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I wouldn’t take Brametot’s run today too literally, he missed the break something terrible, nearly conceding 4 or 5 lengths. I know he is a hold up horse but Demuro really had to push him along in the opening moments just to keep in touch with the others. He still managed to finish with his usual overdrive, but any chance he had died at the starting stalls.
As for the Arc picture, nothing I’ve seen thus far makes me think there is anything out there that can give Enable (if she is at her best) weight and win.
He still managed to finish with his usual overdrive,
Did he?
If he did I didn’t see it.
Value Is EverythingThis Enable could well be sitting at 4/6 next week for this
Added a couple more members to the team today with Capri @ Seventh Heaven. Jack Hobbs is in the virtual dustbin now, what a disappointment he has been this season
Idaho @ 260
Crystal Ocean @ 260 Laid off stakes @ 75
Ulysses @ 210 Laid off stakes @ 29.0 & 11.5
Cloth of Stars @ 190 & 100
Highland Reel @ 90 & 75 Laid off stakes @ 13.0 Back in @ 50.0
Waldgeist @ 75 & 46
Wings Of Desire @ 390
Seventh Heaven @ 140
Capri @ 85 & 140
Venice Beach @ 292.0
Apart from Wings of Desire quite happy overall after yesterdays shocks.Looks like Highland Reel is being wrote off by a few layers again. Never known such a good horse to be continually underrated. Wins two top group one’s, then runs as expected in a swamp and he is out to 50’s on the exchanges.
Fair enough he might not get his ground, but 50/1 come on
Cracksman could win this, if they let him!
I heard old Oppenheimer’s words to run him again next year, but maybe they will rethink
?!Timeform’s take on Cracksman:
Cracksman (127p from 123+) set an above average standard in a quality renewal of the Great Voltigeur, with all bar Atty Perse having at least placed in Group company already this year, and he turned it into a procession in a well-run affair that suited him ideally, putting up one the best performances in the history of this race let alone in recent years. Once they’d turned in he made rapid headway to lead and very quickly – and impressively – put the race to bed, storming clear and continuing to pour it on until Frankie Dettori took it easy towards the finish.
He looks a Group-1 winner in waiting and could yet develop into a colt right out of the top drawer and, whether we see him again this autumn or not, he will be kept in training for what will be an exciting four-year-old campaign. Venice Beach (up 2 lb to 117) was beaten hollow by Cracksman but still ran a personal best, worth credit for beating all of the others by a wide margin, the galloping track and easy ground looking ideal for him; the St Leger is a possible target and he’ll probably stay the longer trip
Martyn Meade is still very confident about EMINENT’S chances in this and ensures us that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
I really hope he gets to take part and although there are so many options open for him I feel this track would suit his style and could be his best option and by employing those front running tactics again even Enable could be hard pressed to catch him.
He is definitely going to win a Group 1 before the season is out and as it looks like he’s not going to take part in the Irish Champion Stakes, this is well and truly on the cards.
Jac (Secretary of the Eminent Fan Club)..
Eminent – Win – 16/1
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Just accommodated someone @ 11.5 on Ulysses. Looks like the Arc is the next port of call, good call Sir Michael
Timeform’s take on Cracksman:
Cracksman (127p from 123+) set an above average standard in a quality renewal of the Great Voltigeur, with all bar Atty Perse having at least placed in Group company already this year, and he turned it into a procession in a well-run affair that suited him ideally, putting up one the best performances in the history of this race let alone in recent years. Once they’d turned in he made rapid headway to lead and very quickly – and impressively – put the race to bed, storming clear and continuing to pour it on until Frankie Dettori took it easy towards the finish.
