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Ham, something has to win these Group 1 races, no matter how poor they may be. Any 3YO group 1 is only really as good as the standard of the generation is overall.
Anthony Oppenheimer was at pains early on to say that Cracksman was no Golden Horn. Gosden echoed that but also pointed out that he might not need to be.
I already went through the official ratings to show how little there was between the top colts this year. When figures are that tight, they are either all good, or all moderate. Almost always, the latter is true.
Anyway, the horse isn’t in the Arc and the general consensus is that it’s because he can’t beat Enable. That tells its own story for me and where is the Derby runner with a good shout in this year’s Arc?
Over to you.
I guess its early days to rate the derby form, but it dosent seem all that bad to me just yet
And i still feel if you factor in runs against each other and results i stil cant fathom why capri is backable at 25/1+ im assuming his participation might still be questionable, obrien stated (“would come on for the run”) because if he shows on all known form he must have a chance to place atleast…. thats probably the only horse from the derby with a shout
So yes i agree partially with what youv said on that basis,
Who will moore be on? Wont be idaho,com,seventh heaven, Cant see winter turning up (surely he wouldnt even if she did), cant be oosg as much as i like the horse, can it?…
Highland reel likely if it turns up good?
Capri if it turns up softer?Looking forward to this…
Thanks Degaussed. I have an average price of 55/1 so will likely leave it at that. Got some long prices for Brametot too, plus mmall on Order of St George at 70/1 prior to the Curragh romp. I’d reckoned Enable might see this as one race too many but that may be a forlorn hope. Anyway I can lay off to cover stakes on my selections if they line up on the day.
Looking at how Cloth of Stars is heading in the betting (46/1 on BFair) I’d almost think he wasn’t going to run. Maybe he’s just not fancied by the UK punters. I have a small interest at big odds. Not making a big case for him winning, though I think he’s got a chance, but I’d like a run for my money! Anyone heard anything re his being a definite starter?
On 11th September, Fabre was quoted thus, regarding Cloth Of Star’s latest race:-
“I was happy considering he hadn’t run since May and the ground was against him. The Arc is the plan.”
Having said that, I lost money on Cloth Of Stars earlier in the season, when Andre Fabre said that the horse was definitely coming to Newmarket for the Guineas meeting. In the end the horse stayed in France and won the Prix Ganay instead.
Who can you trust to live up to their word?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bit worrying Steve. I’d have thought after the relatively ‘easy’ Prix Foy run he’d be sitting around 16/1 or do. Uneasy on Betfair for the past week.
Who will moore be on? Wont be idaho,com,seventh heaven, Cant see winter turning up (surely he wouldnt even if she did), cant be oosg as much as i like the horse, can it?…
Highland reel likely if it turns up good?
Capri if it turns up softer?Looking forward to this…
I think Capri. If the ground is soft- and I think some rain is forecast- I think Highland Reel will not run and be saved to bag a different G1.
All the other Ballydoyle colts will run, I think. It’s a shot to nothing- they haven’t got big enough reputations to lose (even Capri’s Irish Derby on soft+Leger=dangerously close to “future NH Sire”) and therefore don’t risk harming their stud fees and if one of them got lucky and won, would only enhance it.
The more horses they run, the more chance Enable has of meeting trouble in running, or at least being forced wide if the Ballydoyle pack can hog the rail. I agree that trying to make it a slogfest may be their best chance of finding a chink in her armour (and also deal with Ulysses), so I expect Seventh Heaven – only a mare and has won nothing of note so comparatively worthless to the business- to be the cannon fodder up front at 8-10f pace. When she tires or if she’s slowly away, CoM takes over then gets out of the way to let a strong finishing Capri or OOSG past. Dunno what they will do with Idaho, if he finds himself beside Enable behind the leaders he could be pushed along to goad her into chasing them, or simply used as a rail blocker and force her out a bit wider. If he’s not quick enough he’ll just be left to do his own thing at the back.
The most interesting potential runner is Winter, the only Ballydoyle runner who would get the same weight allowance as Enable. She has a good reputation but they would be willing to risk a good filly getting beaten. Will she stay? By Galileo so worth a lash.
If they thought she was their best chance and ran her, the slogfest plan would be out the window and the 2000 Guineas rolling roadblock plan might work.
If Winter runs, stays and runs up to her best form, and she and Enable get a decent passage through the race and are together nearing the business end…I’d pay good money to see that race. Capri possibly best chance of spoiling the party.Who will moore be on? Wont be idaho,com,seventh heaven, Cant see winter turning up (surely he wouldnt even if she did), cant be oosg as much as i like the horse, can it?…
Highland reel likely if it turns up good?
