Paddy Power Chase 2017

Love this race, one of the highlights of The Christmas Festival at Leapordstown.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/187/leopardstown/2017-12-27/690929

Not that often I think one of these races is all about the favourite, but after that performance from Polidam at the weekend, it’s going to take a seriously smart horse to beat him. Even before his win in The Foxtrot, I thought this race could be the only target for him, and if you didn’t see him at Navan, he really does deserve to be the favourite at 4’s. A smashing horse, who they think a lot of, and I seen enough on Saturday to think that his future will be in graded company before long. He took care of his much more high profile stablemate, Acapella Bourgeois, on Saturday, and though Acapella is second favourite here, he was beaten a bit too easily by Polidam for my liking. I think a return to the old tactics, might be worth considering for him, as he definitely looked a bit flat the other day. Also entered from the yard are Pleasant Company, Racing Pulse, & Retour En France. Retour looks to have a lot on his plate here just to get in, but no such worries for Pleasant Company, a horse I always give a good word to. Yes, he gets pulled a lot, which isn’t ideal at this stage, but he’s a very very good horse, as could be seen at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, and Aintree in the last year and a half. Aintree surely on the agenda again, but until then, you can take your pick at what race he appears in, and guaranteed to be competitive wherever he goes. I’m a big fan of this horse, and he’s worth the watching. That’s probably not the case with Racing Pulse, who so far, hasn’t improved for moving from Rebecca Curtis to WPM.

Despite Polidam looking absolutely rock solid for this, the first two names I wanted to see in there were Oscar Knight and Squouateur. Both owned by JP, and this is very much a race where JP still tends to throw plenty of darts at. Squouateur is one of my key horses for the season, and his eyecatching run over an inadequate trip last weekend, did little to dampen my enthusiasm. He looked to be in good nick at Fairyhouse, and this type of test will be ideal. I really think a repeat bid for The Kim Muir will be on the cards, off his current mark, he’d be my nap for that race, a race he was absolutely cruising in last season, before an unseat 4 out. A win here just might see him weighted out of that though. He just has to be taken seriously this season, and it’s really all about which race is the main target for him. I’m pretty much convinced he wins a proper big one this year. Oscar Knight didn’t really grab my attention initially for this last year, but a win in The Foxrock soon changed my mind, and I snapped up the 25’s. I was rewarded with the place money, but a late blunder stopped him winning, and he’s surely on a recovery mission here. He’s in good form, as his recent hurdles win showed, and no surprise to see him back for more, and the opening price of 20’s is more than fair. Proper shortlist material.

Not the only JP representatives though, and he also has…….

Anibale Fly
King Leon
Tesseract
Vent De La Cote
Teachers Pet
White Arm
Close Shave
Whatareudoingtome
De Name Escapes Me

in there, and it may be significant that there are so many. He hasn’t been overloading the big handicaps recently with entries, and the face that he’s went for it here, only reinforces my opinion that this race in particular is one he wants to win badly. Of those on that list, Anibale Fly has looked like a proper plot job for some time now, and his last run a fortnight ago, in the race Squouateur ran in, merely confirmed that, and he’s worth considering. He’s surely at least got a few lbs in hand. Tesseract stepped up to this kind of company in The Troytown, just finishing out of the frame, and he has potential for sure, though he’ll have to fulfil that potential to figure here, as this race is a step up from the Navan Showpiece. The majority of his are struggling to get in, which is a shame for White Arm in particular, as I feel he has loads more to offer, and we’ve surely not seen the last of him, while Close Shave is relatively high in the betting.

Not surprisingly, it’s not only JP who has loads entered, and as per, Gigginstown have loads in there……