He looks a Group-1 winner in waiting and could yet develop into a colt right out of the top drawer and, whether we see him again this autumn or not, he will be kept in training for what will be an exciting four-year-old campaign. Venice Beach (up 2 lb to 117) was beaten hollow by Cracksman but still ran a personal best, worth credit for beating all of the others by a wide margin, the galloping track and easy ground looking ideal for him; the St Leger is a possible target and he’ll probably stay the longer trip
A serious over reaction for a group 2 winner, none of the field he beat are group 1 level horses and venice beach is a group 2/3 horse at best
Rated higher than previous derby winners/ group 1 winners
Cracksman has been pretty much ruled out by the owner. Oppenheimer sounds pretty clueless as an owner and I think Gosden probably had to throat-punch him senseless to get him to run Golden Horn is the Derby.
Oppenheimer is citing part of his reasoning being that Frankie will be riding Enable and unavailable for Cracksman. I doubt that makes much difference but, hey ho, it’s not my horse.
I don’t think that was much of a Voltigeur this season. Cracksman was odds-on and expected to win cosily. Venice Beach was actually a good bit further adrift of Cracksman in the Derby, so he’s hardly taken a big step forward from that viewpoint.
The official handicapper has Cracksman on 122 and when you think about it, runner up Venice Beach is a 20/1 shot for the St Leger, so hardly a horse with gears.
It’s a poor Arc to my eyes. Enable should win in all likelihood. The French horses are rubbish this season and the 2YO’s have mainly been unexciting over the Channel this year as well. I probably won’t bet in this race now. Plenty better options exist.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Enable is very good, but numerous horses better than her have been beaten in this,and she has been on the go from early on. Even if the trials next Sunday don’t, on the book, produce a performance that would worry a top of the form Enable, I just feel it is more than possible that she will be gone for the year and run well below her best.
Enable is clearly the star of the European flat season, but trades around the even-money mark at the moment which is very short, but justified given the lack of depth in the entries and the strength of her form. So what are the alternatives? Almanzor has been retired. Cracksman wouldn’t be Arc class in a normal year and his usual mount of Frankie Dettori will be on Enable. Satono Diamond, the Japanese raider, has form that is impossible to accurately judge. The Arc market looks weak but I do think the French team has been underestimated.
French Guineas and Derby-winner Brametot looks big at 16/1 based solely on his disappointing defeat by Eminent when last seen in a Group Two. If you watch that race and you’ll see he breaks so slowly surrendering the winner 20 or more lengths to give him an impossible chance of winning. Unfortunately, he has a habbit of breaking slowly but still managed to win both those French Classics in photo finishes having broken slowly, beating some top-class horses, so clearly has a ability and every right to improve. The mile-and-a-half trip doesn’t concern me. He needed every inch of the French Derby trip of ten furlongs to get up which gives me little reason to doubt his staying power given his big price – he is proven on slower ground too, which is again is a big tick in the plus column.
Brametot has the talent to win and at 16/1 an each-way play looks good to me
I backed Satono Diamond each-way at 10/1 with Bet365 with the hope that he’ll bolt up in the Foy on Sunday and become the only legitimate challenger to Enable.
I’ve watched his races in Japan and he comes with a powerful late run which I can see bringing him into a place at least. He’s the only horse I can see possibly defeating an on-song Enable and maybe this is the year for the Japanese.
I would love to see Shutter Speed in this, and I have had a fun bet at 33-1
I think that I can put this slip in the bin.
I have added 2 more in this. I think both are unlikely to go here but Order Of St George 28-1 + Rhododendron at 40-1 both each way look like they are worth small bets
I’ve taken some more 10s about Cracksman. He’ll be half that price by this time Sunday.
Well OoSG has to go to the Arc surely. Him and HR are still miles ahead of the three year olds mugs from AOB. Can send CoM as a pacemaker.
Well OoSG has to go to the Arc surely. Him and HR are still miles ahead of the three year olds mugs from AOB. Can send CoM as a pacemaker.
Australia more likely
The arc is likely a dodge race for most of these horses because of enable and having to give her so much weight…
Of course i may be wrong in regards to oosg but i can see this being a small arc field as genuine contenders are few and far this year
Cracksman looks highly likely to miss it and i can side with the owner even frankie basicallly dismissed it, they dont think hes ready for it…. i hope they dont send him…
?!
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