The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Irish National 2017

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Irish National 2017

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 62 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1290388
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16282

    124 entries, and 28 of them, from Gordon Elliot alone.

    http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=670448&r_date=2017-04-17#raceTabs=lc_

    Impossible to take a strong view at this stage, with both Cheltenham on the horizon, and Aintree taking stage before this is run.

    I’ll have a proper look after Aintree, when things should be just that little bit clearer. Weights are framed though, and that should at least assist in spotting potential plots. Race is priced up by Boylesports and Bet365, but I won’t be parting with my cash any time soon. Don’t stop me looking though :whistle:

    Minella Foru & Oscar Knight – Minella gave me a great day in The Paddy Power last season, before going off the radar. Re-appeared over hurdles a couple of weeks back, and that was clearly a pipe opener for him. He’s very nicely weighted, and he looks a live candidate. I thought he would be a nice price, but both firms aren’t fooled, and he’s joint third fav. Oscar went so close to landing the big Leapordstown prize this season, with only a last fence blunder depriving him of victory. I was on him that day, and he’ll be hard to desert here, as he looks very well treated, and he swerves Cheltenham14’s & 25’s

    Rogue Angel & Thunder and Roses – Both former winners, and though in the frame for Aintree, we’ve seen enough this year to see that they could easily land it again. 33’s & 20’s

    Fletchers Flyer – I’ve always had this race in mind for him, and he looks way overpriced with Bet365. 25’s

    Shutthefrontdoor & Holywell – STFD is another former winner, and all season it’s looked as if he a long term goal, and this could just be it. He’s very well handicapped, and this could also apply to Holywell. I’ve already bet him for The Ultima, and if, as expected, he runs well there, they must surely consider a follow up here, and he’s a very, very, intriguing entry. 25’s and 20’s

    General Principle, Lord Scoundrel & Tiger Roll – These catch my eye the most of the massive Gigginstown entry. Tiger Roll’s victory in The Munster National, was one of the most impressive Handicap victories I’ve ever seen, and he didn’t get the credit he deserved. Seriously, a potential star. I’m hoping for a big Cheltenham from him, and if I’ve got him right, this would be very much a secondary plan. They’ve been very careful with Lord Scoundrel, and he’s got a big one in him for sure. He’s certainly no 25-1 shot. On the face of it, General Principle has been disappointing, but I just suspect that he’s way better than what we’ve seen so far, and even at this early stage, he’s not far off being my #1 fancy. If pushed to bet one just now it would probably be him, especially with him being spared The Leinster National on Sunday, but all 3 of these are way overpriced. 33’s, 25’s, and 33’s

    Cause of Causes & Seeyouatmidnight – My 2 favourite horses in training, but happy to leave them here for now. CoC is my NAP of the meeting at Cheltenham for The Cross Country, and he’s also my long term fancy for Aintree (again). His season is surely geared around those 2 meetings, while SYAM is surely only entered here in the event that his run at Ayr doesn’t go according to plan. 25’s and 33’s

    Squouateur – One of my bets for The Kim Muir, and this carefully campaigned horse has the ability to go close in both these races. 20’s

    Ballynagour – Been singing his praises on The Midlands National thread, and quite simply, the combination of his nice mark, and the sun on his back, should see him run a big race in one of the spring marathons. Having bet him for Uttoxeter, I hope he doesn’t have his day in the sun here. 33’s

    Bachasson, Pleasant Company, and The Crafty Butcher – My idea of the pick of the WPM contingent. Bachasson and Pleasant Company were impressive winners last time, while TCB was another who was went close at Leaporsdstown in The Paddy Power. I hope that Pleasant Company heads to Aintree, and I’d be very keen on Bachasson. He could just have a few pounds in hand. 25’s, 16’s, and 12’s

    I really will have to leave it at that, there are just too many who catch the eye, and several very nice animals who I haven’t mentioned. A fantastic entry.

    Be madness to have a bet just now, but my early shortlist would be……

    Minella Foru
    Fletchers Flyer
    General Principle
    Lord Scoundrel
    Bachasson
    Squouateur

    #1290396
    pagegriff1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 18

    Afraid to say already had a punt. Fletchers Flyer as me thinks its been aimed at this for sometime so good to see your comments

    #1290762
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16282

    First bets struck for me, and it’s General Principle at 40’s. I just think, looking at his runs so far this year, that they haven’t really pushed the button with him, and I can’t resist that price, it just looks too big. He’s my #1.

    Also with Fletchers Flyers at 32’s

    #1293757
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7867

    Only just realised that Ballynagour bled a while back, which always puts me off a horse. Wish I’d read the OP before Cheltenham with regards Tiger Roll and CoC’s#mustconcentratemore

    #1294331
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8704

    I dont need to mention that I too have stayed loyal to Shutthefrontdoor Bob but the horse I fancy for this would definitely not be running had he won the RSA,he’d be geared to a Cheltenham Gold cup campaign but Alpha des Obeaux blotted his copybook too.In fact his run against ‘Might Bite’ had plodder written all over him and this trip will suit Mouses charge.I’ve just taken the 27’s on the machine in more hope than anger. :unsure:

