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2017 Stayers Hurdle

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  • #1273466
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 6114

    Just watched Yanworth again. He’s run quite an odd race. You could almost say he’s gone in snatches. He didn’t pick up the bridle until turning into the straight first time and Geraghty didn’t have much trouble settling him off a long rein. He kind of dropped out again going down the back but without coming under any pressure at all then picked them up easily as they went toward the turn. Geraghty has urged him for the first time turning into the home straight, but this looked a tactical move to block the horse on his inner.

    When he came under pressure properly he seemed set to respond quickly but then had to dig quite deep but without looking committed to it. The way he stepped nimbly aside after the last and the way he passed the post suggests to me that he was keeping quite a bit for himself. After that, I’m not so sure I’d trust him until there is more evidence that he is straightforward: he didn’t look it to me today.

    Geraghty said: “I was never sure I was going to get past until I flew the last and he battled well from there.

    “He is very comfortable at that trip, but I just feel he would be more comfortable at a staying trip. He needs to improve a lot for it on form to be with the best.”

    King said: “It is a huge relief. He has not been on the grass and one or two of our proper jump horses in the last week or two have just been found out.

    “He has done a lot of work but there is a fair bit of improvement to come. Just talking to AP (McCoy) and Barry he might well go up (in trip) and we could look at the Long Walk.

    “That was five minutes of hell. I thought he was held between the last two, but he has dug in.

    “He has not had much practice, as in his first four races over hurdles he had not come off the bridle. Physically he will come on for that.

    #1273478
    Avatar photoGladiateur
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    • Total Posts 4749

    After that, I’m not so sure I’d trust him until there is more evidence that he is straightforward: he didn’t look it to me today.

    Interesting observations, Steeplechasing. Yanworth arguably tried to duck out in his race on trials day in January (although it may have been due to inexperience); perhaps there is a slight doubt concerning his temperament.

    #1274101
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    I put UNOWHATIMEANHARRY up in the ante post competition about a
    month ago, at 25/1 with Coral. I thought I better stick him in here too before he
    runs in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday. He’s still 20/1 with Ladbrokes, and I
    think that’s way too big for a horse that has improved with every run since being
    sent to Harry Fry a year ago, has won 5 on the bounce,

    Great start for you there BigG. Hopefully he gets there in one piece for you. :good:

    #1274447
    Avatar photocharlie87
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    Backed Uknowhatimeanharry in doubles and trebles at 14/1 alongside AP and Douvan. Hope they all make it there. Was very impressed with his performance at Newbury

    #1274484
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15046

    Good luck with those bets Charlie. I know you’re with me on Ptit Zig for The World Hurdle, but that performance on Friday, has tempered my enthusiasm somewhat, I think that was a very nice horse we seen at Newbury, and I think you’re on the right one now :good:

    #1274736
    Avatar photoBigG
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    I put UNOWHATIMEANHARRY up in the ante post competition about a
    month ago, at 25/1 with Coral. I thought I better stick him in here too before he
    runs in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday. He’s still 20/1 with Ladbrokes, and I
    think that’s way too big for a horse that has improved with every run since being
    sent to Harry Fry a year ago, has won 5 on the bounce,

    Great start for you there BigG. Hopefully he gets there in one piece for you. :good:

    Cheers botchy, he’s definitely one to look forward to. He ran away from them after the last
    over c/d in the Albert Bartlet this year at the festival, I think he’s even better now. I’m
    very hopeful :good:

    #1274738
    Avatar photoBigG
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    Backed Uknowhatimeanharry in doubles and trebles at 14/1 alongside AP and Douvan. Hope they all make it there. Was very impressed with his performance at Newbury

    That’s looking like a profitable bet Charlie, best of luck :good:

    #1274824
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 33112

    6/1 Unowhatimeanharry still looks excellent value. :good:
    If from Nicholls or Mullins he’d be half that.
    If the horse is good enough Fry is good enough.

    Value Is Everything
    #1274847
    stilvi
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    6/1 Unowhatimeanharry still looks excellent value. :good:
    If from Nicholls or Mullins he’d be half that.
    If the horse is good enough Fry is good enough.

    He has big pluses in terms of course form and a progressive profile but isn’t the main reason for the 6/1 the perceived lack of opposition? I should know this but last year couldn’t you get 10/1 about Thistlecrack after Newbury?

