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Ok so there’s a lot of negatives around Faugheen that make 2/1 an insane price.
Age – on the decline, past his peak
Last run – jezki isn’t the same horse anymore. Yes they were all respectable horses but none would compete in the champion hurdle. Overhyped win IMO
Fitness record – hasn’t got the best fitness record and this would be a big concern taking its toll on an older horse.
Statistics – a lot of Cheltenham statistics are against him.
Buveur d’air – I think he deserves more credit and I would have him current favourite for this. I think he’s underrated by people because hurdles was a second thought last season but he couldn’t have been more impressive. I think the horse is a monster. And let’s not forget he could be even better this season!!
Just noticed that the time recorded by both Faugheen and Buveur D’Air in winning their respective Champion Hurdles, according to the racing post, is exactly the same at 3m 50.9 Seconds. How strange! I agree with the comments about Faugheen even making it to the festival. If he gets there fit he goes off favourite but that’s a big if.
Lads, Jezki, Campeador and Swamp Fox are all rated above 150. You can say that maybe one of them wasn’t at their best but to suggest that all 3 weren’t at their best is a stretch. Faugheen battered them all and ran to a mark of at least 170 after 2 years away. I take the point that a horse prone to injury may not make it to the festival; but if he does he should be odds on..
Lads, Jezki, Campeador and Swamp Fox are all rated above 150. You can say that maybe one of them wasn’t at their best but to suggest that all 3 weren’t at their best is a stretch. Faugheen battered them all and ran to a mark of at least 170 after 2 years away. I take the point that a horse prone to injury may not make it to the festival; but if he does he should be odds on..
I think BD ran to 170 last season aswell and could be even better still. BD better value for me
Ok so there’s a lot of negatives around Faugheen that make 2/1 an insane price.
Age – on the decline, past his peak
Last run – jezki isn’t the same horse anymore. Yes they were all respectable horses but none would compete in the champion hurdle. Overhyped win IMO
Fitness record – hasn’t got the best fitness record and this would be a big concern taking its toll on an older horse.
Statistics – a lot of Cheltenham statistics are against him.
Buveur d’air – I think he deserves more credit and I would have him current favourite for this. I think he’s underrated by people because hurdles was a second thought last season but he couldn’t have been more impressive. I think the horse is a monster. And let’s not forget he could be even better this season!!
Yes age is a factor, but until he shows he is in decline you cant assume because his age that he is, he certainly didint show it. If faugheen wasnt in the race what would we be saying about jezki?
Campeador is a GOOD horse and if his jumping hadnt let him down he would have won the fred winter and the bar one, hes young and is definitely on the upgrade, faugheen made him look like he was racing megalala and thats the point im making about he isnt showing to be slowing down
The oNly negative thats certain at this point is his record shows hes probably 50/50 to make it to cheltenhamI wouldnt take the 7/4-9/4 either
Buveur dair has room for inprovement, hopefully they both get there!!
I wouldn’t be laying on the basis he might not turn up due to a setback. Mullins said he has been ready and fighting fit since May. Had he been battling and just managed to get him there for the Morgiana there’d be some merit in thinking he could break down again, which, of course, he could and I would not back him, but I wouldn’t be a layer simply on a fitness basis. But, yes, 2/1 is daft.
Although there is 3 yrs in age between them Faugheen has only run once more than BD so he still has very little mileage on the clock and by all accounts he was fully ready to run from May/June of last year (they were even looking at going to France to run him).
In hindsight thinking he would badly need the run after 600+ days off the course probably wasn’t really an accurate assessment of where his general fitness level was at but one could fully expect him to tighten up as a result of having an actual race and officially the performance was rated at 172 (4lbs below his best) and still 3lbs above the career best of BD.
Yes it would be reasonable to expect BD to improve again this year but by how much will he and more importantly by how much will he need to (a 4.5L beating of MTOY is not going to cut it this year) and whilst Jezki is clearly not the force of old I would have no problem rating him around the mid 150s and thus on a similar level to MTOY (who only seems to reserve his best form for the Champion Hurdle itself).