Capri if it turns up softer?Looking forward to this…
I think Capri. If the ground is soft- and I think some rain is forecast- I think Highland Reel will not run and be saved to bag a different G1.
All the other Ballydoyle colts will run, I think. It’s a shot to nothing- they haven’t got big enough reputations to lose (even Capri’s Irish Derby on soft+Leger=dangerously close to “future NH Sire”) and therefore don’t risk harming their stud fees and if one of them got lucky and won, would only enhance it.
The more horses they run, the more chance Enable has of meeting trouble in running, or at least being forced wide if the Ballydoyle pack can hog the rail. I agree that trying to make it a slogfest may be their best chance of finding a chink in her armour (and also deal with Ulysses), so I expect Seventh Heaven – only a mare and has won nothing of note so comparatively worthless to the business- to be the cannon fodder up front at 8-10f pace. When she tires or if she’s slowly away, CoM takes over then gets out of the way to let a strong finishing Capri or OOSG past. Dunno what they will do with Idaho, if he finds himself beside Enable behind the leaders he could be pushed along to goad her into chasing them, or simply used as a rail blocker and force her out a bit wider. If he’s not quick enough he’ll just be left to do his own thing at the back.
The most interesting potential runner is Winter, the only Ballydoyle runner who would get the same weight allowance as Enable. She has a good reputation but they would be willing to risk a good filly getting beaten. Will she stay? By Galileo so worth a lash.
If they thought she was their best chance and ran her, the slogfest plan would be out the window and the 2000 Guineas rolling roadblock plan might work.
If Winter runs, stays and runs up to her best form, and she and Enable get a decent passage through the race and are together nearing the business end…I’d pay good money to see that race. Capri possibly best chance of spoiling the party.Will be interesting, just cant see them sending winter for this , although it wont matter if she finished last, her foals will never be sold and she has more than enough group 1 form in the bag
I also cant see them sending her to the prix de lopera either which shes fav for (had a squeek on rhododendron for that at 10s)
Can’t see The Lads risking the filly at that trip in what’s now sure to be a brutal stamina test with a pace set by horses that the field cannot afford to ignore.
The true stayers are the ones to bet and I think Capri could go off at single figures.
I suspect the key talking point after the race will not so much be the winner but what the international authorities can do about The Lads’ team tactics.
Having had no financial interest in the race whatsoever I can probably speak without bias LOL
I have to agree with Joe on this inasmuch as the “Lads” certainly have team tactics which are close to breaking the rules. The Leger for example. they ran three pacemakers and it was like a Diamond League athletics event!! LOL
I backed two in that race Venice Beach and Capri so I am not talking out of my pocket here. Obviously they are going to try to get the race to suit them but if they just through loads at it in the hope of stopping Enable winning then surely the authorities have to do something.In a “proper” race Enable wins this from some French horse that has been prepped all season for this and then probably one of the “Lads” horses will crawl in third. I a messy race who knows what will happen and IMO something does have to be done about these “team” tactics.
Having had no financial interest in the race whatsoever I can probably speak without bias LOL
I have to agree with Joe on this inasmuch as the “Lads” certainly have team tactics which are close to breaking the rules. The Leger for example. they ran three pacemakers and it was like a Diamond League athletics event!! LOL
I backed two in that race Venice Beach and Capri so I am not talking out of my pocket here. Obviously they are going to try to get the race to suit them but if they just through loads at it in the hope of stopping Enable winning then surely the authorities have to do something.In a “proper” race Enable wins this from some French horse that has been prepped all season for this and then probably one of the “Lads” horses will crawl in third. I a messy race who knows what will happen and IMO something does have to be done about these “team” tactics.
100% spot on. I hate pacemakers and team tactics.
I dont mind a pacemaker, i do think that it cant get a bit much when you have multiple horses rated in the 105-110 region doing it,
The french are much stricter on racing rules arent they? Surely theyd have an issue if it was similar to the leger..?
I do hope someone does something about it sooner rather than later Ham.
It is the multiple pacemakers I have a problem with!!I still haven’t had an antepost bet yet.
It looks a frankly poor renewal outside of the UK runners.
Enable should win but I have a feeling she may get beat by something running the race of its life whereas she may have had one run too many and slightly underperforms.
I still haven’t had an antepost bet yet.