A Genie In A Bottle tops the weights, but he was a tad flat at Newbury, and though I’m in rush to write him off, he’s not high on my list here, while Road To Riches is impossible to recommend. Potters Point, after his Kerry National heroics, hasn’t done that much and he’ll be of more interest to me in The Spring, while Attribution appeared to have his limitations exposed in The Foxrock. Those old stalwarts, Rogue Angel & Thunder and Roses, get their usual entries, but they’re both on recovery missions. I’ve sung their praises recently, as both being in relatively good form, but both have very poor runs to overcome, with Rogue Angel failing to fire at Navan & Aintree, while Thunder and Roses was desperate at Fairyhouse a fortnight ago. I think Thunder can be forgiven, it was too bad to be true, but debatable as to whether he’ll bounce back over this trip. Milsean will surely struggle to get in, but the novices Woods Well, and Sutton Manor have no such concerns, and both have had their moments so far this year. Of the pair, I’d definitely side with Sutton Manor, and his performance behind The Storyteller last weekend was decent. I liked him over hurdles, and I’ve liked how he’s began over fences, and though he obvious credential for this, he’s a horse I have in mind for The Irish National. That leaves us with General Principle. He travelled like a dream in his seasonal debut over hurdles, and looked the winner heading for home, but in hindsight, he maybe just folded a little tamely that day, and he was then a shade disappointing next time in The Troytown, and he never seemed to be travelling that day at all. He’s better than that, and I’m a big fan, and maybe he needed more of a break before The Troytown. Certainly his form of last year entitles him to claims here, and he’s certainly a big distraction to me again, he’s a decent horse, and just the type Elliot excels with.

Not surprisingly, Elliot is also mob handed, and not just with Giggs and JP horses. Ucello Conti was a surprising absentee from The Becher, but he’s ran well in this the last 2 years, and he’s on a nice enough mark. Same owners as Polidam, but they’re not shy in running theirs in the same race, and though Aintree is likely to be on the menu once more, he looks to have real each way possibilities here, which wouldn’t affect his chances in The National too much. Poormans Hill ran well enough in The Troytown, but his subsequent suggests he’ll just come up short, as should Space Cadet, who also ran well enough at Navan. Recent additions to the yard, Cocktails at Dawn, and Out Sam, both have plenty to find on UK form, though Out Sam is normally very popular, and he’s high enough in the initial market, though I don’t get it myself. It’s his final two who really catch the eye though, Jestream Jack, and Flaxen Flare.

I thought that Jetstream Jack went into The Thyestes as a very well handicapped horse, and he did run very well for a long way, but he just couldn’t cope with Champagne West, who was very definitely on his “A Game” that day, and put in what was undoubtedly one of the performances of the season. Jetstream fell close home that day, and he was on the backfoot when he came down, but that wasn’t the case at Punchestown in April, when he was looked to be coming into contention, when tipping up a few fences from home. His runs in between probably weren’t that inspiring, but I just feel that considering connections, and looking back at some of his better performances, both over fences and timber, he’s surely better than 140, and deserves some respect here. That brings us on to Flaxen Flare, who is one of my dark horses of the season. I like the way he was performing in the spring, he really caught the eye, and a soft unseat cost him a certain win at Tramore, before a very creditable second to Plinth at Killarney. Since then he’s been asked to chase home Apples Jade, and Min, and though those were impossible tasks, the fact he was there at all, just confirmed my suspicion that he was ripe for a big handicap this winter. Now it might be The Thyestes, or The Leapordstown Handicap that’s the plan, and he has the profile of an Elliot Cross Country Horse, but off of 138, and having been in good nick anyway, before chasing home those top notchers, then at 33’s, I’m having a bit of that.

On an equally appealing mark is Mall Dini. I had many a discussion about him last year, and he was always looking like a future star over fences. It’s not quite went exactly to plan, but he’s a bit more high profile now, and I’m not the only one who’s second guessing connections. He could take in any of the novice events at Cheltenham, and off his current mark, he could potentially “walk” one of the handicaps, either at The Festival or elsewhere. A quick look at some of the horses he’s chased home should tell you all you need to know about him. Quite simply a big winner waiting to happen……it’s just a question of where?

Apache Stronghold has made a couple of appearances since his long layoff, but has been comfortably beaten on both occasions. He could be sharper for those runs though, and not totally written off. The ability was certainly there, he chased home Vautour that day in The JLT, and he looked very special in his younger days. Noel Meade has another candidate in the same ownership, in the shape of Bonny Kate. Admirable sort, who rarely runs a bad one, and if you’re looking for one at a price, who’ll be much shorter on the day, looks a guaranteed runner, and should be thereabouts, then she’s the one for you. 25’s is a great price. Another familiar face from the Meade yard is Texas Jack, but he’s pretty much fully exposed, and hard to see him having the legs of some of the youngsters here, though he has been given a chance by the handicapper. I just can’t see it though.

