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Yeah there’s a worry it gets so testing that all form goes out the window and it’s left to some exposed types down the weights to slug it out.
Has two wins on heavy round Chepstow which is a plus and looks to have been lightly campaigned with this target in mind.
Beware the Bear, Bishops Road and Sir Mangan for me here. All EW.
I really liked the performance of Beware the Bear (9/1) at Newcastle. He stayed really well and had to cope with the slipping saddle. Still a bit unexposed, but the ground and trip shouldn’t be a problem. Bishops Road (12/1) was in the same race and just got beaten. He is a few pounds better off now. He already has proven himself over the distance and ground and is running off a mark of 144, instead of 154 last year. Finally I took a little gamble with Sir Mangan (33/1). The Skeltons are having a great season so far and he had two very promising runs this season. He has to prove himself over the distance though.
I’ve already backed Wild West Wind for this. Likes the track and relatively unexposed going into this off the back of a decent year. Ciaran Gethings takes off 3 pounds.
I want to back Wild West Wind too but what slightly concerns me is this will turn into an absolute slog (well I guess it always does) and i wonder if that will suit him
but the stable is in form had the second in the king george today
Have a look at his form on soft/heavy.
From my blog:
I’m about to start checking form for the TV tips for tomorrow. I’d intended tipping Silsol in the Welsh National but did not expect him to be this price. With Paddy Power you can back him each way at 40/1 to 1/5th odds five places. If you have a Betfair account and are happy to bet win only (or have a separate place only bet) you can, at the time of writing, get on at 70 (69/1). There’s only about £15 available at that price so you’ll need to be quick. In most cases, I’d say take SP on Betfair these days, but I think Nicholls will fancy his chances with this, and Bryony Frost rides, which will help attract punters tomorrow.
Silsol caught my eye one day at Carlisle when beating Maximiser and Seeyouatmidnight; he looked just the type to pick up a decent long distance handicap in heavy ground and that’s what he gets tomorrow. He was off more than a year after beating Native River over hurdles but returned a month ago at Haydock over hurdles and ran a typical prep-type race being prominent for a long time behind all the way winner Sam Spinner.
Silsol’s chasing experience is limited but the upside of that is he is rated 8lbs lower over fences than over hurdles. And the talented Bryony Frost takes off 5lbs. On breeding, he’s the only offspring of his sire and dam to try this trip and he is the one in the family who has won over farthest – 3m2f. You can never say something will stay until it stays but there is no evidence that Silsol will not stay and at the price I’m more than willing to take the chance.
I’ve had Beware The Bear at bigger odds but didn’t expect him to run
Final Nudge as a likely placer, possible winner ( though possibly lacks a bit of class )
Vintage Clouds, for whom I’d prefer better trainer form but I cannot agree with the Racing Post summary that he needs to prove his stamina for such a contest. Split Blaklion and Gas Line Boy at Haydock, ran well over this distance at Ayr but just failed to get home over that four miles. And all before his actual 7th birthday.I’ve seen Vintage Clouds tipped and I like his age but he has a poor strike rate for me.
I have him pegged as a seconditis horse and with 3 wins and 9 seconds, the stats back that feeling up.
Rock The Kasbah seems friendless but I’ll stay with him.
I’ll stick Vintage Clouds in for a forecast.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For me three stand out at current prices, with three others worthy of a saver:
Wild West Wind 12/1 Progressive, suited by very soft ground and has looked a stayer at slightly shorter trips. Could be much more to come now stepping up. Won the Welsh Grand National Trial (3m) here last time out. Not many runs over fences but seems to jump well enough which can help with inexperienced sorts. Trainer in very good form. What’s not to like? imo Should be favourite.
Vintage Clouds 14/1 Looked an out and out one paced plodder last season – including at marathon trips – too slow to win any race. Always like a good strike rate, but there doesn’t look much if anything wrong with his attitude, especially this season. Form took a step forward on reappearance over just 3m1f and away from testing ground too! Then 7 lengths second to subsequent Caspian Caviar fav/2nd Clan Des Obeaux who gave 7 lbs and won with a bit in hand. But Vintage Clouds ran an excelent race considering it was over what should’ve been an inadequate 2m6f on Haydock’s heavy. Could find a return to a thorough test of stamina bringing further progression. Stable are in better form now too. One winner and 5 horses beaten less than three lengths (two by under half length) from 8 runners yesterday.
