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Only a fortnight away, on the 26th April, and a cracking race in prospect if a lot of them stand their ground.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/195/punchestown/2017-04-26/673095
No proper market formed yet, but my early shortlist would be……
Carlingford Lough
Champagne West
Lord Scoundreal
Noble Endeavour
Otago Trail
ZabanaCertainly not a race to go mad on with a rushed early bet for the sake of it, unless one looks really “wrong” when the market opens, but at this very early stage, I’d be interested to see if they underestimate Carlingford Lough again.
Coneygree looked in good nick round Ffos Las yesterday and at the prices he makes the most appeal for me. 7/1 generally.
Venture, I might follow you in on Carlingford as well. He was my biggest mistake of last year in this. He is definitely continually underrated, and I stupidly paid too much attention to his big odds and ignored him. I like the fact that they didn’t send him to Aintree as top weight as well
He’s still overpriced at 14’s Buckers, and very pleased to see him taken out of The Irish National today.
I’ve put him up here many a time, and he’s one of those horses who’s been very good to me, I’d love to see him do it one more time, as he’s not getting any younger.
That 16’s was a steal, and as I said, I hoped they would introduce him to the market at a price, and I wasn’t disappointed. Assuming all is well with him, that 14’s is still big, and I’m tempted to top up.
I’ve also taken the 16s Bobby. I put him up last year, and said he was an e/w steal
with Betvictor at 20/1 as they were still showing 8 runners ante post when most had
already cut the field to 7. I had a good return off of that, I can’t be bothered hunting
through the records on here, but it’s in there somewhere. Like last year, there are quite
a few of the fancied horses that have hard a fairly hard end of season campaign, and
Carlingford will again be going into this fresh. I can see him going off about 6/1.
Coneygree would be interesting if he turned up, but there’s no knowing what kind of state
he will be in. He might be fit, but he won’t be race fit. Having said that, if he can turn
the clock back, he would be a good thing. It’s an interesting race.Graham I can confirm you did, because I did too at the 20’s, and I forgot to put him up for some reason, I think I thought I already had, and I had to congratulate you through gritted teeth, knowing I also had him myself FFS lol
Well belated congratulations to you Bob, and it’s good I brought it up as it will
have helped you get it out of your system after keeping a lid on it for the past year
You’ve more than kept that up this year, and had some cracking successes at HUGE prices.
I hope Carlingford can see you finishing off the jumps season on a high
I’ve been raging ever since haaaaa!
Cheers Graham, it would be great so see him do it, and it would be great to go out on a high for sure, been a great year. To be honest, need a break though, and looking forward to a proper break between Punchestown and Royal Ascot………..get outside and see the world haha
OUTLANDER 16/1
This race chuck up strange results while on form Sizing John to many favs get beat in this race.And for me OUTLANDER for me with Empire of Dirt and Sub Lieutenant both running at Aintree and Cheltenham feel my horse be more fresher.And i ignore last run this horse hates Cheltenham.Winner here before can win this race.
Good luck Darren with Outlander. The 16’s is a nice price, and you could easily say that the 12’s is still too big now.
Real shame that Carlingford isn’t going, and this was probably his last chance at a big pot. He’s not getting any younger, and I can only assume he’s met with some sort of setback. If he does get an entry for another race though, and all is well with him, I’ll take notice.
I’m very tempted by Outlander as well, and also Zabana, who was dynamite at this meeting last year, but at 16’s, I’ll give Champagne West another go. I still have his Thyestes win as the best performance of this season, and if in the same mood (and his jumping holds up) then that is a huge price. The jumping wouldn’t actually be my main concern, I’m more worried about the way some of the stables horses have ran over the last month.
I’ll also have a saver on Zabana.
Although they are predicting some showery weather for the week ahead, currently the ground is good, good to yeilding in places (with selective watering) and unless they get some proper rain there I don’t see it being soft enough for the Bradstocks to let Coneygree take his chance.
Outlander a big ew bet for me. 3 places at 12s.
And max 7 runners. With zabana out and the market not reacting.Irish cavalier and flemenstar no hopers. As much as I’d like to see him win, i can’t have Coneygree what so ever in this race. And agree with the above post he may not even take his chance with the likely ground.
Champagne West although over priced with 3 places at 16s he won’t get his ground and barring falls i can’t see him finishing infront of outlander. Djakadam or sizing john.
The front 2 are solid but don’t represent any value at the current odds. And both had a hard race at cheltenham. And Djakadam would be wanting an ease in the ground conditions to be seen at his best.Did the same myself Rocky, and Outlander 12’s for me as well each way, and I still like Champagne West as well. Was already on him each way, and have topped up again at the 16’s.
I think Sizing John will more or less hack up but beyond that have no clue how the rest of the race is going to pan out. I agree with rocky that Coneygree might be a no show – rain is forecast but there are going to be northerlies all week so it may all dump on Donegal before it gets a chance to reach Punchestown.
I don’t think I’ll be betting much this week- with the prospect of some horses that looked good all winter suddenly looking average on late spring ground, others whose seasons have finally taken the edge off them mentally or physically, possibly some who have picked up tiny niggles that aren’t even showing up on the gallops at home, and the big 2 trainers presumably firing in all the nags they have that still have 4 legs attached, my chances of picking winners this week are slim!
But as it’s the last week of jumps proper, I’ll have some sod-it-anyway bets for fun so I have picked (don’t laugh…ah OK go ahead and have a giggle) Irish Cavalier 33-1 and Flemenstar 50-1 (didn’t bother opening new accounts for better prices). Both E/W to 3 places (thanks for the headsup on Zabana this morning rocky).
I appreciate that on current form, for either of them to place all the others will have to no show or trip over, and even then it’s not a given that they will a) start and b) finish
Good luck with your proper bets everyone
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