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Not surprisingly after today, the very likeable Master Dee, and the runner up, Ballykan have been very popular.
I could see me siding with Master Dee on the day, but in a race where I’ve not had one placed for about 40 year, I’ll take it easy a bit.
Just a couple stand out just now, though plenty in there I like as well…..
Ballybolley – Looks on a nice enough mark, and certainly won nicely at Market Rasen in the Autumn, suggesting there was more to come. Not knocked about last time at Kempton, certainly looked to be out for a stroll, and with NRNB BOG available, that will do for me.
Diamond King – Lobbing away in this last year, when badly hampered and brought to a standstill. On my shortlist ever since. 25’s available, but not NRNB, so I’ll wait and see with him. Although no money down yet, my #1 definitely. Close to taking the 20’s NRNB
Ballyboley 33’s ew NRNB BOG (not bet yet)
There’s a horse running in this who owes me nothing; Bouvreuil. I’ve backed him twice each way at the festival and both times he’s placed. A real Spring Horse who always runs well. His handicap is similar to last year and he’s Paul Nicholls best chance of a winner.
Willie Boy is the main one I’ve been thinking about long-term for this race.
Obviously you have the Venetia angle – she loves the Plate and always lines up a couple of live ones for it each season. Much more than that though. Willie Boy’s win at Newbury two starts ago was an unreal sectional performance – he went off much much too fast (fellow front-runner finished tailed-off) but still had enough to repel two closers given much more efficient rides. He is a lot better than his mark. You can forgive him for disappointing next time after such a mammoth effort.
Sadly he isn’t quite as much of a price as I’d hoped. I was hoping for some lazy 33/1 from a couple of firms but I see 365 are as short at 16/1, which is much more realistic. Feels like I’ll bet him at some point.
De Plotting Shed is obviously interesting too. He is rated 143 in Ireland so Phil Smith is likely to give him the finger with 146+ to keep him out of the Close Bros. He could well run here.
Yeah Soldier, can’t disagree with De Plotting Shed. Be betting him wherever he goes, think he’s primed for something. Would have given him a word here, but with all the multiple entries in these races, decided not to waffle on as much as usual, as I would just be repeating myself lol.
For VTC…..Reliably informed he has this years renewal by the Nads
13/16 age 9 or below
15/17 ran at track
27/29 rated 142 or below
18/20 carried 10-11 or below
20/20 won class 3 or above
19/25 competed at prev festival
18/25 1st 4 LTO
7/27 Ridden by conditional
27/27 beaten fav lto…..all beaten.
Headgear…no winners last 14 runnings/47 horses tried.
5/5 at least 42 day breakAbove from gaultstats…….
Whether your for or against stats/trends,they can be a really useful tool in trying to determine which types of horses win these really competitive handicaps.In OUR favour is that these races have been run same time year,sometimes over decades,on similar ground,under the same weight conditions many times.
Just the 94 to browse through over morning coffee…..
From that lot just picked out 1 that is the type that interests me.
Sametegal 141…..9 yr old with very few miles on the clock,previous festival form,all his runs this season have been on softer than ideal,he could improve dramatically IF we get drying ground.The rating will be lowest since 3rd in the 2013 Trimph,suggesting we have a horse with some back class.Nicholls has a dire record in this,but like all stats that will be broken some day,also entered in Ultima day 1, the grand national further ahead.
I never have this race by the Nads Flyers lol. Young Spartacus seems a long time ago now. I’ll watch the market for that pair I like, but really, I should leave it alone.
Thanks for those stats, I’ll definitely bear them in mind, though at this stage The Storyteller “any race” bet might be my best chance of stopping the rot.
Romain De Senam odds too big. I expect him to be one of the faves on some decent ground once punters realise he’ll be better off with Tully East at the weights.
I really fancy BOUVREUIL for this. I have taken 20/1 EW NRNB and have stuck him load of EW Multipules
This is my best longshot of the festival.
He ran a decent race last year finishing third behind two very well handicapped horses in Road of Respect and Baron Alco. He is now 3 pounds lower and looks to have a better prep compared to last year were he had a minor setback after xmas.
Im all over him and really fancy him to run a huge race. The trainer also seems to be hitting form again which is also a positive
Good luck all
Vtc, not sure if The Storyteller goes here or for the Ultima (or even one of the novice races) but I want to be with him if he goes for a handicap. He’s roughly 14/1 NRNB for both races and I could see him shortening quite a bit from that.
Said on W Hills racing radio today that Kings Socks is innit to winnit so I’ve had a huge bet by my standards; 50 pence ew at 14/1 !
Am all over Diamond King for this. As you said VTC, although was too far out to to tell how he would have fared, he was going well enough before getting hampered in this last year. Is now on a 1lb lower mark from when he hacked up here in the coral cup over hurdles. Surely laid out to recoup losses in this after going off favourite last year. Am on at 25’s and will keep topping up I think. This is my main bet of the entire festival. Can’t see him going for the coral cup again off that mark, so this surely is his target, and with that performance in the coral cup long ingrained in the memory, a bit more luck in running, this has to hit the frame. Am surprised he is still the price he is….
Yeah Jamie, he’s got to have a chance for sure, but still not played here. My record in it is that bad, that I might just wait till final decs. The Storyteller is heading here, so that maybe doesn’t speak volumes for Diamond Kings chances, but I would still be tempted, and 20’s NRNB is still fair, as is the 11’s, same terms for The Storyteller. I’d be happy with either obviously.
Diamond King running Coral Cup according to Gordon at a preview last night.
Tully East some bet on the morning IMO when the prices get very competitive (be bigger than 8s I’d think).
So, the Irish moaned so much about their handicap marks…The Storyteller wins on handicap debut here.
WD, he jumped great.Just as well Russell got him straightened out up the hill enough to hang on!
Thanks Greenasgrass, a few anxious moments when he started to hang but thankfully Davy got him straightened up.
Looking through some of the threads just now, it looks like plenty of you had a good week, looks like VTC in particular had a great week so well done all
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