    Even with the possible jumping and jockey weakness at the current odds of the two I would rather be with Snow Falcon. I think he is the speedier of the two and consequently you would expect him to derive the most benefit from a quicker surface. I know Unowhatimeanharry’s Festival success was gained on good ground but so far that form hasn’t really been advertised and as befits a dour stayer most of his other wins have come with plenty of cut. The Sir Harry Lewis/Teenoso cross would shout soft ground and stamina. It is often said that horses can get away with running on ground they don’t particularly appreciate once. It will be interesting to see what happens if one of the obvious trials is run on unseasonably good ground.

    #1274848
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    I never watched the race on Friday, and saw a repeat of it this Afternoon. I had to look up who the trainer of Snowy Falcon was as i have never heard of the horse before.

    Looking at that replay jeez he was going well before falling. Not saying he would of won or anything but it would of been a good finish. Two very good horses there.

    #1274893
    Avatar photoBigG
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    • Total Posts 13285

    6/1 Unowhatimeanharry still looks excellent value. :good:
    If from Nicholls or Mullins he’d be half that.
    If the horse is good enough Fry is good enough.

    I think you’ve got that right Ginger. Sitting nicely in 4th going over the 3rd last, just more than
    3f out, he then put probably over 15L between him and the rest between then and 1f out, before being
    eased heavily. I think he was worth a lot more than the 6L winning margin, he’s fast enough for me.
    Harry Fry is quite a modest guy, he isn’t one to over talk his horses, so when he says “He kept improving
    last year but to come out and do it in that fashion is breathtaking” then notice has to be taken. His run
    in the long Walk at Ascot in 3 weeks will tell us more.

    #1274934
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    I should know this but last year couldn’t you get 10/1 about Thistlecrack after Newbury?

    Oh YES, you’re totally right, Stilvi. ;-)

    Value Is Everything
    #1274935
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
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    Jezki could be the fly in the ointment here. There seems a to be a fair degree of optimism among connections that he’ll make it

    #1274944
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    He has big pluses in terms of course form and a progressive profile but isn’t the main reason for the 6/1 the perceived lack of opposition? I should know this but last year couldn’t you get 10/1 about Thistlecrack after Newbury?

    Even with the possible jumping and jockey weakness at the current odds of the two I would rather be with Snow Falcon. I think he is the speedier of the two and consequently you would expect him to derive the most benefit from a quicker surface. I know Unowhatimeanharry’s Festival success was gained on good ground but so far that form hasn’t really been advertised and as befits a dour stayer most of his other wins have come with plenty of cut. The Sir Harry Lewis/Teenoso cross would shout soft ground and stamina. It is often said that horses can get away with running on ground they don’t particularly appreciate once. It will be interesting to see what happens if one of the obvious trials is run on unseasonably good ground.

    I see plenty of similarities between Unowhatimeanharry and Thistlecrack at the same stage, Stilvi. Newbury performances of equal merit with potential for more improvement. Uno’s speed is imo under-estimated, it was by no means a truly run race on Friday yet came clear (Albert Bartlett also not truly run). I backed Snow Falcon and watching from the stands thought I was unlucky. But having looked at the replay, Unowhatimeanharry was travelling almost – if not as – well and we know the British trained horse both stays very well and finds a lot for pressure. Had he been pressed by a better horse (maybe had Snow Falcon stood up) imo Uno’ would’ve pulled out an even greater performance.

    I’ve never been a believer in that old adage “horses can get away with running on ground they don’t particularly appreciate once”. Unless they’re injured in the process and don’t want to let themselves down again. There’s always a chance the difference in goings made the difference in form, but the difference in goings is not as great as the official. Friday’s improvement may have come on officially “soft with good-soft places”, but time of the first (hurdles) race on the day suggests to me it was no worse than good-soft.

    Did think about backing Snow Falcon for the Stayers/World too, on “form” 16/1 looks more than fair considering how well he was moving (even with earlier Unowhatimeanharry proviso’s). However, looked a heavy fall and I’d want to see him entered up and a probable runner before possibly getting involved. One other thing that puts me off… Noel Meade is a good trainer, but never seems in form at Cheltenham/mid-March.

    Value Is Everything
    #1275108
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Expect to hear Mullins say Faugheen is not showing as much speed at home and will be stepped up in trip.

    Value Is Everything
    #1277614
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    Good performance by Harry there. I have a feeling that Mr. Mullins holds the key to this race.

    Backed Annie Power @ 25’s to win

    #1277891
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    Out to get Harry beaten in this now.

    Added Snow Falcon @ 16’s to win

    Alongside Lil Rockerfeller @ 40’s + a small bet on Annie Power to win.

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