Dell’ Arca is an interesting entry from these shores, and before his no show over hurdles last time, he looked in good order at Newbury. Very rarely seen over fences, it has the look of a speculative entry at the moment, and best wait to see how he is in The International Hurdle on Saturday, which admittedly, wouldn’t be the most traditional prep race for this.

One horse who made a good impression during the summer was The Wests Awake. He did little wrong, and his recent win over Woods Well, displayed plenty of attributes needed for this, and off of 140, he looks way ahead of his mark on that evidence. Very definitely one to consider at 25’s.

As ever with these races, there are a few regulars, who are more than capable, but just seem to lack that extra gear, and always come up just short, but usually run their race. Jarob, Call The Taxie, Three Stars, Bay of Freedom, and Forever Gold all fit that bill. Hard to envisage any of them challenging at the business end, but Bay of Freedom did run very well in The Kerry National, and Forever Gold ran a cracker last time behind Presenting Percy.

A horse I’ve always had a soft spot for is Dromnea. He couldn’t have been more impressive at Listowel in September, and he travelled well until close home in The Munster National, where he just couldn’t cope with Total Recall. He’s failed to get there in the last two renewals of this, but he did run very well in it 2 years back, and despite those recent reverses, I just suspect he’s better than ever this year, and he’s an interesting each way prospect at 33’s.

I thought the sky was the limit for On Fiddlers Green, after his Roscommon romp in June, but the wheels have totally come off since, and I’m not convinced this is the race for him. I’ll probably bet him in the coming months, but it will surely be at Fairyhouse or Punchestown in the spring. Full Cry looks up against it as well, while I have absolutely no idea about Jospeh O’Briens recent recruit from France, Vieux Morvan.

One horse who made the notebook recently was Fine Theatre. I thought he ran a fine race over timber last time, and although Folsom Blue and Westerner Point have hardly franked the form since, or General Principle for that matter, I’m in no rush to write him off as a 33-1 “no hoper”, and he’s one of the more interesting ones at a price. In the same bracket, I have Red Devils Lad, Phil’s Magic, and Baily Moon. Red Devils Lad is one the latest to benefit from a switch out of the troubled Rebecca Curtis yard. He dismantled a strong field at Navan a couple of weeks, back, nothing was getting past him, and if he sneaked in, and showed that attitude again, then he really could trouble a few of the principals. Phils Magic is never far way, he never runs a bad one, and of those who chased Total Recall home at Limerick. He ran a more than respectable race at Cheltenham last time, and bizarrely, was dropped 4 lb’s. I’m happy to forgive Baily Moon his last run, and before that he looked very progressive. Unlikely he’ll get in anyway, and highly unlikely to get his ground, but unseasonal good going might see a few above drop out, and that would certainly make me re-visit him.

Youcantcallherthat, He Rock’s, and Magic of Light might just struggle to get in, though I’ll have another look if they actually make it.

This is a race where I’d like an early go, though this might be fraught with danger, as it’s hard to see Polidam not going close here. Well regarded by connections last year, in good hands, impressive winner in The Foxrock, ahead of his mark, and clearly laid out for this. Very very hard to crab as short as 4’s, and though I will always try to take on the fav this far out, he looks absolutely rock solid.

Try I will though, and I think it’ll be combined stakes on these three. Oscar Knight should go very close, and the 20’s is a smashing Ante-Post Price, this is his race, he won’t be far away, and he won’t be that price on the day. I’ll bet him once the market has a bit more depth, as his price should hold (I hope). Squouateur is riskier. As much as he’s a key horse for me this year, The Kim Muir could very well be the target, and a win here could scupper those plans. Ideally a place here would do for me, but I have to cover just in case, and I’ll take 10’s or 11’s him to win. I’ll watch the market. Finally, I’m going with Flaxen Flare, and I’ve already had a go at the 33’s each way. I’m just glad to see him finally get an entry for one of these big handicaps, as since Tramore, I thought he be ideal for them, and no way is he a 33-1 shot. If he doesn’t trap here, I’ll wade in again the next time he gets an entry, as I’m convinced he has a big one in him.

As I said, Polidam, so hard to beat, but these are/will be the bets…….

Squouateur Win 11’s
Oscar Knight EW 20’s
Flaxen Flare EW 33’s

GL