is going to be very testing. Quite a few have mentioned they don’t want more rain and others that their horses want decent good spring ground.

I think there is a fair chance that many could be withdrawn because of conditions, which wouldn’t do
one of mine, Mysteree, any harm as he needs 20 to come out and bottomless ground would boost his chances.

Is there anyone down that way that can give any update

I hadn’t seen that article Kev, it gives a more upbeat view from the Clerk of The Course,
but I seem to recall Cheltenham giving similar assurances before the festival. Personally
I’d be surprised if it turns out to be better than heavy/soft in places. Fontwell is the only
turf meeting to survive (at this point) before Saturday, and on Saturday both Kelso and
Uttoxeter are heavy. Could be a bit of wishful thinking by the COTC.

A couple of dry days in a row and it can soon swing round at this time of year. Met office forecast for next 7 days is 6 dry days with a fair amount of rain dropping on Sat. I think at worst it will be soft dependant on what Thurs and Fri of next week looks like

Fresh from my blog:

This is my third tip (so far) for the Randox Health Grand National on April 14th. As De Mee, my first, has been withdrawn, injured; hopefully most readers took the 50/1 NRNB that one.

Milansbar, tip number two, now looks as though he will definitely get in the race with Bryony Frost riding and should go off much shorter than the advised 50/1. Looking through the field again today for more value, I see one who looks potentially overpriced by some way – Virgilio, Dan Skelton’s horse – who’s available at 100/1 NRNB (non runner, no bet).

Most potential National bets are prominent in the minds of punters; horses like Saint Are and The Last Samuri who have run well there in the past. Or classier types like Minella Rocco or Blaklion. Most punters will not have heard of Virgilio; indeed, it was only when he caught my eye with his weight of 10.7 and his good trainer that I dived a bit more deeply into his form.

Skelton appears to have held the horse in pretty high regard when Virgilio was younger (he’s 9).  He won his first two races in Britain (Skelton has had him since the horse came from France), the first a Class 3 handicap by 12 lengths, and the second, a Class 2 Handicap (at Aintree) by 6 lengths (fav both times).  He started the next season with his hat-trick win, again at Aintree in another Class 2 Handicap before moving up to Grade 2 in the Relkeel at Cheltenham where he started 5/1 third fav but was pulled up, the trainer citing a breathing problem (Skelton was later to say the horse would not go back to Cheltenham as it was not his track).

Virgilio then dropped back into handicap company at Aintree, carrying joint top weight of 11.12 off a handicap mark of 148 to finish 5th of 22, keeping on toward the finish. Since then, he has not run again over hurdles. Virgilio finished that 2015/16 season by making his debut over fences, easily winning a Class 4 at Warwick by 13 lengths and he began the following season with a Class 2 victory at Newton Abbott.

Returning to Grade 2 company for the first time since the Relkeel, he was 7/4 and was pulled up in the three-horse Rising Stars Novices Chase won by Frodon. The Racing Post analyst simply says that the horse ran as if amiss (it was his first run right handed in Britain). The Skeltons kept the faith with another Grade 2 run at Newbury next time where Virgilio made a couple of crucial errors, although he would not have beaten the impressive winner Clan Des Obeaux.

Next time saw him back right handed at Kempton where he finished a fortunate second in the Kauto Star the day Might Bite fell when well clear at the last.  He challenged Might Bite again next time in his first Grade 1 outing, the Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree where he was well beaten in 3rd, although he had a very stiff task at levels with Might Bite and Whisper who was second. Might Bite beat him 20 lengths and Whisper beat him 18.

Virgilio finished last season with yet another run at Aintree, and another win over 3m 1f, by 7 lengths, his jumping that day suggesting he was really getting the hang of the chasing game.  North to Aintree again in November last year for his seasonal debut and back down in trip to 2m 4f, he ran quite poorly and then pulled up 5 weeks’ later at Doncaster back over 3 miles. He was strong in the market that day in December; in the lengthy lay off since then, Virgilio has had wind surgery

On the face of his limited fencing experience, especially in big fields, and his form this season, I can see why 100/1 is available. But in view of his age and what still looks untapped potential, allied to the faith the Skeltons appear to have in him, and the fact that he’s been operated on for his wind, I think he’s well worth an each way bet on the NRNB basis. There’s also the fact that the flat track seems to suit him well; he’s won 3 from 6 at Aintree (NB: for those who are occasional punters, Aintree’s Grand National course is a separate one from its ‘standard’ course which is known as The Mildmay Course, the one on which Virgilio has appeared so far).

His jumping style, to my eye, looks well suited to the Grand National fences. Stamina is another question. He’s by Denham Red, the sire of Un De Sceaux, a 16f to 20f top-notcher, but also the sire of Ouzbeck, who won the Summer National over 3m 4f at Uttoxeter in 2010.  As noted, Virgilio has won over 3m 1f; the only other winning progeny of his dam Liesse De Marbeuf, did not race over as far as 3 miles in Britain or Ireland.

“Recommended bet”: each way Virgilio for the Randox Health Grand National at 100/1 with Bet Bet365 who offer 1/4 odds first five and money back if the horse does not run.

Poor horse, I hope he didn’t suffer too much. Although if he was found dead in the afternoon hopefully it meant he went down quickly without much of a struggle. RIP Genie.