    #1294371
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8113

    I think FOXROCK very much looks in the mould of a Grand National winner. I’ve had
    a punt, partly due to a quote that from Ted Walsh (or perhaps a misquote) that the owner, Barry Connell,
    could run him at Aintree if it were a dry April. Turns out that the owner, Barry Connell, actually says
    the opposite. I’m now not over confident he will head there, and if he doesn’t, he will definitely head here.
    So to cover my a** I’m availing myself of the 20/1 NRNB offered by Boylesports. Katy Walsh will be on him,
    having won on him the last 4 times out. I wish he would go for the National, Connell has said that if he
    does go for the Irish version, he could run in the National next year. That’s all well and good, but if
    he’s as good as I’m hoping, he wont be be 11st 2lbs next year. Either way, he’s 25/1 for one and 20/1 for
    the other, so it’s worth while having a bet on both as he’s NRNB with plenty in the National, and the also
    NRNB with Boylesports (hats off to them) for the Irish national.

    I’ll probably have another punt in this before the day, The Crafty Butcher could be of interest, but I’m not
    sure he’ll make the cut. Another that does interest me is PENDRA. He’s 66/1, or 50/1 NRNB for
    the National, and 33/1, or 25/1 NRNB with Boylesports for this. He looked the winner all over in the Kim Muir
    until mugged close home by Domesday Book. He won the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot at the tail end of 2015, and ran
    well enough in the National last year, but tired towards the end, so trip should be ideal here. I’m hoping some
    of the others go NRNB, with the 33s still available, but if he looks like shortening 25s will do.

    I didn’t have the best of Cheltenhams this year, so I’m hoping for a good Aintree and Punchestown to finish
    the jumps season off well. Best of luck to all in the same boat :good:

    #1294457
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4166

    I had a look at this race tonight and noticed that Arbre De Vie actually unseated in the NH chase. I never actually noticed as i was more concerned with Tiger Roll at the time.

    He seemed to be going quite well at the time and just clipped the heels of a horse in front who went across him. It was 3 fences out so difficult to say he would of won but certainly would of been on the premises. He was well backed that day also if i remember rightly.

    Seems 16-1 is the general price so backed him at that NRNB to win with Boyles

    #1294464
    Lemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 499

    I am the same as you BigG and I want to wait for a general NRNB as well, but I like 2 in this and have taken that offer with Boylesports.

    I like Abolitionist 14-1 each way, and Fketchers Flyer 16-1 each way also.

    #1294475
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16282

    Watch Your Bets

    There have been several withdrawals at the recent forfeit stage, but many firms haven’t taken them out, including Betfair Exchange. A few who wouldn’t have caught the imagination anyway, but there are some of the bigger names amongst them.

    I hope this is accurate, and I think this is the majority of them……….

    Don Poli
    Minella Rocco
    Martello Tower
    Coney Island
    Edwulf
    Un Temps Pour Tout
    Holywell
    Forever Gold
    Doctor Harper
    Goodtoknow
    Vic’s Canvas
    Bishops Road
    Gangster
    Heron Heights
    Looking Well
    Prince of Scars
    Road To Riches
    Rogue Trader
    Vyta Du Roc
    Gevery Chambertin
    Flaxen Flare
    Texas Jack
    Damut
    Sonny B

    #1294561
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6288

    Agree with Lemons again with Fletchers Flyer 20/1 at Coral looks decent to

    #1294564
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8113

    I am the same as you BigG and I want to wait for a general NRNB as well, but I like 2 in this and have taken that offer with Boylesports.

    I like Abolitionist 14-1 each way, and Fketchers Flyer 16-1 each way also.

    Yep, it’s good to have the safeguard of NRNB Lemons. Good luck with both of them :good:

    #1296368
    fivelongdays
    Participant
    • Total Posts 626

    I have a soft spot for this race, and while I’ll be giving the card a proper run-through once the final decs are out, I would be a massive hypocrite not to follow up my 2018 Grand National Bet on Tiger Roll with a 2017 Irish National bet on the same horse.

    He’ll get the trip, has some class to him, should be a fairly low weight, 16s, looks to fit all the trends (ie he’s the sort of horse that wins this), what’s not to like?

    As I explained earlier, though, I’ll probably have a couple of other horses running for me in this, too.

    Twitter=@PGHenn

    So don't run, just like the others always do

    #1296374
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16282

    There’s nothing “not to like” FLD, I bloody love him haha

    Good luck with him in this, and I’ll be having him on side wherever he goes next year.

    #1296440
    Voleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 657

    With my long range fancy for this Forever Gold seemingly disappearing without a trace, I don’t have much of a hold on what looks a very competitive affair. However, the HRI website describes the going in Fairyhouse as GY, Y in places, with a note about watering if necessary. Accuweather predicts 3 showery days in between now and the 17th, and if it should come up GS, Sft in places I’ll take a chance on Foxrock 20/1.

    Other than that I’ve gone for Oscar Knight 33/1 and Baie Des Iles 25/1.

    #1296623
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3813

    I’ve backed Haymount at 25-1 for this. It’s hard to see his run for the first half of the Hunt Cup at Cheltenham as he is kept well covered up. His jumping doesn’t look great but I think this may be because he’s being kept under a tight hold. It’s better for the second half and he stays on well at the end. I think there’s scope for this horse to improve more.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 62 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.