Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2017

Degaussed wrote:

thejudge1 wrote:

Degaussed wrote:

I’m not sure, personally, how anyone can back Enable at her current price. In my opinion, the play in this is to find something 16/1 or bigger at 1/5 odds with great place claims and an outside shot of winning if Enable underperforms. If they place you’re taking even money on your stake, and if they win you’re laughing.

And if they don’t place?

Well, that’s the bet, isn’t it? What if Enable doesn’t win?

Yeah but the way you present it picking some random outsider to place is so much of a better play than backing the strong favourite to win, and it simply isn’t.

Voleur wrote:

I’ve taken Minding at 12/1, Cloth of Stars 40/1.

I have no idea if he’ll even end up here, (I find it very difficult to find information in the French media) but 40/1 seems like the value bet.

Nice to see a bit of support for my long range pick Cloth of Stars, who was punted way back in April. Despite his withdrawal from the Prince of Wales costing me, I was delighted Fabre opted for a patient and long-sighted approach with him. No doubt he is going into this as one of the freshest and well-primed contenders.

I agree with the sentiment here that he did not get the run of the race in the Foy, and as a result is going into this a little under the radar. I am by no means hopeful of him winning, nor of him even placing – his style of running could get him into a lot of traffic problems in a busy Arc – but I think he is well overpriced and therefore I’m happy with the perceived value.

Voleur wrote:

I’ve gone in again on Cloth of Stars 50.0

I’m also on Cloth of Stars at 50.0

Voleur wrote:

I’v also added: Capri 290.0 and Al Wukair 300.0

Taking 290.0 on Capri before his Irish Derby success was one of my more inspired moments, having fancied him strongly for success that day. As of now I have simply laid my stake 30.0, but with the ground looking like it will come up soft – and the chance Moore books him – I expect his price will contract considerably on the day. If that is to happen I will lay off as much of my other liabilities as I can.

Like Cloth of Stars, I am not confident of a win, but I have the market well on-side with this one and I am quietly confident of a place.

I backed 8 for this ante-post, and of those only 2 have made it this far. While this ratio is by no means ideal, I can’t help but feel mildly satisfied with my position. Providing Capri survives till Sunday with all 4 legs intact, I should be well in the green, giving me plenty of security to play my hand on the day.

My bets as of now:

Casualties:
– Minding 12/1 X
– Cliffs of Moher 25/1 X
– Terrakova 33/1 X
– Al Wukair 300.0 X
– Parabellum 130.0 X
– Kitasan Black 410.0 X

Survivors:
– Cloth of Stars 40/1 + 50.0
– Capri 290.0

I’ve also backed Enable to win and Ulysses + Order of St George to be placed, on which Paddy Power kindly offered me 20/1 prior to Cracksman’s convenient withdrawal.

As of now my plan is to get stuck into whatever is floating around on OOSG, who I think Moore will most likely saddle, and who I think has a great chance of upsetting the favourite.

Other than that I’ll probably back Enable in a double with Polydream, and perhaps in a treble with Winter if she goes for the Opera.

Good luck all, what a feast of racing we have before us.

ham wrote:

Moore on winter
Seamie on idaho (surprised me)
Donnacha on oosg
Lordan on capri

As a capri backer id say im actually quite happy wayne lordan is on board although its probably a negative in terms of. Jockey bookings

Good news for my rhododendron (10/1) bet that winter is running here shes now 4/1 fav for the opera

The quirky Idaho takes some knowing and Seamie has a good record on him. So can understand why The Boys wanted the partnership to continue. It should not be thought of as The Heff having second choice or having the second best chance of the Coolmore Quintet. He’s told who to ride. I’d still have Idaho 4th of the 5 in terms of winning the race; although possibly better than 4th in terms of placing.

Form of the St Leger is good – for a St Leger – but Capri still has to improve to reach the standard of Order Of St George and (given the sex allowance) Winter. In form terms I’d put him alongside Idaho but with a “+”.

As far as chances of each horse go… Depends a great deal on team tactics, is there to be a sacrificial lamb? Will the trainer’s son be told “go off at a suicidal pace” in the hope of drawing Enable in to going too fast too soon; with Coolmore’s hold up horses (who’ve gone equal fractions) passing the exhausted favourite in the final furlong?

Not sure we will see the similar tactics used in the st leger, oosg will go off infront with idaho close up, dont think theyll go a furious gallop because they wont want to stretch winter with her already stamina doubts, box in job on enable!

