Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2018

From my blog . . .

I remember the big race of the day at Cheltenham as the Massey Ferguson, which followed the Mackeson (now the Betvictor Gold Cup) as one of the big pre-Christmas races.

Tricky as it always is, I have great affection for the race and always have a bet in it. Going through the runners, nothing jumped out as a great value bet.

There’s plenty support for Rather Be, but he seems pretty short. Many cite how well he was travelling last time when brought down 4 out behind Baron Alco. But 4 out at Cheltenham leaves almost a third of the race – arguably the most crucial third of it – still to be run. He might well win this, but the price holds no appeal.

War Sound won by a fair margin last time out at Aintree, logging his highest ever Racing Post Rating, but I’m not sure he had that much left at the end. The hill could find him out.

Guitar Pete won this last year (after the almost certain winner broke down badly). He’s been to Cheltenham a few times, and usually runs well. He was too late on the scene last time and I suspect that might be the case again here.

I like Foxtail Hill’s enthusiasm, but he’s not consistent these days.

I think Baron Alco will go very close again and could well follow up his November win here. A fine jumper and front runner, he got a really good ride last time, is wonderfully consistent, and probably still improving.

But so is my main selection, Mr Medic. He finished last season with a victory in December at Ascot where he registered his highest Racing Post Rating to that date. He obviously had a problem because he was off for almost a year before returning at Ascot to increase that previous high rating by 8lbs.

He was most impressive in that victory, settling well after being headstrong going to the first. His jumping was superb throughout and a similar round will give him a major advantage here.

Also, he was not expected by connections to win that day, which was reflected in his SP of 20/1. Trainer Walford (who won the Becher last week) said that the Ascot race was meant to be Mr Medic’s prep for this. You’d imagine that Walford had left a bit to work on and if that’s the case, the horse should be straighter here.

The potential downside of that is that Mr Medic could bounce here. Also, I’m a wee bit concerned that his two best performances have come at Ascot, a right handed course, though he has won left handed.

All in all, I believe he is the value in the race at 10/1 (in from Thursday’s 12/1). He’s one of the neatest and most economical jumpers of a fence I’ve seen and unless I damn him with the commentator’s curse, his jumping could be the deciding factor in this.

I’ll be having a saver on Baron Alco.

Cepage @ 11/1

I was gutted when Rather Be came down in the Betvictor, although too far out
to say he was an unlucky loser he was travelling really well. I’d kick myself if he dots up
in this and I didn’t have a bean on, so I’ve sided with him again.

I also think that Full Glass is just the unexposed type that could have a say
in this. His one run this side of the channel was a decent one at Ayr on, as King has stated,
ground that was as quick as he would want. The more it rains the better his chance will be. I
took the chance that the forecast would be right and backed him a few days back at 16/1 (in
Pat’s ante post thread). If enough rain gets into the ground, and there is a fair bit about, and
it’s riding on the soft side of good I think he has a very decent chance. The last 14s has just
disappeared but 12s is still a very sound e/w if he gets his conditions.

Guitar Pete to stage a repeat

Frodon is a legend and so is Byrony.
Always bet when he runs and had some at 8s.
Beautiful round of jumping again… runner up was fantastic too.

What a combination!
Fabulous race.

I see now that you had him too Nathan, glad to see a good few TRFers were on him

Good tune out of guitar but Frodon was awesome