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Ei ei Ginge, we’re sitting pretty now.
Wouldn’t totally write off Highland Reel either, ran a pretty game race on the ground today.
True LS, although am looking to lay off my Highland Reel bet, at least for now. With a race in October I’d want a horse that goes on at least good-soft. That said, am certainly not going to lay it at tonight’s 27/1. Seems an over-reation. Hopefully can come back to form before then.
Value Is EverythingOne more I will add is Barney Roy.
With Enable rock solid at the top and top older horse Highland Reel likely to face a tough task even on a sound surface, you’re looking for anything with half a chance of beating the filly. Almanzor is MIA, Brametot’s price is bottled up, Ulysses doesn’t stay.
IMO Barney has more raw ability than Enable and may be more of a likely runner than people generally think. Godolphin won’t be able to stand going without a proper Arc contender, so I expect Barney will take that route. He has fair prospects of staying the trip and looks too big at 20+ on the machine, especially since Hannon is also keen to run.
One more I will add is Barney Roy.
With Enable rock solid at the top and top older horse Highland Reel likely to face a tough task even on a sound surface, you’re looking for anything with half a chance of beating the filly. Almanzor is MIA, Brametot’s price is bottled up, Ulysses doesn’t stay.
IMO Barney has more raw ability than Enable and may be more of a likely runner than people generally think. Godolphin won’t be able to stand going without a proper Arc contender, so I expect Barney will take that route. He has fair prospects of staying the trip and looks too big at 20+ on the machine, especially since Hannon is also keen to run.
Don’t expect Ulysses or Barney Roy would run on soft ground at 1m4f… And for a race in October I’d only want to back something ante-post that goes on at least good-soft.
Even if it came up on the firm side Ulysses has more chance of staying the trip than Barney Roy. What makes you think he has “fair prospects of staying the trip”, LS?
I was pretty confident of Barney staying 10 furlongs because of the way he moves in to races and needs to be asked for his effort. However, seems to me he’s already outstayed his pedigree and imo a doubtful stayer at 12f; Galileo as the dam’s sire is surrounded by speed influences. The fact Barney is effective at a mile suggests Galileo’s stamina influence won’t get him to stay 12f. I’d say it’s at least 70/30 not staying and when he’s favourite for the Champion he’s surely unlikely to go to France? Unless of course he fails at 10f at York or Leopardstown and/or Churchill beats Ribchester in the Sussex. In both cases Godolphin are more likely to drop Barney back to a mile – wanting a Champion miler.Value Is EverythingWill know more about the Arc in the next half hour.
Both Almanzor and Brametot running.Value Is EverythingAlmanzor was feeble. He was beaten from a long way out, never picked up at all. As I said earlier, I had a bad feeling he would not line up in the Arc. When a horse’s return keeps getting pushed back it is usually poisonous news.
His odds today were suicidal.
I am hoping Brametot can put up a better show than that later on.
Almanzor is 20/1 for the Arc now
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Almanzor wasn’t knocked around by the jockey but that’s the only thing his supporters can cling to.
Feeling good as a Highland Reel/Enable backer now.
Well, that was a bit naff. Did the order change at all in that race?
Ryan Moore outrides French jockeys – the finishing position of Salouen says all you need to know about how shonky that piece of form will be.
Gosh, there’s holding a horse up and then there is suicide. Brametot would have needed to be Arazi in the Breeder’s Cup there.
Eminent deserved to win for being the only horse put in the race properly. I have seen more shocking hold up rides from French jockeys this season than almost any other time in history. Brametot today, Senga and Trais Fluors earlier in the year.
Brametot will have more ground to cover in the Arc but he looks holed below the water line. Enable will be long gone before the French jockey stirs himself from his farting sack.
Brametot is also 20/1 now and Enable is hardening as low as Evens now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Brametot is often slowly away and always dropped out at the back of his field; always going to be ridden that way.
See the French Derby and 2000 Guineas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhA7VgTvvSY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOmIpv-2b9I
Value Is EverythingBoth Almanzor and Brametot looked positively burly in an earlier piece of work.
May be they both needed it badly, but the yard aren’t in good form at the moment.
Taareef ran poorly in the Marois at the weekend and his Deauville runners haven’t run at all well. Once Rouget comes back to form you could see a lot of improvement in both horses.Value Is EverythingAlmanzor was feeble. He was beaten from a long way out, never picked up at all. As I said earlier, I had a bad feeling he would not line up in the Arc. When a horse’s return keeps getting pushed back it is usually poisonous news.
His odds today were suicidal.
I am hoping Brametot can put up a better show than that later on.
Almanzor is 20/1 for the Arc now
Agree with that. Its often an overlooked factor.
Agree with you there Ginge. Fair play to the trainer with Almanzor, he did say many times his horses would only be 60% FTO. Qeemah was very bad FTO and went on to win at Ascot.
A lot more surprised with the Brametot run though, reminded me of Zelzal’s run earlier this year, but without missing the break.
I backed Brametot in both the French 2000 Guineas and the French Derby. I am well aware of how he runs.
You have to adapt tactics depending on factors such as likely pace and the going. It is always tougher to make up significant ground if there is something taking the race by the scruff of the neck from the front and conditions are such that the ones in front will not be stopping. They had the warning of his two last gasp wins already and it is impossible to keep winning from desperately far back.
I doubt anything could have won from that far back in today’s race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I don’t think Almanzor is an Arc horse, personally. Would love for JCR to get the horse back and get him into the race match-fit, but I’d sooner have him back at Ascot.
As for Brametot, things fell apart for him today. I think he’s a brilliant horse and I can’t wait to see him in the Arc. It’s been mentioned that he will head straight there after today, but that was before the race when I’m assuming they weren’t expecting him to run as he did. I did back him at 20/1 after the race because the Arc has been the plan for him, and I can’t see them changing it after one poor run.
Looking at the others in the field, does anyone else think Idaho is a gigantic price at 33/1? I managed to get a fiver on him at 75.00 on the exchange! He’s without doubt an improved horse this year, he will go on any ground they get, and he’s one of these horses who will continue to turn up in the big G1 races over 12 furlongs and give a really solid showing – hell, I think he will win a G1 before the season is out. I can’t see why they wouldn’t send him and Highland Reel there.
Also, Frontiersman is 50/1. If he can sort his head out, he’s going to be a serious horse at some point.
I agree with everything you’ve said Degaussed, but I hope you’re backing Idaho each-way. I think he’s the type of horse who could get a place but probably has it all to do if he’s to defeat Enable, Ulysses, Highland Reel, Capri, etc…
Agree with you there Ginge. Fair play to the trainer with Almanzor, he did say many times his horses would only be 60% FTO. Qeemah was very bad FTO and went on to win at Ascot.
A lot more surprised with the Brametot run though, reminded me of Zelzal’s run earlier this year, but without missing the break.
The way both horses ran today seemed more than just unfit horses. Put me in mind of a virus problem. Although Rouget’s stable had herpes he seemingly went through a period of good form afterwards which suggested he was over it. I wonder whether the herpes thing has left the string vulnerable to another virus. Brametot and Almanzor have been working companions recently, could be what one has got the other has picked up. Yard’s had an awful Deauville too, even horses who have been running well ran poorly. If it is a virus then once Rouget’s horses are clear there’s a possibility of a return to form for these horses too. On the bright-side for you, Botchy – fact that the Champion would give three more weeks for Almanzor to recover might make that a more tempting target than the Arc.
Value Is Everything
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