Think Seventh Heaven and Idaho are the most likely to be sacrificed as pacemakers and expect OOSG to kick on for home off the home turn with Capri and Enable not far behind – Winter liable to be held up to try and conserve her suspect stamina (not convinced that in a truely run 12F race on soft ground she will get home).

Have to be honest that I am surprised Winter is running as even though she won over 10F at Goodwood, it wasn’t a strongly run race and I didn’t think after watching it that she was crying out for another 2F – she is more used to travelling at mile pace (and it was noted she took a keen hold early at Goodwood) so a jump up to 12F might mean that at a slower early pace will cause her to pull more and that is the last thing she will want to be doing. Would have thought the Prix de l’Opera over 10F or the Sun Chariot the following week over a mile would have been more suitable G1 options for her.

With the ground still currently the French version of soft, the German horse could be an interesting bet at around 12-1 as he has not only won twice on soft ground (once over 14F) he has also won on heavy ground, so if the forecast rain at the weekend arrives, it could play even more into his hands and compromise the more fancied horses chances.

While its great for racing, I’m struggling to see the logic of Winter’s involvement from the lads point of view. As a future Coolmore brood-mare, none of her foals will ever be sold and she has no future stud value to boost by running here. You could look at her involvement as ‘what has she got to lose?’ – which is nothing quite frankly – but then why put Moore on her? What do the other Ballydoyle runners have to gain by winning is a much more pertinent question, the answer to which is a lot. If the race is to be ran to suit Winter’s needs, this will no doubt decrease the chances of the other Ballydoyle runners – most notably OOSG and Capri – quite drastically.

Surely OOSG and Capri have a better chance of winning than her, if the race is ran in a way that benefits them? And surely both their stud value’s would sky-rocket with an Arc victory on their CV’s? Both would be triple Classic winners at multiple distances. OOSG would no longer be doomed to the NH roster, and Capri would move into the stable next-door to the likes of Camelot and Australia, and just a few doors down from the mighty Galileo.

Unless they think of course that they can’t win and she can.

Voleur wrote:

Unless they think of course that they can’t win and she can.

Could well be the case Voleur, probably you would fancy Winter over Enable at 10F.

Interesting in AOB stable tour in April about her ” There’s a chance she’ll go to the 1000 Guineas and come back for the Irish equivalent before stepping up in trip after that. She’s out of a fast mare, but she should stay a mile-and-a-quarter and might get a mile-and-a-half. Physically, she looks like a middle-distance filly.”

I’m delighted they’ve decided to go with Winter. I think the fact the ground didn’t come for Highland Reel has swayed their decision a little – he’s the only realistic contender for Enable, so if he can’t run they might as well give Winter a go. She’s ground versatile and she has a chance to get the trip on pedigree, so why not?

Voleur wrote:

I think OOSG is worthy of much more respect going into this race. He managed to finish third in last year’s Arc – which was no doubt a weaker renewal – but all you need to do is look at his prep for both races to see he is coming into this a completely different animal from last year. He may be rated 4 pounds lower going into this years race, but thats because the quality of opposition simply wasn’t there to inflate it any further. Thats not to say the form is worthless. He did to inferior opposition exactly what he should do; destroyed them. Dartmouth didn’t run to form, but even if he did I’m confident he wouldn’t have got near OOSG while in that kind of mood.

Last year he came into the race after narrowly beating a horse rated 100 in the Irish Leger Trial and after being defeated by Wicklow Brave in the Irish Leger. This year he comes into it after destroying Rekindling – who since went on to run a promising race in the English Leger – and demolishing the Irish Leger field with contempt.

He will relish the soft conditions more than any other horse in the race, and if he turns up on Sunday in the same vein of form he showed at the Curragh – or perhaps even shows improvement – then he will make it a real test for Enable and other challengers.

Couldn’t agree more. The horse betting for the arc is weird. Second favourite is a horse who enable slammed in the king george yet idaho who was a length behind Ulysses is three times the price. Capri should he much shorter as the horse is improving with time and the ground won’t bother him. I do though fancy oosg to be right there at the end but the weight given to enable could prove too much. There is always one horse who runs better than the arc trials suggested but I’ve no view on those horses.i wouldn’t be surprised if an unconsidered outsider won. The race just has that feel about it this year for me.