It looks a frankly poor renewal outside of the UK runners.
Enable should win but I have a feeling she may get beat by something running the race of its life whereas she may have had one run too many and slightly underperforms.
Nobody “flukes” an Arc, except Solemia. Danedream, Snow Fairy, Nathaniel missing it due to injury/fever/quarantine the week before the race. Pastorius and Novellist not being supplemented. Favourite Novellist missing the 2013 running with another fever, after he was bought by Japanese owners a couple days before.
That whole situation surrounding the 2012-2013 Arcs makes for one hell of a conspiracy theory/cinderella movie. Japan takes out the five best horses of 2012 in their quest to finally win the Arc with Orfevre, who then knocks himself silly and gets turned over at by a re-rallying unheralded mare.
Can’t see The Lads risking the filly at that trip in what’s now sure to be a brutal stamina test with a pace set by horses that the field cannot afford to ignore.
The true stayers are the ones to bet and I think Capri could go off at single figures.
I suspect the key talking point after the race will not so much be the winner but what the international authorities can do about The Lads’ team tactics.
AOB is pretty relentless in his running of his horses, apart from the next generation of stallions whose reputations need a bit of protecting. I don’t see why running Winter would be any sort of a risk to her, and it makes sense if they think she will stay.
I’m not sure which of AOB’s will be sacrificed for “team tactics”. I don’t think it matters too much to them who wins it, as long as they do.
I’m a bit late throwing my hat into the ring on this thread, but after spending a bit of time
going through the field looking for a bit of value, and watching as many reruns as I could
stomach, I think there is value to be had in CLOTH OF STARS at 33/1.
I think there is little doubt that if ENABLE turns up in top form, and doesn’t have a hard
luck story in running, she’s well capable of taking this as she looks a bit special. Those
are two significant iff’s, and the ARC is traditionally a no holds barred tough skirmish of
a race. With that in mind, I’m not too inclined to take the pretty skinny 4/5 on offer.Cloth OF STARS could very well be going into this having won all 4 of his starts this season, and
if he had I don’t think he would be on offer at 33/1. Having watched his run in the Qatar Prix Foy
at Chantilly last time out, he nearly hit the rails at one point and had to be snatched up, and even
although it was only a 6 runner race, Barzalona somehow managed to get him completely tied up with
nowhere to go until virtually inside the final furlong, when Dschingis Secret had already got the
march on him. Dschingis Secret is trading at half his price, and there’s no way that should be the
case. There seems every chance that it could come up soft on Arc day, and that won’t trouble him at
all. If it stays dry, he’ll be equally happy. Add to that that this is a horse who broke the track
record over 10f back in April, and he was running on strongly when he eventually saw daylight
behind Dschingis Secret over 12f, and I think there is every chance that he has a very decent
shout here. I’m very keen on his chances and have had a decent bet on him e/w.Cloth OF STARS could very well be going into this having won all 4 of his starts this season, and
if he had I don’t think he would be on offer at 33/1. Having watched his run in the Qatar Prix Foy
at Chantilly last time out, he nearly hit the rails at one point and had to be snatched up, and even
although it was only a 6 runner race, Baezalona somehow managed to get him completely tied up with
nowhere to go until virtually inside the final furlong, when Dschingis Secret had already got the
march on him. Dschingis Secret is trading at half his price, and there’s no way that should be the
case. There seems every chance that it could come up soft on Arc day, and that won’t trouble him at
all. If it stays dry, he’ll be equally happy. Add to that that this is a horse who broke the track
record over 10f back in April, and he was running on strongly when he eventually saw daylight
behind Dschingis Secret over 12f, and I think there is every chance that he has a very decent
shout here. I’m very keen on his chances and have had a decent bet on him e/w.I largely agree with that summary and am on at fancy prices both win and EW. The horse has a turn of foot, but I’m not totally sure he can quicken again close to the finish, and I feel his Arc run might mirror his run in last year’s Grand Prix de Paris where he flattened out near the line. I’m also uneasy about his Betfair price which as I observed in an earlier post have had a whiff of ‘doubtful runner’ about them albeit the indications are that he’ll line up. His run in the Foy looked like what I’ll term ‘a real Arc prep…nudge, nudge..’ and he’s been kept for an Autumn campaign. So if he’s good enough over the distance I’d expect him to be in the first three.
But to be frank, I’m rather relying on Enable ‘not turning up’ so to speak, and I doubt Gosden would have left too much to chance in her prep. Anyway, it’ll be an interesting few days ahead.
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