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Well OoSG has to go to the Arc surely. Him and HR are still miles ahead of the three year olds mugs from AOB. Can send CoM as a pacemaker.
Very much agree, after that performance St George must go there and if the ground comes up on the easy side I can see Moore choosing him over Highland Reel.
As for Cracksman – he ha an unfortunate trait of hitting a flat spot and going absolutely nowhere about 3 furlongs out before properly getting going and that’ll cost him in an Arc.
Well OoSG has to go to the Arc surely. Him and HR are still miles ahead of the three year olds mugs from AOB. Can send CoM as a pacemaker.
Australia more likely
How much weight are they going to slap onto him? 80kg.
I don´t think they´d have run in this, if the Melbourne Cup was the target.I took Brametot at 21.00 after his reappearance flop, and his price has been steadily brought down by the horses ahead of him in the market underperforming. I’ve also just taken a bit of 28.00 for Highland Reel; if the ground comes up good, he’ll run his usual race and that would put him bang there. I’ve also got Idaho at 80.00, but that was a month or so ago. I thought he would be a G1 horse, but time is quickly running out for him.
I’m confident Cracksman will be there and will probably win it. He looks all over a horse who’s crying out for that kind of test.
I don’t know what Oppenheimer is on about. Gosden talks straight after York of the horse being finished for the year. Frankie voices doubts about him handling Chantilly. Surprise, surprise…he turns up in the Niel.
That was his Arc trial. Passed not quite with flying colours because it’s too sharp for him, but it will have put the final piece of the jigsaw in place for the trainer, surely.
I’m confident Cracksman will be there and will probably win it. He looks all over a horse who’s crying out for that kind of test.
I don’t know what Oppenheimer is on about. Gosden talks straight after York of the horse being finished for the year. Frankie voices doubts about him handling Chantilly. Surprise, surprise…he turns up in the Niel.
That was his Arc trial. Passed not quite with flying colours because it’s too sharp for him, but it will have put the final piece of the jigsaw in place for the trainer, surely.
Where will he find the 8lbs improvement he needs tonwin the arc? Thats likely why frankie and oppenheimer keep playing it down is it not? He could be a certainty next year though if enable is put away
if he dosent turn up they know he cant beat her, end of, thats how i view it anyway
I’m confident Cracksman will be there and will probably win it. He looks all over a horse who’s crying out for that kind of test.
I don’t know what Oppenheimer is on about. Gosden talks straight after York of the horse being finished for the year. Frankie voices doubts about him handling Chantilly. Surprise, surprise…he turns up in the Niel.
That was his Arc trial. Passed not quite with flying colours because it’s too sharp for him, but it will have put the final piece of the jigsaw in place for the trainer, surely.
Where will he find the 8lbs improvement he needs tonwin the arc? Thats likely why frankie and oppenheimer keep playing it down is it not? He could be a certainty next year though if enable is put away
if he dosent turn up they know he cant beat her, end of, thats how i view it anyway
If you owned him though youd surely take him? Lots of horses dont train on or get injured. Hes in good form and I think they’d be mad not to take him. They are only worried because they dont want to take on one of their own stable stars, especially because Frankie has said he will ride Enable. Smullen deputised in Ireland so get him back on board.
‘If’ and its a very big ‘if’ Enable gets beat and they didn’t declare Cracksman they would look a bit foolish in my opinion.
He may well improve next year but he would have to as he wouldn’t be getting weight-for-age. If he was trained by any other trainer it would surely be a no-brainer. Come on Johnny G!!!
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He may well improve next year but he would have to as he wouldn’t be getting weight-for-age. If he was trained by any other trainer it would surely be a no-brainer. Come on Johnny G!!!
Nail – head. Any other trainer and this fella would be going. I hope for the sake of the race he turns up. Not looking like much of a contest as it stands.
With Flinche appearing to need it yesterday Cracksman didn’t need to improve to win by a good margin. That said, with Ulysses, Highland Reel and Order Of St George all having alternative targets Cracksman would be a clear second favourite if confirmed to run.
Breeders Cup Turf might look attractive, but that’s an even sharper course than Chantilly. Owner, trainer and jockey had a reversal in that race a couple of years ago with Golden Horn and can come up very firm. Although if going there Dettori could ride.
Gosden is often reticent about telling the public a horse will definitely run – sometimes being more negative about the most obvious target. In the end usually does what’s right for the horse even if that means taking a stable companion on. Shame one of them isn’t a 10 furlong horse who could go for the Champion.