For me BD’s best chance of retaining his crown in March is if Faugheen no shows.
Defi defo hurdling?
He’s an absolute superstar in the making. Love the horse
This current talk of Faugheen v BD will make Defi the forgotten horse at a beautiful price.
Just took MTOY E/W @ 66’s which is a bit of a silly price to be fair given his past record.
Getting on a bit now, but no surprise to see him run well again if he lines up again.
Me and a couple of others thought the same last year on here. We got 50s but in the idea that he finishes in the places.
The horse always runs well but never wins.
16.5/1 for a place is a good bet.
DDS looked small at Ascot today. You’d expect a better performance next time but he really does lack the scope of his peers.
I must say I’m struggling to see beyond the first two in the market here as a winner but given the odds and the uncertainty around Faugheen I think Melon might be the value bet at this point but do you think Mullins would have them line up in the same race?
Yeah, definitely. Last time Faugheen won the Champion Hurdle Arctic Fire came 2nd and Hurricane Fly came 3rd. This year I’d say the plan will be Faugheen, Melon and Arctic Fire for The Champion Hurdle. There are only 2 graded options for Hurdlers; Champion Hurdle and Stayers. Mullins has Nichols Canyon and Penhill for The Stayers and the Champion Hurdle will be his priority.
7/2 buveur d’air for the champion hurdle is the best bet for about 5 years.
Faugheen has zero chance of running at its peak in Cheltenham. 1) because he’s had too many fitness issues and 2) because he will be 10 years old.I’ve said it before BD is easily a 170 horse and hasn’t reached its peak yet. I am in disbelief it’s not favourite. It’s an even better horse this year!
FILL YOUR BOOTS GUYS!
If Barry wanted to he could have won by 25 lengths today if he fancied it
The problem with what your saying is this, from now to march is 4 months, so the rating and figures faugheen ran to are not going to diminish anything in the space of 4 months, if he improves any sort from the first race which is obviously subject to this bounce nonsense, then BVD is going to have to improve again to come close to him, also i dont understand why fitness would be an issue if he does make it there in march??
The second problem i feel with BVD is, yes BVD has improved from his novice hurdle campaign of course, as has altior, as has min
If you asked willie mullins who would win a 2m hurdles race faugheen or min i think hed laugh in your face,literally. Almost the same way rich ricci laughed off who was the better annie power or faugheen, he dismissed her as if he was talking about a 140 horse
If min was running in this, he would be well equipped of beating BVD as would AP
Obviously faugheen is sensitive, will he get there? Who knows
At the prices now BVD is by far the better bet than faugheen which i agree with you about though
Nothing above is certain its just my untrained speculative opinion LOL BVD could have improved more than enough to win it, but one things for sure, if faugheen comes, he will need to
Lets just hope for the race that they both make it, if one dosent appear ittl be a rout for whichever is left!
I disagree that Buveur D’Air will have to improve to get close to Faugheen as they’re already closely matched on figures, including those posted at Cheltenham, and the younger horse is the likelier of the two to progress significantly between now and March.
Min wouldn’t get close to either.
Granted decent ground next spring, I think Buveur D’Air can put in an unbeaten 180 by close of play this season.
Yep completely agree Mark.
Everyone thinks Faugheen is the beacon because he’s a proven champion. So is Buveur d’air?
Both have won the champion hurdle – was Faugheen a year much stronger than BD year? Not much difference if you ask me. Faugheen has no chance of being at his peak and BD has reached his peak. He beats Faugheen in any scenario. If we had peak Faugheen I’d still back BD. Maybe on last years champion hurdle run no but BD is better again this year. That performance today was mid 170’s if Geraghty wanted to push him.
When he’s a triple champion hurdle winner maybe people will finally realise a peak BD is better than peak Faugheen. And he hasn’t even got to face peak Faugheen.
If I’m wrong give me as much stick as you want but if BD gets to Cheltenham uninterrupted he will win with a bit in hand.
People who think Faugheen wins are just sentimental betting.
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