Bishops Road 16/1 These are his conditions, has been dropped 10 lbs since this time last year. On same mark as last win in Haydock Grand National trial in similar conditions. Ran his best race since that win last time out in the Rehearsal Chase over just short of 3m. This trip should suit better. Bit concerned about his jumping in a big field, but can’t have everything spot on with a 16/1 shot.
Had three savers:
Beware The Bear 11/1, beat Bishops Road 2 1/4 lengths last time and has a 4 lb penalty. But that doesn’t give half the story. Beware The Bear’s tack was going back and reportedly difficult to ride. Lost ground and looked beaten before staying on powerfully. No knowing how much ground lost was due to the tack problem (possible the fast pace suited one that came from further back)… But it’s also possible it was a severe handicap and warrents a saver. Especially as the way he finished suggests this trip should suit and Hendo is in cracking form.
Folsom Blue 10/1 Doesn’t on the face of it have anything in hand of his current mark, but this is his first chase start after moving from the rarely in form Mouse Morris to the invariably in form master that is Gordon Elliott. Won his first hurdles start so improvment could easily be forthcoming now switched back to fences.
Rock The Kasbah 13/1 Trainer isn’t in the best of form (plenty of placed efforts but fair losing run) which is why he’s only a saver. Up 7 lbs for last time out/reappearance victory at this course (course specialist) in October. Looked beaten before staying on (3m) in the manner which suggests is crying out for this extreme test. Proven on the ground too.
(effectively a main bet @ 4/1 with a 3/1 saver)
Have had the winner in 5 of the last 6 runnings.
Value Is EverythingAs I was hoping for above, someone (Paddy Power) did stick their head above the parapet
and wen’t 33s on SIR MANGAN. I’ve taken that, and along with FOLSOM BLUE
that will do for me. If your horse doesn’t like it knee deep, look away now
I’ve always felt this race requires an out and out stayer who can go even further than the 3m 5f here.
First horse to look at though has to be Rock The Kasbah who just loves the place. He has a touch of class but this will be a gruelling test and I feel he may just be outstayed in the end. 11/1 with Skybet and 6 places isn’t a bad bet though and I can see why so many on here like him for this.
It would take some effort droll vicente off top weight but he’s a duel national winner (albeit Scottish) and loves these big field races. 20/1 again with skybet isn’t a bad price and he could easily place here.
Final Nudge is another interesting one as he likes the mud and can battle but he does have his stamina to prove. I could definitely see him running a big one.
However, I’ve gone with Chase the Spud. I liked his chances for the Aintree national based on that run last time over 4m 1f but they are running him here. We know he can battle and he has his ground. I think he’s a solid each way bet at 10/1 as I can’t see 6 horses finishing in front of him here.
Chase the Spud @ 10/1 each way
Race rescheduled for January 6. Entries revert to the original entry stage of November. I need a few more coffees so apologies for having to ask ‘What does that mean for ante post bets placed before Monday last? Do they stand or are they void?’ (I’m guessing they stand…?)
PlungerRace rescheduled for January 6. Entries revert to the original entry stage of November. I need a few more coffees so apologies for having to ask ‘What does that mean for ante post bets placed before Monday last? Do they stand or are they void?’ (I’m guessing they stand…?)
PlungerVoid
Thanks Ham. Betfair seem to be working through my bets in stages, some voided already. I had singles and doubles so I’ll see how they end up treating them.
Plunger
Corals re ante post bets…Coral’s Simon Clare added: “All ante-post bets struck with Coral on the race since the original entry stage will remain valid, and any ante post bets settled as losers at subsequent confirmation and forfeit stages will now be revived.
“Given the unique set of circumstances however, Coral will as an ex-gratia gesture allow customers to void their ante post bets if they wish to do so due to the rescheduling of the race, and they have until midnight on December 31 to contact our customer service team and let them know. After that date all ante post bets will stand all in run or not.”
Strange way to do it, should just be void and let people decide as the complexion of the race could totally change
Well it’s take 2, and of my initial choices FOLSUM BLUE has made it
through to the rescheduled date, whilst SIR MANGAN stays warm and cosy in his stable.
My stake was returned for both, and having had FOLSUM at 11s, I’ve had to settle for
10s this time around. I think he will relish the ground and distance, and (fingers
crossed) if Elliot does send him over I’m expecting his odds to take a dive.
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