One possible reason Gosden is trying to keep them apart is the two are similar types; track pace, need to be asked to quicken but do so willingly and can sustain top speed for a considerable time. Wouldn’t want the pair to take each other on too soon. Cracksman will probably make an even better four year old, but when in such good form can’t believe connections would keep the three year old colt in his box.
In my opinion (emphasise imo) now he’s proven at Chantilly Cracksman is just about more likely than not to run in the Arc. Not good for my pocket – having Enable at a double figure price. But with the worst French crop I can recall and Coolmore without a stand out middle distance horse (best Highland Reel if Good/Good-firm, Order Of St George if on the soft side)… Therefore good for the race if Cracksman runs. I can’t get involved given my earlier bets, but if having a bet right now… Enable is too short @ Evens and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking a chance with 10/1 Cracksman.
Value Is Everythingham, for all we know the 8lbs improvement is already there but in the last two runs he’s been unable to show it due to quality of opposition and, more importantly imo, the lack of a sufficiently stiff test.
The Oppenheimer stuff is smoke and mirrors, I think. These gloomy pronouncements about not wanting the horse to have a hard race might have its roots in Golden Horn’s Arc, or, perhaps more to the point, his subsequent defeat at odds on in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He owns the horse. If he fears a tough race so much he could simply have instructed Gosden to put the horse away after York. He adds further confusion to the mix by suggesting that if Enable misses it for some reason Gosden might then run Cracksman. Would Enable’s absence ensure an easy race in the Arc? I doubt it.
Oppenheimer goes on and on but always ends up saying the trainer will decide. If that’s the case then Cracksman lines up. As Alastair Down might say, if you’re searching for Mr Gosden’s personnel file, you can safely bypass the drawer with the folders marked F for fool. Gosden had his eyes opened at York, I think. He has a top class, fast-improving, impeccably bred three-year-old in different ownership to the Arc favourite. Who knows if Cracksman will be sound and well a month from now let alone in a year (when, BTW, he’d need to give weight to three-year-olds and defy age stats that are on his side this year). If the trainer had any serious doubt about running in the Arc why the ‘surprise’ entry in the Niel?
From a form viewpoint, I suspect the going at Chantilly next month might have a more decisive part to play than anything Oppenheimer says. If gets pretty deep, I doubt they’ll run Cracksman. He took an age to pick up yesterday compared with York and while he would run an honest race in deep ground and see it out to the line, I think he might take just a bit too long to get going.
Finally, if everything is down to Gosden, James Knight was a bit mischievous on his blog yesterday, digging up an old quote from Gosden and changing the word ‘handicap’ to ‘hard race’:
‘I am not worried about a hard race. If you have a mature three-year-old that stays a mile and a half then you are a bit of a w@nker if you worry about a hard race. I prefer in life to throw the big dice.’
He may well improve next year but he would have to as he wouldn’t be getting weight-for-age.
I think what’s meant by “improve next year”, Joni; is making more than normal progress from three to four, ie Cracksman is expected to improve more than the weight-for-age allowance.
Value Is EverythingIf Cracksman ran and won the Arc isn’t it likely he would be packed off to the stud at the end of this season?
Better for the racing public if he runs all next season surely?
Indeed, great blog on the subject from JK. From a selfish point of view I hope the Crackheads are left disappointed since I’m on Enable and Highland Reel!
I’m sure James didn’t mean to doctor that Gozzer quote Joe, especially since the same point applies. He was probably paraphrasing from memory. Gosden usually doesn’t care about winning handicaps with group horses or hoovering up smaller group races if he thinks he has something that can compete in the top G1s.
I suspect it’s Oppenheimer who is being the contrarian about this.
Still, even if you know for a fact that Enable rinses Cracksman on the gallops then you should still have a go at the Arc. There is such a thing as luck in running – what if Cracksman nabbed first run or got a clearer passage?
Cracksman´s own development and health aside, who says there won´t be a horse or two as good or better than Enable in the Arc next year. He gonna skip that one, too?
If Cracksman ran and won the Arc isn’t it likely he would be packed off to the stud at the end of this season?
Better for the racing public if he runs all next season surely?
I know that’s generally what happens, but Anthony Oppenheimer is 80 and can’t be short of a quid or two, so you’d think he’d rather have another year of racing from his horse.
LS, it would be great if that had been the original Gosden quote (James says at the end of his piece that he doctored it)
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